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Stock Opinions by Andrey Omelchak

COMMENT
Panic pricing has settled in.

Someone who really understands the value of a security can really find a lot of bargains on days like these. You can make a case that the overall market is expensive. But at the same time, some of the individual securities underneath are at panic-level pricing, even high-quality ones.

There's been quite a selloff already. Some stocks are down 20, 30, even 40%. Even if you apply the worst-case scenario on the tariff front, many securities are at very attractive buying levels at this time.

COMMENT
Investing in Canada.

Every day in Canada you hear about tariffs, and the concern is well warranted. Businesses and stocks will be impacted. As well, consumer confidence and business confidence are at all-time lows. 

At the same time, some stocks are not impacted by tariffs at all. The underlying businesses are doing really well and the business prospects are good. Yet they've been caught in the fund-flow dynamics, where nobody wants to invest in Canada. At some point, that will reverse in the opposite direction.

So it's a really good time to buy those securities.

COMMENT
Post-tariff world.

Based on all the geopolitical and economic news, at some point fatigue settles in. Usually takes several months to do that. Eventually, investors will be able to dissect securities based on whether or not they're impacted by tariffs and by how much. 

Even if the news flow changes from the White House on a daily basis, big money managers will have picked their spots to buy Canadian stocks, and the fund flow dynamics will become increasingly positive. He likes to focus on investments that aren't impacted by things outside his control, like tariffs.

BUY

Great company and management. Delivers very good risk-adjusted returns, very high ROE. Likes that they can reprice loans at a very fast rate. Need to see additional diversification of funding sources; if so, would warrant a higher multiple. UK acquisition highly accretive, which will play out over 12-24 months.

Pullback is unwarranted, good time to buy. Concern about credit quality, but so far credit experience has been good. 

WEAK BUY
Canadian telcos.

If you're looking for stable dividend stocks, it's a good place to put capital to work. You can feel safe with those dividends, but don't expect to generate outsized returns over the investment cycle. 

You need to sort stock candidates into categories: true long-term compounders, trading stocks, or somewhere in between. Canadian telcos are somewhere in between. Buy them, but slowly, if you're happy to only get the dividend. He wouldn't accumulate aggressively. If competition pops up in Canada, that would not be good.

WATCH

Great company. Management's done well on M&A front. Delayed financials, not a good sign; a US company they own is being investigated. Red flag. He still has faith in management. Watch the next month very carefully; further delay is a double-red flag, resolution would represent a very strong buying opportunity.

BUY

Exposed to tariffs by only a small extent. What they are exposed to is the Canadian consumer, who might already be scaling back. It was one of his Top Picks last time around, mainly because added a lot of capacity in US. Concern around SBUX, its biggest client in the US; last quarter indicated this relationship is working. Interesting at these levels.

DON'T BUY
Fewer flights being booked to US.

Over last 5 years, hasn't generated much stock price appreciation. Trading stock, not buy and hold. New capacity coming to market, consumer being more cautious. Not great environment to buy. Cashflow will be under pressure.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

High quality. Can remain dormant for a while, but when you get paid you really get paid well. Diligent capital allocators. Nice dividend, buying back stock. Acquisitions are accretive. Quite illiquid. Exposed to equity markets.

DON'T BUY

Medium-quality, in the competitive industrial space. Not a long-term compounder. Exposed to all kinds of risks including tariffs. Capital intensive; real FCF not as high as it appears. 

COMMENT
Favourite sectors.

He likes technology companies, as they're capital-light businesses. Agile business models. Revenues are usually sticky. High recurring revenue. With a great management team, you're often looking at margin expansion as well. 

Be careful not to overpay for this type of business. That's been hard over the last few years, but the current environment brings good opportunities.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Best capital allocator in the world, and probably the best investor of all time. Sitting on a record pile of cash. Be cautious, as it's exposed to the equity markets. Built to withstand the storm. Long term, takes advantage of unique opportunities in the market. Well positioned to outperform the broader market over an extended period of time. High faith in succession plans.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Up 13%)

Acquisition integrated extremely well. Has proven whole business model. One of the bests compounders in Canada. Increasing opportunities to deploy capital. Expecting another acquisition this year. Very strong buy at these levels.

Ideal would be to own the whole ecosystem of LMN, TOI, and CSU. But LMN is the most exciting one today.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Down 14%)

Took write downs on non-core business operations. Now focused on growing highly profitable businesses that are generating very good combined ratios, both in Canada and US. Book value per share has increased. Great buying opportunity. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Up 3%)

Solid hold over the longer term, need patience. Accumulate on any pullback. Volatility of Latin American markets is not helping, so watch that. Understands how to monetize recent acquisition.

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