
President & CIO at LionGuard Capital Management
Member since: May '16 · 323 Opinions
As much as possible, he tries to avoid making macro calls. Predicting exchange rates, interest rates, or commodity prices is not how he likes to allocate capital. Odds of successfully making predictions outside of the market are very low. Instead, he'd rather predict things that are structural and highly predictable.
Despite the interest rate paths to be taken by the BOC and the Fed, he's very bullish on some structural themes that should compound capital at very high rates of return for an extended period of time. Adverse interest rates would, of course, have a dampening effect on market multiples.
If you don't overpay for a business, you like it fundamentally, and it's exposed to a growing area, you should be in a really good position irrespective of interest rates.
Very bullish on company and on modular housing, especially with our nation-building projects. Strongly recommends to not take profits; just because it's up ~100% in 12 months, doesn't mean you have to sell. More to go. High FCF yield. He expects upward pressure on pricing for housing units. High insider ownership.
Exploring data centre opportunities. Building data centres outside urban centres requires just this type of housing.
The de facto place to go to take advantage of the AI revolution. Whether this continues is a very difficult question. Competition is starting to creep up, but remains to be seen whether they can do anything of scale. He'd be surprised if NVDA's economics are the same 5 years from now.
Be careful, as you're betting on fund flow dynamics around AI. Investors might consider it time to move to the next layer of investments that can benefit from AI (and are more predictable than chip economics several years from now).
What's happening in the Strait of Hormuz solidifies the need for this industry. He's concerned whether its technology is really that different from competitors, of which there are many. This could impact margins. Many companies do what they do, and each country will want to support its home-based industry. Be careful at these multiples.
Both good companies. To choose is a difficult choice, you'd have to make a call on their respective industries. As well, is the industry structurally challenged by AI -- those concerns are very much overblown.
WSP is exceptionally well run, with an exceptional CEO. STN is the same. Despite AI concerns, business models remain intact. AI will bring some changes in monetization of activities, and has already bettered their businesses. You can't do what they do via AI alone, it's much more complex.
He'd own both in equal weight.
(Note the short timeframe.) Very bullish. Just because it's up 100%, doesn't mean it's time to sell. Exceptional backlog growth, margin expansion. Guidance is actually very conservative. Huge opportunity for data centres. Participating in Ring of Fire, which he's bullish on. More room to run over next several years.
(Note the short timeframe.) Stock's flat, but underlying business economics keep improving. Quite a bit of volatility in the insurance space in general, due to a softening cycle. This company does specialty insurance, but it's being tarred with the same brush as general insurers.
Remains constructive. Spent a lot of $$ to build excess capacity in US, and now in process of filling it. That's been a challenge, with a number of missteps. He's been disappointed with the execution. Needs patience, but believes you'll be rewarded. Quite a bit of leverage.
Be cautious having this as your biggest position.