President & CIO at LionGuard Capital Management
Member since: May '16 · 170 Opinions
A lot of capital has fled Canada to invest in U.S. AI, because there are few Canadian places to. Rates are falling and risk appetite is rising. Stock mispricings are rare and don't last long, but he looks for mispriced compounders but offer long-term growth. Often, they are take-out targets, because they are mispriced. He avoids resource stocks because they don't create value in the cycle and they misallocate capital; resources are a trade, not investment. Has no idea where oil prices are going.
For the past 10-15 years, it's been one of the best banks, outperforming. Their purchase of Canadian Western Bank is transformative, but is a little skeptical about how synergistic the deal will be, but CWB is a good franchise and there will be some synergy. NA will do well overall. For the next decade, NA has a smaller base to grow than TD, but their earning power will outstrip TD. That said, he would suggest only selling TD marginally to buy NA.
Is experiencing significant, but transitory issues. NA will do well overall. For the next decade, NA has a smaller base to grow than TD, but their earning power will outstrip TD. That said, he would suggest only selling TD marginally to buy NA.
The pilot strike would be a big deal and cost AC a lot of money. This is not a good business, highly cyclical and competitive and prone to many things like oil prices. It's a trade, at best. Is cautious. A hold, not buy, until the strike resolves. Stay away from AC.
A true compounder in Canada. Respects management, but it's fallen from its summer peak due to profit-taking. It's a buying opportunity now. Will grow earnings in double digits for many years. Are exposed to the right verticals. Fine management.
Has done very well, but is concerned about the concentration of its clients (steel structures). Control by the family isn't necessarily bad. DRX benefits from infrastructure.
National Bank is buying it. Price of shares of CWB has risen because of National's performance. NA is paying more than fair value for CWB. Is confident the deal will happen.
Has been a wild ride in past years, but they are now on the right path under current managers. Metrics like margin expansion look fine. Is now trading at a huge discount to intrinsic value and can re-rate further as performance continues.
Is exposed to all the right verticals. They make transformers to optimize energy, driven by the AI boom (the need for data centres). There's still upside despite the huge rally. Business is booming, and the growth trajectory is good. Trades at 18x PE, but growth makes the future PE reasonable.
Has been dormant for many years, but has been one of the best Canadian compounders. They're not in a high-growth industries, but TVK can make highly accretive acquisitions. Earnings power is high. Have a strong balance sheet and capital to deploy. Are very good at synergizing, but doubts they can be as accretive when buying larger companies. Is a solid hold.
A great small-cap, a compounder, enjoying booming business in supply chain for hospitals. Its in the best space for the last 15 years. Growth trajectory will continue for years. Buy pullbacks.
Good and innovative. They offer learning software that companies use to train employees and clients. His concern is that the founder and senior leadership have sold a lot of shares--a big red flag. Also, there's a lot of competition.
Auto parts is a terrible business. It demands heavy capital and constantly needs investment in production facilities. Also, it's highly competitive. The PE looks cheap, but it's capital heavy. Avoid.
Is very cyclical. See comments about Martinrea.
Recently volatile because they lost a customer in Michigan, but later gained a new client. Their business won't disappear and they are well run. Likes how the family runs this business. Good to hold with decent upside.