Alimentation Couche-TardATD.TODON'T BUYJul 08, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 08, 2026. Market Open.
They failed 7-11 takeover was an overhang and overall convenience store sales have been weak in the U.S. So, ATD is offering more fresh food and prepared meals in their stores. They are seeing good results. Also, they have benefited from the volatile gasoline market from the US-Iran war; they sourced from lower-cost places. He expects them to buy more stores.
It sees volatility from the changing oil price; managers can't predict where fuel margins are going. They saw a breakout quarter recently, driven by wide fuel margins. Management has built a supply chain from several suppliers to keep prices low, despite the oil price spike recently. Their last earnings beat was major. Next quarter could be more volatile as the oil price falls. ATD is hitting new highs. There could be profit-taking before the stock price resumes going up.
Great quarter, beat by 35% on fuel. Margins were way up, 30% YOY. Same-store sales were also up. Market doesn't like fuel-based results, as it feels they're transitory. Good grower and compounder, good long-term story. He models 14% EPS growth; trading at 25x for quality, good balance sheet, M&A. Still not a bad entry point.
Growth-by-acquisition story, plus a little bit of organic growth. Assumes more tuck-in acquisitions over time. Exposure to inflation that consumers are paying every day. Share buybacks and dividend growth. Would perform well if we're facing a 1970s-type energy crisis.
One way to grow would be to expand its geographic footprint. Yield is 1.07%.
Really good at acquiring and integrating. Growing revenues, most recently because fuel prices are higher. Consumers aren't spending more $$ in existing stores. Excellent operators. In general, he's staying away from the consumer (the downside factor in the inflation story).
Hard to see multiple expansion unless there's some kind of catalyst.
Buy the good ones when they're stalling out. Market fears that inflation will hit the consumer at the pumps, and then at the convenience store level. Things look pretty good. High quality. Trying to grow 12-14%, trades at high multiple.
Cheaper than peers. Attractive place for new capital to start building a position.
Restarted share buybacks. Lots of M&A to be had. Growth of 3-5% a year, with a nice tailwind to double-digit earnings growth for a long time. Results starting to improve. Food offerings aren't as good as some US competitors, and it's fixing that. Not exceptionally cheap, but a great long-term investment.
It's seen a 20% run from last year. Defensive characteristics, but yield is less than 1%. After 7-Eleven miss, now back to basics. She's nervous about the health of the consumer. Not on her radar.