Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-T)

Seeking new West Coast terminal to export more potash. Prices are just starting to trend a bit higher, which means demand is starting to pick up and supply is going down. Long term, warmer temperatures will mean growing seasons will be more difficult, so fertilizer demand should continue to rise. Yield is 3%.

Understand that commodity prices are always volatile in the short term. Up 27% YTD, 15% over 5 years, but 10 years has been 6%, 15 years has been 10%. So total return over time should be 5-10%. He doesn't offer price targets. 

Stock's come back on relief from tariffs. Globally, demand for agriculture and fertilizer continues. Well positioned. Be aware that this name will be choppy, as we're not out of the tariff woods yet. More of a speculative play.

Added to his portfolio in January. Has a long way to climb back, though not necessarily to the peaks of 2022. Prices of its component commodities are rising, amidst the backdrop of slowly improving prices for major agricultural cash crops. Margins are improving in South America. 

Likes the chart, turned a corner last summer. Lots of upside. Discounted valuation. Prolifically buying back shares. Yield is ~3.7-3.8%, above its long-run average.

Brand-new position for him. Seems to be breaking out of resistance after basing. Former peaks are resistance targets. Likes it as part of his commodity complex. Bought his first 2% because of the breakout. If it breaks down from resistance, he'll take one leg out. If it fails long-term support, he'll get totally out. Yield is 3.68%.

World's largest crop-nutrient business. Upstream production is vertically integrated with downstream retail. Gamechanger for him is that commodity price has bottomed for potash, nitrogen, and phosphate. Cash crop commodity prices are also slowly improving. 

Management changes. Operational changes to improve profitability. Trading at 1.1x book. Good luck tariffing potash, as the US produces only 5% of what it needs, importing 70% of requirements from Canada. Yield is 4.29%.

World's largest ag-crop nutrient business. Vertically integrated. Believes prices for its input commodities have bottomed, supported by high and rising cash-crop prices. Farmers have to replace nutrients in soil, which was delayed while prices were so high. Trades at book value. Bounced off lows, but still sees upside. In his dividend growers mandate. Yield is 4%.

Does not own shares. Better options for commodity investors. Dividend is strong, but potash in abundance throughout the globe. Would prefer Teck Resources. 

Sounds counterintuitive, but WFG and trees are going to be beneficiaries. US still needs them, just going to pay higher prices.

GRT.UN is a good name. PKI works well here. Materials sector, with a name like NTR. 

There's even a part of the TSX that does well with a falling CAD, as earnings get amplified.

Farming has not been great for investments so profits from fertilizer businesses are down. However the cycle could change. Don't buy today except if you want the dividend - wait for the turn which should allow it to run for a while.

Weakness in potash prices, but demand starting to improve, especially in Brazil. Don't focus just on potash, remember its retail segment is the largest in the US with about 22% market share. Decent opportunity to add exposure.

Commodity index hasn't done well either, and NTR is somewhat correlated with that. Unperformed, but now forming a base. Not seeing a strong impetus for stock to increase. Commodities are taking a backseat to tech and growth.

Longer term, will be a fantastic play as fertilizer demand grows. But not now.

As the world urbanizes, there's less farmland. This name will benefit as the population grows in the decades ahead. On the cheap side. Missing earnings. Correcting from the Covid runup. Likes the value here and the risk/return. One of his bigger positions.