Tamarack Valley EnergyTVE.TOBUYJan 21, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 02, 2026. Market Open.
(Note: Doesn't own, but he does own HWX and likes the upcoming merger.)
In oil sands, but not one of the major players. Merger consolidates 2 names in the region, should see a lot of cost savings. Merged entity will be a bigger player, grabbing more institutional attention. You can play the merger through either company.
Using water-flood technology to pick up production. Great growth, expecting 15% production growth in the next 6 months. Generates lots of cash. Recently increased dividend by 25%, increasing share buybacks.
International investors are coming back to Canada for energy. Foresees multiple expansion as well as pricing power. Yield is 1.19%.
Like both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile. He expects oil to return to the $70s, but it will take time to clear the Strait of Hormuz.
Management is solid and there has been recent insider buying. The balance sheet is very strong and good earnings/cash flow growth is expected. It can't control commodity prices but can control its costs and production (both good). The dividend is well-covered and has growth potential. Stock momentum is solid. It may be an acquisition target. Its drilling has shown good success and its assets are quality producers. There is a lot to like here.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Really well run. Successfully pivoted away from mature assets with limited running room. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater. At the bleeding edge of using water flooding, phenomenal results. Expects a good report on year-end reserves (company expects at least 25 years of running room in this play). Continued success should bring multiple expansion. Sees 50-ish% upside from here with $60-70 oil over next 1-2 years.
A significantly cheaper alternative to HWX. Equally good management and properties, with same amount of running room and perhaps even more delineated inventory. Core holding for him, doesn't anticipate trimming.