CIO at Boston Private
Member since: Dec '21 · 141 Opinions
It reports tomorrow. Everyone is questioning the consumer so she will be watching for ongoing subscriber growth. COST could benefit from richer households trading down in their shopping.
We'll continue to see the consumer transition away from discretionary to staples. And there will be brand power in staples.
Consumer staples have badly lagged this year, but are clearly a defensive play. Food and energy inflation have shrunk consumer discretionary spending. Not surprised to see household retailers trade. The challenge for staples in recent years is their lean margins, but she expects a shift given disinflation.
Revenues are flat, but the PE is high. The top and bottom lines need to increase and this could happen if there's demand for the iPhone 15 Pro, which looks promising. But also, is the consumer tapped out? Headwinds can also come from China which accounts for 19% of their revenues, given government intervention and the new Huawei phone competing for sales.
Oracle will want to hear about their OCI infrastructure and the autonomous database--when will they be a tailwind for growth. She expects a lot of AI talk.
Demand will continue growing because EVs need it. Also, supply/demand is mismatched because it takes 10-12 years to get a new mine going.
Have undperformed this year, but this will enjoy clean energy growth as a tailwind.
She wants to hear about the software cycle: is demand stabilizing and the sales cycle elongating. Adobe will talk about AI.
For growth, the street sees Apple as a staple that commands pricing power. Apple couldn't meet demand for the 14 Pro, so the price of the 15 Pro will be higher. The company has levers to pull. For years, Amazon spent too much money to fuel growth, but that limited margins. Any company has to spend money on AI. Overall, Amazon is in a Goldilocks period: they will benefit from existing spending/investments, and they will improve margins for the next few quarters, but spending will resume again. Apple hasn't pulled those levers yet, but the street is giving it a premium, and demand for products is not inelastic. Watch demand in the next 2-3 replacement cycles.
For growth, the street sees Apple as a staple that commands pricing power. Apple couldn't meet demand for the 14 Pro, so the price of the 15 Pro will be higher. The company has levers to pull. For years, Amazon spent too much money to fuel growth, but that limited margins. Any company has to spend money on AI. Overall, Amazon is in a Goldilocks period: they will benefit from existing spending/investments, and they will improve margins for the next few quarters, but spending will resume again. Apple hasn't pulled those levers yet, but the street is giving it a premium, and demand for products is not inelastic. Watch demand in the next 2-3 replacement cycles.
Likes the sector now. Delinquencies have been confined to office real estate, and we're near the end of interest rate hikes.
The rally continues because earnings continue to deliver. Consensus expects the topline to see some slowing, but better margins will make up for that. Can we continue to deliver that topline into 2024? Her concern is that the rest of the world (ex-USA) is rapidly contracting. The market expected China's reopening to drive demand for cyclicals like energy and materials, but have lagged this year--Chinese demand wasn't there.
Parts of healthcare are doing very well: equipment, disposables, more surgical procedures, managed care. Does this translate into stronger earnings and growth even during an economic contraction?
The trough in earnings for energy isn't there yet. There has to be better earnings to entice more investment in energy. Also, China wants to offer more stimulus in green energy.
Their direct-to-consumer business is increasingly important so that it recaptures margins. The consumer will be cautious heading into the holiday season. Inventories will be important when Nike reports Thursday.