Chief Market Strategist at Virtus Investment Partners
Member since: Oct '21 · 489 Opinions
He bought it Oct. 31 and he still has a small profit on it. Can't believe it's fallen from $348 in early December (now $250). It's pulling back with Bitcoin, both volatile which you must accept.
The homebuilders were in a tough spot entering this year, because of higher interest rates. Also, 13% of the construction industry consists of undocumented workers. If Trump cracks down on such workers, these will drive up labour costs and home prices.
Nat gas is an opportunity. We're working off existing inventories and excess supply. Also, nat gas feeds the insatiable demand for energy that's used by data centres.
There will be more volatility and range expansion in markets next year will benefit the brokers.
It hit a new high today, so don't reach for it here, if you don't yet own it. There will be chances to buy it lower later. If you hold it and are long, have a stop in place. $66 is a critical price point, being previous resistance. The volatility won't go away on this stock.
On Oct. 31 to Dec. 6, he was up 91%, today 48%. That is the volatility of cryptos. Bitcoin's support is $85,000. If it breaks below that and you're long, you should take some exposure off. Risky. Remember that 10-year-yield are moving up again, towards their highs for the year.
He still believes in the cyber security thesis. Fortinet has a more reasonable valuation vs. CRWD and PANW, but CRWD is gaining a lot of market share, having rebounded from the summer outage.
This and UAL were momentum plays, and he chased when the momentum began to build and he's been rewarded. True, he was skeptical about their fundamentals.
He's owned this for 24 months and done very well, but you have to wait to enter it now, if you don't own it. This year, their revenue growth accelerated faster than analyst expectations. In 2023, it was 6%, 15% in 2024 and in 2025, he will ring the register. He suspects growth will plateau.
The utilities sector has outperformed this year, so his holding has outgrown his portfolio weighting. It's a little expensive historically, now trading at 26X PE.
It feeds into the travel theme, surprising in 2024. Cruise lines and airlines did well this year.
A record 60 million watched he Mike Tyson fight, live. They have 280 million subscribers. They will stream Christmas Day NFL football with Beyonce performing at halftime. People will tune in--he will. Shares are popping after the Tyson fight, but what is not priced into shares is the continued opportunity for Netflix to participate in live events.
Shares are down over 13% the past month. Hold for the long term. This could fall to the low-$60s and he would consider picking up shares then. He's long owned this for himself and clients.
Is up 13% for the year, but most of those gains happened in January, driven by AI hopes. MSFT is spending a lot on AI. The stock is running in place, and expects it to restart its positive momentum. However, we need to first see benefit coming from their AI spending. Near-term, the tech winners in AI are Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia. But set your expectations for MSFT for the long term.