The S&P is approaching its 200-day moving average of 4,326. Only 12 days in, August is the best month for M&A since last November. Growth funds the past week have since the largest inflow since December. Same with equity flows in the past 8 weeks. Taxable fixed-income has reversed 18 weeks of outflows with 2 weeks of inflows.
He's waiting for the world to change. He sold some S&P futures on the morning of the last inflation report and hasn't made any moves yet. There's no clarity in inflation, rates or tariffs. There is overwhelming pessimism in the market which gives rise to a trading opportunity, which is a bit of optimism. Also, lumber, copper and wheat are down over 20% or more since the winter. Even gasoline and crude oil are down (the latter 12% from the recent peak).
He's holding a little longer. Sometimes you make lousy trades; he admits it. There's been awful news with this as shares keep falling. At some point, he will sell and cut his losses.
Some investors feel that semis in the next two years are not going anywhere, so they avoid them. Others are bullish. If so, own AMD or Nvidia. He owns AMD for the valuation, $10 million share buyback and excellent management. He is bullish in semis, that will be tied to the overall economy's recovery.
Last Thursday was pivotal and the sell-off since then amounts to a profound lack of confidence in the US Fed who are behind the curve. Even a 100-basis point hike (the Fed meets tomorrow and Wednesday) won't do anything. Markets have no confidence as liquidity is being removed. Crypto excesses are being removed and real estate is next. Let this malaise unwind. Time is the only solution.
Bitcoin has plunged to $23,000. Blockchain technology will eventually work, but that doesn't mean Bitcoin will reach $100,000, though $40,000 is reasonble. The two don't correlate.
Has inflation peaked? The price of natural gas, oil, wheat, corn and other commodities is spiking. Nat gas is approaching $8. So, inflation isn't finished.
Is hitting new highs today after huge run in the last 12 months. The agriculture trade has strong momentum that will go parabolic. Corn and wheat from Ukraine are down substantially while weather is challenging plantings in the U.S. He bought this today, even at these highs. He doesn't see resolution in the supply side. Any correction is a buying opportunity. You must be in agriculture which is not expensive in terms of valuation.
Is hitting new highs today after huge run in the last 12 months. The agriculture trade has strong momentum that will go parabolic. Corn and wheat from Ukraine are down substantially while weather is challenging plantings in the U.S. He bought this today, even at these highs. He doesn't see resolution in the supply side. Any correction is a buying opportunity. You must be in agriculture which is not expensive in terms of valuation.
If Elon Musk wants to buy Twitter, he will, and he'll do it buy raising his price offer, like $60. Either way, part of the Twitter userbase will feel alienated, whether he buys it or not. Name a platform as politically divisive as Twitter. This has to be a private company in order to increase their free cash flow.