President at Newhaven Asset Management
Member since: Jan '13 · 1270 Opinions
The Trump tariffs are a wake-up call. The next government needs to consider how to protect ourselves from this situation without getting rid of the US, but having other options for our natural resources amid all sectors. Mexico and Europe (will) have the same problem.
He prefers the senior gold names. Now is similar to 2010-2012 when gold producers paid more dividends. Is watching which of the smaller companies will pay dividends, which he welcomes. However, AEM has stopped increasing its dividend and has been taken off the dividend aristocrat list.
Watch this because shares have fallen far and Brookfield is involved with them in a serious way. Watch their next two quarterly reports.
During the Trump tariff sell-off yesterday, TD may have been the best performer among the Big Five banks, partly because shares are down far already, but also because they are diversified outside Canada. The more Canadian-exposed banks got hit worse. Nobody knows the impact of tariffs, but TD is in a better position than peers.
Likes it short and long term. They touch 30% of all LNG and 25% natural gas in North America. There was data centre hype in this stock, but faded after DeepSeek last week. Pays a 5% dividend yield. Likes it more after spinning off South Bow, a pure play natural gas company.
REITs are very correlated to interest rate expectations. Last year, he took a close look at this and was not enthused. Immigration is gone, no longer a tailwind, and its dividend is merely okay. Long-term, office REITs have the best outlook in REITs.
He remains a big fan of the company. They've increased margins and revenues. The tariffs have impacted shares. He isn't panicking but rather buying on weakness, including yesterday. Volatility will continue. The US makes up 33% of sales, and because SIS has a lot of manufacturing in the US so those sales should conform with the tariffs. If FDA-approved products, like elevators are exempt, that would raise the US percentage. Ultimately, SIS will navigate tariffs which won't last forever.
Owns a serious position. Happy that shares have returned to all-time highs after capital projects are now online as they raised the dividend. The only potential impact of tariffs would be spot volumes on the mainline flowing into the US. Would be minor pain. And we don't know how long tariffs will last. Cooler heads will prevails, especially in energy which are so integrated between Canada and the US.
He held this a long time, patiently. Shares finally broke above $28 last year after a long repair period. There remains upside as it raises its dividend and has diversified sales in North America and Asia.
Among the best-managed in Canadian energy. Likes the balance of owning infrastructure, condensate production (prices could rise during tariffs) and LNG development on the west coast.
The bar wasn't high for them last year, but they still didn't exceed it. Wind performance remains an issue and the ambiguous management change caused unrest. Also, they had a problem with a sub-contractor in Taiwan where a death (not their fault) created bad press. They just hired a new CEO, who came from CNQ's board and Total, who will maintain the 7.3% dividend and will hit milestones in offshore wind (not exposed to the US, which is good). He likes the new CEO. They are in the building/development cycle, which they are good at. It's very positive. He would make this a top pick.
Share have gone done, but actually rose in the second half of 2024. The new CEO is unknown, so he's TBD with the market. But so far, there's better performance in key metrics. It takes time to turn around a large company, like 2, 4 or even 10 years. But there's little competition among Canadian banks and you collect a nice dividend as you wait. He's happy to stay the course.
Dividend investing is for 30, not 3 years, to survive ups and downs. AQN has been very difficult in the last 3-4 years. But new management has sold off their renewables business. Also, he's very positive with companies that have a lot of US business, like AQN. When a re-rate comes, things will start to move up all at once. He sees upside in AQN, though doesn't know where. His average cost base is $12, and he's been buying all along.
There's talk that the stock could break out of its current range, possibly. But he wonders about the direction of interest rates both here and abroad. Either hold if you already own, or buy on dips. Good job if you already own.
Short-term this is fine, and really likes it long term. Has infrastructure, but has spun it off, natural gas and condensate businesses. We'll see about gas prices. Tariffs could hold impact, but LNG Canada will be larger.