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Stock Opinions by Ryan Bushell

COMMENT
Market focus amid volatility. Concerned about the level of financial markets. We'll see the effects in food, energy, and parts of the supply chain. These elements will push up inflation, raising interest rates, and affecting essentials in consumer budgets. Something's gotta give, and it will probably be discretionary and tech subscription services. Pension fund rebalancing is also on his radar. Bond prices are down 10-15% YTD, equity markets are up, so this drains liquidity out of the equity markets. His firm is always cautious, so they're set up well for the coming environment.
Unknown
COMMENT
Where to put money in the near term? Invest in essentials -- things people need, not things they want. Wants in society are always changing, but the needs rarely do. In 2020, we had capital abundance, and the wants took over. Now, it's different and we're having food, energy, and housing inflation. He's invested heavily in energy and energy infrastructure and other businesses that meet people's needs.
Unknown
COMMENT
Are consumers too stretched to help bolster the economy? That's valid, especially in Canada. US consumer is in better shape. The good news is that wages are rising and the labour market remains strong, but employment is a lagging indicator so how long can this continue? Uptick in demand for durable goods during the pandemic appears to be waning. February US durable goods orders are down 2.2%, the first decrease in 5 months. Durables have a huge multiplier effect throughout the economy. He's concerned and watching closely how the numbers flow through to the economy and how the market digests that.
Unknown
WEAK BUY
Construction and industrials have had a tough share price environment. He owns ARE instead, for its more stable public sector exposure. Likes the space broadly. How can companies pass through inflation? Pandemic labour shortages are, hopefully, in the rearview mirror. See his Top Picks.
REAL ESTATE
BUY on WEAKNESS
RY vs. BNS Broadly, Canadian banks are all driven by the consumer and mortgage market. RY is the premier name in Canada, he owns it at full weight, no plans to sell, not buying for new clients until there's a pullback. Canadian franchise is solid, great capital markets business, good long-term. Forays into US appear solid. One of the lower dividend yields in the space. BNS has one of the highest yields, more focused in Latin America, recent Chilean acquisition still TBD. He owns a small position. His other preference is TD. He's not adding to any of the banks, waiting to see how market digests rate increases and hoping for a market pullback.
banks
BUY on WEAKNESS
BNS vs. RY Broadly, Canadian banks are all driven by the consumer and mortgage market. RY is the premier name in Canada, he owns it at full weight, no plans to sell, not buying for new clients until there's a pullback. Canadian franchise is solid, great capital markets business, good long-term. Forays into US appear solid. One of the lower dividend yields in the space. BNS has one of the highest yields, more focused in Latin America, recent Chilean acquisition still TBD. He owns a small position. His other preference is TD. He's not adding to any of the banks, waiting to see how market digests rate increases and hoping for a market pullback.
banks
BUY on WEAKNESS
Broadly, Canadian banks are all driven by the consumer and mortgage market. RY is the premier name in Canada, he owns it at full weight, no plans to sell, not buying for new clients until there's a pullback. Canadian franchise is solid, great capital markets business, good long-term. Forays into US appear solid. One of the lower dividend yields in the space. BNS has one of the highest yields, more focused in Latin America, recent Chilean acquisition still TBD. He owns a small position. His other preference is TD. He's not adding to any of the banks, waiting to see how market digests rate increases and hoping for a market pullback.
banks
WAIT
In transition from combustion to electric. Well positioned for EV. What will the consumer demand and be willing to pay for? So far, it's a high margin area, but there will be more competition. Industrials have been hit hard, and he can't get a handle on the auto cycle. Underlying fundamentals are good, dividend fine, well managed. Headwinds for consumer, so wait and buy on sale.
Automotive
HOLD
Lacklustre performance. More likely to be acquired because it's small. If you own it, he doesn't have a problem with it. There are names he likes better. See his Top Picks.
oil / gas
COMMENT
Investing in ESG. Less than 24 months ago, the oil patch was abandoned in favour of ESG. Now, it's a different story. It's not about what we say, but what we do, and we continue to consume fossil fuels, which are difficult to displace. He's comfortable in the energy and infrastructure space, along with gas and electric, making up the majority of his portfolio. He's also in renewables. Pre-pandemic demand is coming back, plus there's now a huge energy security issue with Russia. He's positive on the whole energy value chain.
Unknown
PARTIAL SELL
When something is in such short supply, the price can go a lot higher. He trimmed about 1/3 of his position, and he's holding the rest. Likes it long term. Dividend will be increased. The run north of $130 won't last forever, so he's watching closely.
agriculture
WATCH
Nice recovery from Covid. Massive increases in price of raw materials and labour. Will they be able to increase margins? Will consumer be forced to come down market and boost their business? Yields are very attractive. After the recent run, all stocks should pull back, so he's watching the space.
investment companies / funds
DON'T BUY
Did well in pandemic, but worries this may go into reverse. Likes management, dividend, online efforts, business itself. Likes fundamentals, but not the macro. Discretionary spending on durable goods is a lot of what they sell and may get squeezed.
specialty stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 23/21, Up 27%) Best positioned in getting fibre to the home. Investing vertically in the value chain with healthcare and tech. Likely will see another dividend growth plan. He wishes he owned more. Nice 4% yield.
telephone utilities
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 23/21, Up 131%) Still more upside in terms of share price appreciation and dividend growth. Incredibly well positioned for the long term. One of his biggest positions.
oil / gas
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