President at Newhaven Asset Management
Member since: Jan '13 · 1270 Opinions
During the Trump tariff sell-off yesterday, TD may have been the best performer among the Big Five banks, partly because shares are down far already, but also because they are diversified outside Canada. The more Canadian-exposed banks got hit worse. Nobody knows the impact of tariffs, but TD is in a better position than peers.
He remains a big fan of the company. They've increased margins and revenues. The tariffs have impacted shares. He isn't panicking but rather buying on weakness, including yesterday. Volatility will continue. The US makes up 33% of sales, and because SIS has a lot of manufacturing in the US so those sales should conform with the tariffs. If FDA-approved products, like elevators are exempt, that would raise the US percentage. Ultimately, SIS will navigate tariffs which won't last forever.
Owns a serious position. Happy that shares have returned to all-time highs after capital projects are now online as they raised the dividend. The only potential impact of tariffs would be spot volumes on the mainline flowing into the US. Would be minor pain. And we don't know how long tariffs will last. Cooler heads will prevails, especially in energy which are so integrated between Canada and the US.
The bar wasn't high for them last year, but they still didn't exceed it. Wind performance remains an issue and the ambiguous management change caused unrest. Also, they had a problem with a sub-contractor in Taiwan where a death (not their fault) created bad press. They just hired a new CEO, who came from CNQ's board and Total, who will maintain the 7.3% dividend and will hit milestones in offshore wind (not exposed to the US, which is good). He likes the new CEO. They are in the building/development cycle, which they are good at. It's very positive. He would make this a top pick.
Share have gone done, but actually rose in the second half of 2024. The new CEO is unknown, so he's TBD with the market. But so far, there's better performance in key metrics. It takes time to turn around a large company, like 2, 4 or even 10 years. But there's little competition among Canadian banks and you collect a nice dividend as you wait. He's happy to stay the course.
Dividend investing is for 30, not 3 years, to survive ups and downs. AQN has been very difficult in the last 3-4 years. But new management has sold off their renewables business. Also, he's very positive with companies that have a lot of US business, like AQN. When a re-rate comes, things will start to move up all at once. He sees upside in AQN, though doesn't know where. His average cost base is $12, and he's been buying all along.