Ryan Bushell
President at Newhaven Asset Management
Member since: Jan '13 · 1301 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
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Big Win
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Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | 117 20.28% | 141 24.44% | 85 14.73% | 148 25.65% | 86 14.90% | ||
| 1 Month | 3.96 | 5 3.68% | 43 31.62% | 48 35.29% | 38 27.94% | 2 1.47% | |
| 6 Months | 4.01 | 18 13.53% | 42 31.58% | 20 15.04% | 36 27.07% | 17 12.78% | |
| 12 Months | 2.77 | 32 25.20% | 23 18.11% | 8 6.30% | 38 29.92% | 26 20.47% | |
| 2 Years | 4.02 | 34 29.31% | 25 21.55% | 6 5.17% | 23 19.83% | 28 24.14% | |
| 5 Years | 3.76 | 28 43.08% | 8 12.31% | 3 4.62% | 13 20.00% | 13 20.00% |
Stock Opinions by Ryan Bushell
In all his conversations with professionals and savvy people, not a single person says "Yup, this is how it should be." Most people think there's a disconnect.
Longer term, if you look at the interest rate policy we've pursued since the financial crisis of 2008, it has destabilized the bond market to the benefit of the equity markets. So equities and valuations have benefited. At the same time, we have an ongoing new paradigm as it relates to AI. And that's feeding off of itself too.
So it's a number of things happening all at once. At his firm, they just look through all of that and assess where we are today in relation to a long period of history, and where are we going in the future? They still like the stable fundamentals of the companies they own.
The theme that will most likely come through in today's show is "For new money, wait for a better entry point."
What's interesting about the negative reactions in April, and earlier this year when the tariff news first hit, is that it wasn't the general economy stocks that were impacted. It was the tech stocks. So he hesitates to say where the market's going to go based on the general economy.
He's not too concerned with trying to figure out where we are in the cycle. It's really driven by policy. Right now, policy is saying we're going to cut rates. The US President is saying we're going to cut rates. So the market has given an almost-Pavlovian response by pushing up valuations.
On the overall economy, real-time data doesn't look very good. Port landings, freight traffic, trucking company and courier results all show problems. Consumers aren't necessarily getting stuck with tariffs. It's the retailers, importers, and manufacturers that are swallowing the extra costs for now. Once those start to get passed through, it will start to hurt the consumer.
Consumer discretionary is the worst-performing sector in the S&P this year, and that shows you where the limited impact is. But the market as a whole has been able to power through that.
Fall is the weaker period for equities, so he's hoping to see some opportunities. But he's not super-optimistic.
Two stories here. Long term, the Canadian financial sector has been so consolidated for so long that it's left some openings in terms of digital offerings. We're quite behind the US in this.
Short-medium term, how is the Canadian credit situation? Haven't seen the credit story deteriorate yet. But need to keep an eye as mortgage renewals come through and tariffs dampen NA consumers' spending. A better entry point will likely show up.
His firm is very conservative, prefers to have exposure through larger, better-capitalized dividend payers. But companies like this one do take market share, so it's something he'd probably look at in future as it becomes more established.
Long-term story for Western Canada is positive. Finally have infrastructure being built. Government and population seem to be more behind the sector. Short-term outlook is pretty cloudy, especially for oil and particularly as we head into the slower demand period of fall.
Will take a while to digest VRN merger. Weakness for next 3-9 months. Over time, you'll do fine. Can hold for the dividend. For new $$, wait for a better entry point.
See his Top Picks.
Surprised by underperformance. If he could pick it as a Top Pick again today, he would. Re-contracting of tolls on Alliance Pipeline bought from ENB was worse than expected. Really well positioned for increase in nat gas production in Western Canada. Continues to buy.
Waste sector has had a tremendous run over past decade. Lots of economic uncertainty (though no massive recession), which has driven investors to "bulletproof" names. Multiple for the sector has exhausted itself. He'd like to own a business like this, but would require a large, macro-based pullback.
Let your winners run, but if it's become overweight in your portfolio, may want to trim. Portfolio rebalancing is healthy.
Good place to get some income. Nice spectrum of companies with higher yields, lower yields, higher growth, and less growth. He wants to have a mixture, but also a core position. He's tilted more towards natural gas than oil, because fundamentals for nat gas in Canada look pretty good relative to the oil fundamentals (sideways market barring some sort of crisis).
Still thinks both the Canadian natural gas and oil stories are positive. CAD below 70 cents makes us more competitive as well. US shale production may or may not last at current levels -- both in terms of capital required and lifespan of reservoirs.
Don't divest. Instead, hunker down in a few core names. See his Top Picks.
Impressive management. The entire space is subject to the unpredictability of catastrophic losses. But this company has done great, able to manage all the risks. Post-pandemic inflationary environment helped (replacement costs went up, so premiums did too).
Recent results were fine, but stock dropped. Could have just exhausted itself for now. May have to grow into the multiple. Or, if there's a market pullback and people are really scared, they might sell their winners because that's all they can sell with liquidity. In which case, some of the higher-valued stocks might be in for more of a drop. Or if the fear is just temporary, other stocks may be trimmed and the leaders continue to hold up well. We'll have to see.
Given the quality of the business, he'd certainly look at it on a material pullback. If you hold it now, don't let the current weakness shake you out. Likely to close the gap up, unless something dramatic happens in the macro or micro story.
