Ryan Bushell

It feels very 2007-y to him. Stories you're starting to hear out of the private market space, this fund's having trouble, this fund's gating redemptions. He'd have said that a week ago, even before this giant rally back to all-time highs (one of the fastest in history).

To him, it still feels pretty fragile. When you look at commodity markets and supply chains with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, that stress is only beginning to show up and will only get worse almost exponentially as the weeks wear on.

He agrees. We've had a lot of bureaucratic boy-who-cried-wolf scenarios since the financial crisis. Even the pandemic was a predicted abyss, but then we sailed through that on a buy-the-dip mentality.

But for his team, where the rubber meets the road is in the physical world. The digital world can run on its narratives, but the physical world runs on real commodities and that's where things are getting constrained. You just can't take 10% of oil demand out of the global market for months on end and not have some impact.

So far we've been able to get through it with some strategic reserve releases and such. It's shoulder season, so the gas supply side isn't showing up yet. But we're heading into a high demand period for oil, and high demand for gas for cooling. There are going to be shortages, and we're going to start to see some pain.

He is, perhaps, hopeful. At this point it's a show-me story for him as an investor. At least the talk is not as antagonistic as it was before. We actually need to see some action.

However, the stability is good. Canada is looking very attractive on a global stage. Big problems in Europe, political polarization in the US where we'll have to see what happens with the midterms.

In Canada we're all starting to come around to having the political will to get some things done on the energy supply side, especially as it relates to LNG. That could be very positive for Canada over the next decade+. We're looking like a more stable place to put capital than a lot of other places.

Suspects there will be volatility. We're seeing it in the oil price depending on which tweet comes out. The floor for oil prices is higher on the back of the conflict, perhaps around $80 -- geopolitical premium, reservoir damage, production lost, need to refill inventory.

This company has torque to that. If you want to play that game in the short-term, this is a decent vehicle for that. Company's stronger from its reorganization.

Cut dividend, big corporate changes. His team is watching it. Pretty washed out at $10, with a lot of great assets. Hard for the economy to keep forging ahead with all the problems going on. 

Looking pretty positive for a long-term idea, chart's coming up off the bottom. Yield is 6.4%.

He's also struggling to put cash to work for new clients. Existing clients have seen a tremendous runup as the Canadian market has reverted to the mean. Some of the energy infrastructure names are now seeing all-time highs, when the last ones were 10 years ago. Thinks there's more to go there.

Still likes energy infrastructure -- ENB, PPL, ALA. Based on what's happened in Iran, especially as it relates to natural gas, more infrastructure will need to be built. Need more secure points of supply around the globe.

Another sector is telecom. Washed out, nobody likes it. But its assets are 100-year assets. Think of a pipeline -- put the capital in the ground to build the pipe, and then harvest the cashflow as product flows through. No different for the telecom companies. An essential service for every person and business in the country, and they're the only companies that own that infrastructure.

There's talk of Telus cutting its dividend. Even if it was cut in half, both BCE and T would yield around 5%. His firm is confidently putting $$ to work in this sector at these levels. The space will look better a decade from now.

Lots of opportunity in the sector, but he's stayed away for 2 reasons. His clients already own real estate, and it's usually the biggest part of their net worth picture. Valuations were high (but now starting to get more interesting). He's waiting.

If you own this one, dividend is well covered and company is a going concern.

It used to be all about SLF, the shining star. MFC was in the doldrums following the financial crisis. Recently, MFC has taken the lead. SLF has had issues with asset management. Chart shows it's not doing badly.

If you own it, don't be afraid of it. He needs either a macro or company-specific hiccup to happen before putting new $$ to work in the market. Watch out for headline contagion risk from private credit issues.

Owned in the past. Now MFC is his only insurance position.

In the doldrums following the financial crisis. Recently, taken the lead. The opportunity in this name has, perhaps, been fully realized.

He needs either a macro or company-specific hiccup to happen before putting new $$ to work in the market. At that time, you may want to take profits on this and deploy elsewhere. Watch out for headline contagion risk from private credit issues.

Sold most of its renewables business. Coming out of some very dark years. Continues to put $$ in. Attractive looking out 5 years as new management regains footing and builds confidence with investors. Will grind higher. Yield is ~5%.

Such a big run, now a huge amount's come off. Looks attractive. Pace of change in the AI space makes things uncertain. Hard to determine pricing power of a tool. The market's not stupid, there are serious concerns.

One thesis says to look through that and say the moat will be fine. For him, it's too risky.

Likes the recent deal, while US brokerages hated it. SES is a pretty good company, and didn't pay a lot for it. 

Type of business he'd like to own at the right price. He'd like to see a higher dividend yield. Pretty well run. Drop in the stock argues for potential upside.

Seems to trade off on private equity concerns, though there's no direct exposure. Continues to put $$ in at these levels. Oil and nat gas egress stories are still intact.

Engineering issues, and market's moved away. His firm is willing to look through those and buy at these levels. Longer term, uniquely positioned on natural gas and condensate. 

Using FCF to buy back shares, which is smart given where the share price is. Yield is ~3%, with visibility to growing it.

If you still like the company, rough times are a chance to accumulate shares. 

Long list of problems; hopefully now solutions being implemented. Some competitors have folded up their tents, so competition is less but pricing power is higher. Full order backlog. Supply chain is under control. Hope for dividend to be reinstated in a couple of years.