AppLovin Corporation (APP)

Is up 11% today on an upgrade. It's an example of nothing news-driven to act as a catalyst in the software space, just an upgrade.

Is -41% in Q1 and one of the worst performers on the S&P. Has impressive growth and profits, but shares started the year selling at 45x PE, expensive, and investors fear that AI will displace them. 

Great fundamentals, but the stock has been beaten up.

Their extreme valuation has compressed so much. Will see strength in ads, gaming and e-commerce. The street's earnings estimate is very high, so Cadence has to beat that. Can free cash flow come in above $3 billion? Are in an uncertain environment. That need a super report to restore bullish sentiment.

A darling last year, but no more, because Google is now competing with them.  It reports on Wednesday. 

Down 30% last month. Was hammered last Friday when Google announced a competing app. The sell-off was overdone. It was trading at 42x PE and now at 32x. Don't compete against Google.

It has great momentum, but trades at one of the highest PEs in the market.

Up 108% last year, though weakened in recent months. Trades at 43x PE. Has great growth and is very profitable. They have no competitors. Revenue tripled over the last 4 years while revenue climbed from nothing to $9.37 EPS. Growth will continue, maybe accelerate at 37% revenue growth and 56% earnings growth.

The stock is down 4% today.  There was a lawsuit filed relating to the big decline earlier this year, but we would not consider this to be of any significance.  The stock has had a huge run, up 133% in six months.  We would view the dip as a correction.  Risks and volatility exists here, but we would be willing to buy today.  
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Rallied 105% in Q3 alone, but is relatively unknown. Short seller have been hammered. Is bullish. One of the best performers of Q3.

12-month price target of $620. Analysts are having a hard time keeping up with price targets, because everything is dramatically changing with AI every day -- new relationships, new innovations. This one is about global advertising app monetization. $190B market cap right now.

Index inclusion is quite positive in the short term, but the impact tends to fade over time. Still, the likely benefit is credibility for APP, especially after this year's intense short seller attacks. Index buying will now be ongoing, and non-index managers will still have to watch it more closely as if it moves they will potentially lag index moves (if they do not own it). Liquidity will increase and volatility 'potentially' could decrease. There is still a big debate on the stock as to whether it is the next-big-thing or a smoke-and-mirrors show. The numbers are excellent, no doubt, and if they can be sustained we think the stock does very well.
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Volatile, but enjoys amazing growth with EPS jumping from under $1 in 2023 to $4.50 in 2025 and $9 expected this year. PE is expected at 41x in 2026, but given growth this could be cheap.