LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) (LVMUY)

There was a luxury boom during Covid when people had a lot of savings and people couldn't spend in places like restaurants. Then there came a hangover post-Covid. Meanwhile, China shifted spending from luxury to gold and precious metals. Now, the US-Iran war is having an impact. Luxury is a buy now and LVMH is a mature company, so is growing at a slower rate. The valuation is interesting.

He's still a buyer today. De-rated quite a bit. Less discretionary $$ to go around these days. A buying opportunity, average in over time. Its brands are everlasting and iconic, with pricing power over time.

(Note the shortish timeframe.)  Still likes it at these levels. Headwinds from trade pressure and from tariffs in US and China. World's been slow to move back to luxury. Attractive valuation of 21x PE for 2026. Expects earnings to get back to double digits in next 12-18 months. 

Is founder-run/owned, has no debt and has a great history of increasing shareholder value. Vuitton comprises about half their business. Women own multiple handbags, which leads to recurring revenue. Also, they own make up through Sephora, champagne and other businesses.

Chinese economy hasn't bounced back after Covid as quickly as expected. Stock price has moved somewhat higher on better performance in its fashion segment. Moved above 200-day MA, yet that moving average is still trending lower or flat. Wait to buy or to add.

Slowdown in Chinese consumer, who's a lot more focused on buying gold right now. Luxury market going through a bit of turbulence as consumers pursue alternate ways to show off wealth. He's been buying through this weakness. Still interesting as a long-term hold.

Tough and challenging for many luxury names since pandemic. Hasn't been the recovery in Asia and China that was expected. Long term makes a lot of sense, but put on the back burner for now.

European companies sold off with the tariff threats. Growth by acquisition, and they have the cash to do that. Luxury is a growth category, and while it may be slowing it's outperforming many other segments. Attractively priced. Luxury category holds up very well during recessions. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.33%.

A bit of a stinker :(  He's averaged down along the way. Chinese demand, as well as that in other geographies, has pulled in. Recently, some data points are getting better.

Sold a while ago, mainly because rebound in Chinese market wasn't there after Covid. The slightly lower-tier names, such as TPR, have done better. The macro environment explains the difference -- consumers are being very choosy as to what they own. Given that we're probably mid-cycle at this point, not an area he's attracted to (unless the valuations got so cheap you'd need to take a look).

Luxury space has been suffering. Consumer sentiment worldwide has been crushed by Trump and by Ukraine war, but it will come back. Louis Vuitton is going to be here for the long term. Thinks it's at the bottom, he's been accumulating.

It's a sentiment stock. So once sentiment turns, the stock will pop.

Behemoth and benchmark in luxury goods. Stock's been weak as consumers have pulled back globally, especially in China and US. Historically over all these cycles, their brands have performed very well. ROIC is very high, and can be sustained even through weak times. Very cheap at 17x PE. Growth is probably 0% this year, but once tariffs come through it will be bullish for the global luxury market. 

With so many brands under one banner, very flexible in terms of allocating capital and marketing support to one brand or another. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.6%.

Their brand, Sephora, needs to lower prices in this economy, but they won't, and so will lose. Premiums are over in the U.S. and no longer work.

Spectacular company. Luxury brands had already taken a hit because of China. He's holding off. If we do get a recession, this will get really cheap and we've seen that before. This name is quite cyclical, but best in class.

Luxury goods face a global recession, but LVMH shares are attractive. If they go lower, he will add shares.