Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
FMC, $4B market cap, down 47% in the past year, is very cheap at 9X earnings, with a 7.2% dividend. But debt is extremely high (more than 10X recent 12-month cash flow) and earnings have stalled. 2026E EPS is expected to be less than it was seven years ago. The Q2 was decent, but free cash flow has been running negative on a 12-month basis. It did affirm guidance, but this is really a debt issue. If the global economy slows, their business is not likely to see big growth, but of course the debt will still be there. Going into year end tax selling we would sit this one out. We have no idea how Morningstar sees it tripling. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
This global producer of agricultural herbicides and insecticides, recently reported a 49% increase in free cash flow. North American sales are up 24% over the year and management expects a 15% increase in earnings over the second half of 2024. It trades at 19x earnings, under 2x book and supports a 36% ROE. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $52, looking to achieve $72 -- upside potential of 17%. Yield 3.7%
An S&P loser in 2023, down 51%. Grain prices slid as Ukraine couldn't be the bread basket given Russia's war. FMC is a great company, but agriculture failed last year. Ag could bounce back, but if it does he prefers Deere.
Chemicals and so on. Diversified, lower risk company. Could hit $100 in 12 months. If it goes below $75, exit. Looks good based on volume patterns. Yield is 1.93%. (Analysts’ price target is $90.89)
Reflationary assets are benefitting and basic materials are part of this group. The chart looks like it is consolidating and he thinks there is another lift coming soon.
Big chemical company. He likes their exposure to lithium and they are one of the largest suppliers globally. If the US has their way, cars will be electric, which have batteries that will be supplied with lithium. Longer term play. He is looking for an entry place at around $50/$51.
Chemical company with 3 distinct divisions. The agricultural business and industrial side are doing quite well. Their specialty chemical division has been a challenge. Looking at pretty good earnings growth going forward.
FMC, $4B market cap, down 47% in the past year, is very cheap at 9X earnings, with a 7.2% dividend. But debt is extremely high (more than 10X recent 12-month cash flow) and earnings have stalled. 2026E EPS is expected to be less than it was seven years ago. The Q2 was decent, but free cash flow has been running negative on a 12-month basis. It did affirm guidance, but this is really a debt issue. If the global economy slows, their business is not likely to see big growth, but of course the debt will still be there. Going into year end tax selling we would sit this one out. We have no idea how Morningstar sees it tripling.
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