Stockchase Insights

It is mainly (probably) Trump related. His 'Department Of Government Efficiency' is deisgned to cut costs and unnecessary spending in the government. This includes military spending and the money allocated towards contractors such as LHX. Whether this will actually a meaningful is unclear. We think LHX looks good however, and analysts have been bullish on margin expansion in future years.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

PBH has been on an investment cycle to expand production capacity in recent years, which has ramped up its capital investments meaningfully. That being said, the company has shown some early signs of a complete investment cycle and could be poised to reaccelerate growth in the near term. We think investors need some patience with PBH. A few catalysts that could make PBH interesting again include:

-Capital expenditures come down

-Organic growth accelerates

-Free cash flow recovers

We think a combination of these factors could lead to a significant multiple re-rate in share price. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

We do not really have a specific reason here. It has had no company news in more than a month. Investors may be shifting to other hotter sectors. Trump has made comments about capping interest rates. The last quarter was not a blow-out. It's been more than a year since the last dividend hike. There is a CEO transition. At less than 10X earnings, we are not particularly concerned here. The company has adapted and thrived in all sorts of challenges and economic backdrops. We think 'now' is attractive, and at $150 (close to its prior low) very attractive. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Canadian Companies & Equity Capital: Struggling companies investors should stay away from

Negative book value could be a concern for companies if they are unprofitable, cyclical, possessing minimum pricing power and highly capital-intensive. The situation could get worse if these businesses produced losses and secular headwinds in the business model. Consequently, negative equity capital is just a result of the cumulative losses over the years. These companies are the ones investors should stay away from at all costs, no matter how cheaply they trade.

Overall, accounting figures may confuse investors. At the end of the day, what matters to investors is the underlying fundamentals of the business, which would dictate investment results over time. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

In its annual report, GIB.A disclosed the degree of client concentration, the company’s revenue with the U.S. federal government consisting of various agencies accounted for around 13.5% of GIB.A’s total revenue in FY2023.

The U.S. government is one of the largest customers of GIB.A. That being said, so far, DOGE is mostly just noise. Of course, there is always a risk when doing business with the government especially when companies raise prices with the government too much. We don’t think GIB.A is the target of that program, there are lots of other niches that demonstrate price-gouging behaviour rather than IT services.

Even in the worst-case scenario, if GIB.A is limited in terms of raising its capabilities with the government; we think the company can still do just fine if the other 87% of its revenue sources keep doing well.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

SYF is a consumer finance company; the company was spun out of GE back in 2015. SYF has maintained an attractive Return on Equity (ROE) profile along with consistent share buybacks over the years. SYF is trading at 1.8x Forward P/E, an expansion compared to previous years of around 1.2x, given the recent improving operating results.

We think SYF still looks quite cheap, but the business is mature, and growth is quite limited, investors need an appropriate expectation for SYF that although it may not be a compounder, SYF can potentially do comfortably well around 10%-12% over the long term (price appreciation and dividends) for investors. Portfolio allocation is a personal decision, we tend not to recommend a precise allocation, depending on investors’ risk tolerance.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

We feel the outlook for natural gas in the coming year is met with moderate growth, and potential lots of volatility. Underlying global natural gas demand should increase, and the completion of Canada's LNG pipeline to the Pacific could improve ARX's profitability. Its recent momentum has been positive, and it offers a decent yield (2.7%) with a solid valuation of 10.5X forward earnings. Growth is expected to be decent in the coming years, and its profit margins are healthy. We think it looks OK here, although, it is expected to be volatile and it needs to resume its topline growth. For an investor that is bullish on the outlook for natural gas, we would be OK accumulating here.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Market Update:

The TSE Index was up 6.16% in the month of November, up 23.93% YTD and 26.73% over the past year. Canadian GDP was up 0.30% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2.00% for the full year; in the USA the GDP was up 2.80% in the fourth quarter and 2.70% for the full year. The Canadian inflation rate was up 2% annually and the US inflation rate was up 2.60% annually in November 2024. With this background, the following Table presents the highest and lowest performers for the month of November 2024.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

With the stock up 146% this year, some consolidation was needed and is probably healthy. We are seeing some big hits in many stocks today, with most having no news. Fundamentals are strong and estimates have ticked up in the past four weeks. The company has only really started to penetrate international markets, and likely has many years of growth ahead of it. It is not cheap, though, and investors are paying up for its market share and reliability. We would be very comfortable holding a position and buying into any futher weakness. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

NEO is well-positioned as a global supplier of advanced industrial materials, and its strategic partnerships outside of China (Brazil, etc.) allow it to mitigate supply chain disruptions caused by China's restrictions. The restrictions from China could cause rare earth prices to rise, benefiting NEO, and non-Chinese suppliers such as NEO can benefit from increased demand from countries and companies looking to diversify away from China. The uncertainty coming out of China is certainly not welcome for rare earth mineral investors over the near-term, but we think the company can see some positive impacts over the long-term as a result of this decision. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

GLXY initially went public via a reverse takeover of a Canadian shell company in 2018, which automatically made GLXY a Canadian-listed entity. It is a Canadian-domiciled company for regulatory purposes, meaning its parent company is incorporated in Canada, but its operational headquarters are in New York. Similarly, SHOP is headquartered in Canada, but also trades on the US stock exchange. 

GLXY has had a substantial run up in price, and we think there may be an opportunity in the low $20s at some point, but this could require a lot of investor patience. Near-term, we think the high $20s can represent a good entry point, while acknowledging that it is highly volatile and could see big drawdowns at any time. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Company Highlight: VersaBank (VBNK)

VersaBank (VBNK) is a Canadian-based, digital-only bank focused on specialized lending and deposit services. Established as one of the first fully digital banks in Canada, it operates without physical branches, leveraging technology to keep overhead costs low and streamline services for niche markets, including point-of-sale (POS) financing and commercial real estate lending. It mostly operates in Canada, but has recently expanded some services into the US. 

Its stock price has recently seen strong momentum, up 58% year-to-date, and 125% on a one-year basis. It pays a small yield (0.4%), but both sales and earnings growth are expected to be strong in FY2025 and FY2026. Its historical growth rates have been robust, with a five-year sales and earnings CAGR of 16% and 19%, respectively. Net profit margins are expanding and with a market cap of $595.7 million and a reasonable valuation of 11.4X forward earnings, we think VBNK looks interesting here. 

We can see that its net profits have really taken off over the past couple of years, and its outlook is increasingly positive. It has ongoing plans to expand its POS financing offerings in North America, and its cybersecurity segment, DRT cyber, is also expected to see growth in the coming years. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

In recent years, DHR has been in the process of transforming itself from an industrial conglomerate into a pure life science and biotech player with a high degree of recurring revenues by divesting legacy industry assets. The company now possesses a solid profile of highly recurring revenue and strong margins, basically a “software-like” business model.

However, weak organic growth has caused the company’s shares to trade largely sideways in recent years. DHR also repurchased shares aggressively in the recent quarter, which the company did not implement for a long time, indicating that management believes shares are undervalued. That being said, DHR is trading at 28.4x Forward P/E with low single-digit revenue growth, which is certainly not that attractive. However, this is not the company’s issue but rather an industry-wide challenge, as similar headwinds also exist with other players like TMO.

Consensus estimates expect DHR to grow its topline by 7% on average over the next few years. We think now could be a good time to average into the position, but maybe not be too aggressively. We would be comfortable starting a position but only adding more when revenue returns to a solid growth trajectory.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

We think TW looks like a strong investment. The stock is up 50% year-to-date and has seen trading volumes steadily rise this year. Fundamentals are very attractive where it is a high margin business that has demonstrated top line growth of nearly 30% over the last-twelve-months. It generates high cash flows and has a strong balance sheet with $1.1B in net cash. The company has previously been acquisitive, and with all the cash they have, this could be a future catalyst. Granted it is expensive at 42x forward earnings but we think it is a strong name backed by fundamentals with potential to do well in the long-term. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

EPS of $12.18 beat estimates of $2.4 and sales of $66.9M missed estimates of $69.27M. It raised its dividend by 45% to $0.04 per share, and net operating income rose 24% in the quarter. Rental revenue from operations rose 20%, and the vacancy rate fell to 3.4% from 4.3% last year. While the results were strong, and growth remains at high levels, there was an analyst downgrade due to its lofty valuations (24X forward earnings). Its valuation has mostly remained flat over the past couple of years, but the company has executed well on growth and profitability. Given its continued execution, we would be comfortable with an entry point around $195 to $200. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free