Stockchase Insights

BSX has seen solid momentum recently due to an acceleration in revenue along with a decent track record of acquisitive growth. BSX is trading at 37x Forward P/E and growth is expected to be around 9% in the next few years. That being said, valuation is not cheap. We feel it is a decent name to own over the long term, but we would not be adding aggressively at the current valuation. we are comfortable averaging into BSX over time given the premium valuation it is trading at.
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The main issue was uncertainty: the auditor situation, the Nasdaq listing, and so on. Some of this has been cleared up, and the company has vowed that it will meet the listing requirements by the deadline. The outlook this week was pretty solid. The worst is likely over here. When it cannot get worse, stocks typically go up, and we think that's occurring now, with long buyers and short sellers covering, pushing up the price. There are still risks about how long the data centre cycle will last, and the company will alway likely be 'tainted' after having two accounting scares in less than six years. But it is very cheap, and any positive developments will likely see an amplified up move. We would rate it a HOLD but is more buyable for the more aggressive types than it has been in some time. The listing is still a big risk, but this will be resolved one way or the other soon. We still do not have enough 'trust' in the company for a strong endorsement, and if we miss it we can live with that. 
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Gold is taking a big hit today, with spot gold down $36/oz. AEM Q4 EPS of $1.26 beat estimates of $1.16; revenue of $2.22B marginally missed estimates. EBITDA of $1.33B matched estimates. Margins were a record on good cost control. 847,000 ounces were produced in Q4 with all-in costs at $1,316. Mines performed well. Production guidance was steady, but this is likely the company being conservative. Net debt is now very low and the company is in excellent financial shape going forward. Shares slipped a bit but are up 127% in a year and we would be comfortable with the quarter and outlook.
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Threat of Tariffs:

The past month, as the U.S. has been threatening and imposing tariffs on countries including Canada, we have been inundated with questions from our customers about tariffs and trade wars. Investors are wondering if they should sell their Canadian stocks. At the same time they worry about U.S. protectionist policies on U.S. assets, even going so far as to wonder if U.S. securities held by Canadians could be seized if things go the wrong way and the U.S. wants to exert more trade pressure on Canada. So, if selling Canada and avoiding the U.S., where should investors go?

First, as usual, our best advice is not to panic. This is not the first trade war. Stocks globally have survived dozens of such events. In addition, Canadian stock markets have had multiple months now to factor in worries, and stock valuations have adjusted somewhat. We certainly would not advise wholesale restructuring of portfolios on the possibility that something might happen. U.S. tariffs on Canada have already been delayed. They could be delayed further or reduced, or they may not happen at all. It is a moving target, certainly.
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The quarter and outlook were very solid, and this is the second very strong Q in a row, and the stock has regained lots of momentum. EPS could be 70% next year, after a shift from a loss to a profit this year. The 23% short position will likely continue to cover. We think investors can hold this now.
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EPS of $4.93 beat estimates of $4.18 and revenues of $5.76B missed estiamtes of $5.93B. Its combined ratio was solid at 86.5%, mostly due to solid underlying results across all lines of business. Its ROE was 16.5%, and it incurred $1.5B in catastrophe losses from several natural disasters over the past year. There were no mentions of the LA wildfires in its earnings. As a shareholder, we would be very pleased with these results and the market seems to like the results. It trades at 17.5X forward earnings, on the higher end of its historical average, but the company continues to execute and both margins and free cash flow are great. We would be comfortable slowly averaging in here for a long-term hold.
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EPS was 99c, ahead of estimates of 82c; revenue of $2.35B beat estimates of $2.16B. For 2025, forecast is for $9.13B in sales, vs estimates $9.12B. EPS $3.50 to $3.60, vs estimates $3.54. Q1 forecast was mostly in line with estimates. Results are generally good, and the company might be being conservative with its forecast. Investors were looking for more. But good growth is still very much expected, and we would be OK buying a bit into the dip, with the stock at 32X earnings now. 
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Types of Pensions: Defined Benefit Versus Defined Contribution

To start, if you are the owner of a pension asset, particularly a defined income stream, consider yourself lucky! A pension is one of your greatest financial assets.

There are two types of company pension plans: Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC). While not the focus of this article, we will provide a quick note on the key differences in order to better understand the context of the remaining article.

A DB pension means you receive a specific, known and periodic payout that is guaranteed by your employer regardless of how the pension investment performs. Your defined benefit amount depends on how much is paid into the plan and your years of service with that employer. The employer bears the investment risk and any ‘underfunded’ status.

A DC pension is entirely dependent on investment performance. The employee typically directs the asset allocation via investment fund choices. There are no guarantees about what your payout will be when you either retire or leave that employer.
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VIU would be our best choice here. Low fees, unhedged, ex-North America and OK returns, considering international markets have lagged for a long time. 
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There has been no signficant recent company news, good or bad. It recently did get some upgrades, with TD noting 'strong contributions from the Chinese market, and no negative operational news'. The decline could be general small cap aversion or tariff fears, as we cannot point to anything specific here. The last quarter was mixed, but estimates have slowly ticked up over the last month. We would consider it OK, with high debt the main drawback for us. 
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At 13X earnings, considering earnings, capital markets outlook and interest rate forecasts, we think it still looks good.
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Investing Theme to Watch: Urbanization and Digital Infrastructure

People continue to leave their rural lives behind and flock to cities in nearly every country on the planet. This means better jobs, more excitement and more service for them. Thus, this trend is likely going to continue for decades.

Investment opportunities abound from this shift. Companies can establish the necessary infrastructure to cater to both people’s move to cities and their rapidly growing and changing digital needs. As the citizens of developing countries become wealthier, they are going to want to buy cars, smartphones, digital TVs and everything else that can make their lives better and easier.

New technologies are bound to emerge and the companies that can capture market share of this new trend could do very well.

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F has seen negative momentum over the past few years, falling from a high of $25 in early 2022 to $9 today. It pays a good yield of 8.4%, but this is mostly high due to its falling stock price. Sales are expected to be mostly flat over the next few years, and earnings are expected to fall in the near term, with some growth thereafter. The auto industry was at one time a rising and popular theme, but we have since likely reached peak auto, and the forward growth is not as attractive as it once was. It is cheap (6X forward earnings), but so far it has proven to be a value trap. We would look for opportunities elsewhere in the industrials segment.
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EPS of 63c beat estimates of 53c. Revenue of $1.42B beat estimates of $1.38B. EBITDA of $881M beat estimates by 13%. Profit fell 27% despite higher production, due to lower prices. Production rose 4.7% year-over-year. Production matched estimates. EPS does call for lower income in 2025 but we think this is well-reflected in its low valuation. Overall, we are comfortable. 
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EPS of 74c missed estimates of 77c. Revenue of $355M beat estimates of $331M. EBITDA of $68M missed estimates by 7%. E.L.F. Beauty's slightly reduced sales outlook for fiscal 2025 reflects softer-than-expected January demand, demonstrating that the cosmetics and skin-care maker isn't immune to broader trends. The midpoint of guidance is still 5% above initial projections, as sales proved better than anticipated through 3Q, despite tough comparisons. The revised projection of $1.30-$1.31 billion in annual sales suggests a deceleration in growth to 27-28% for 2025, a three-year low. Slowing could extend into 2026 as consumers remain selective and beauty demand has yet to rebound, though store and shelf-expansion may provide an offset. Ebitda margin appears poised to be flat to slightly lower vs. fiscal 2024. Increased tariffs on imports from China could add pressure in 2026. The key word here is 'deceleration'. That, combined 26X earnings valuation and with negative stock momentum, compels us to sit this one out for a while. 
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