Billy 5i Research Coverage at 5i Research
Member since: Aug '20 · 2910 Opinions
The valuation looks fine here and the company is going from no revenues to high revenues this coming year. There are some execution risks because of this but things appear to largely be on track. Add in a strong backdrop for metals and we think ARTG looks interesting.
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We continue to like the name but given the run it has had, some volatility should be expected. They have significant growth ahead, are signing contracts and most of the backdrop in the sector seems to indicate that demand remains strong for the foreseeable future.
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Investing 101: Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs):
Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs) are a relatively new concept that has been introduced in recent years to help Canadians gain access to U.S. blue-chip stocks in a simplified, low-cost manner.
Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs) are securities that trade on the NEO Exchange in Canada, and the concepts are essentially similar to American Depository Receipts (ADRs) that are listed on American exchanges. CDRs give Canadians access to some of the largest US companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ through a Canadian exchange in Canadian dollars. CDRs are issued and managed by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC). There are no management fees, so the main cost that investors will incur is the buy/sell commission on trades.
PROS:
Accessibility in registered accounts: CDRs can be held within registered accounts, similar to other Canadian-listed securities. We think CDRs can fit in any account, but generally, growth investments are usually better in a TFSA.
Currency-hedge feature: There is a currency-hedge built into the shares. That said, the built-in currency hedge has a certain cost and may not perfectly track changes in track exchange rate. There are no management fees associated with CDRs, but CIBC does make money on the currency hedge. While investors do not see this as a charge, it does impact net asset value. This cost is estimated to be about 0.50% annually.
The benefit of currency hedging could be explained through this example. For instance, if the Canadian dollar strengthens relative to the US dollar, then that investment will lag behind the equivalent US stock, and vice versa, if the US dollar appreciates, the CDR will appreciate more than the US equivalent. As investors might expect, this is simply a currency call.
Fractional ownership: One of the key advantages of CDRs is a lower share price. CDRs are structured so that the price per share always starts at $20, giving a wider array of investors access to these global companies. In simple terms, CDRs represent fractional interest in the underlying US shares.
CONS:
Illiquidity: The primary disadvantage of owning CDRs is their lower liquidity than the US shares. Consequently, a wider bid-ask spread could result in a higher cost when buying/selling for investors.
Withholding taxes still apply: Despite trading on Canadian exchanges, the underlying assets are still U.S. shares, which are subject to withholding taxes for dividends received (except in an RRSP account).
Limited selection: Since the product is still new, only a handful of well-known U.S. mega-cap stocks are currently available. Most small- and mid-cap U.S. companies are not yet offered as CDRs.
Conclusion
Overall, we are comfortable with CDRs for investors who want lower-priced exposure to U.S. securities with a built-in Canadian hedge. They are not fundamentally different from owning the underlying shares, aside from their price, the currency hedge, and where they trade. The underlying U.S. shares are held by CIBC, which issues the CDRs.
We generally prefer non-hedged products and would favour owning the U.S. shares directly if investors have the capital available and are comfortable with currency exposure. That said, we view CDRs as a good complementary option within a portfolio, and we would be comfortable buying them for U.S. company exposure.
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Debt to equity is roughly 3.9X and interest coverage is 5X. The company has carried higher debt loads in the pat and we would not be too concerned about the debt here. Gross margins at the business are in the 65% range and net margins are in the 15% to 20% range, so we don't think margins are overly concerning either and there is some 'wiggle room' to take on higher growth, lower margin businesses as well, while still having a healthy margin profile.
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We would suggest EQL.
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We would be comfortable buying X today.
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Investing 101: The Advantage of Time
Time is a valuable asset in the realm of investing. Starting to save for retirement at a young age provides a significant advantage due to the power of compounding. Intuitively, most individuals tend to treat $1 as $1, however, the idea of consumption deferral (rather than immediate consumption, investing and delaying consumption) suggests that the value of $1 depends on how it is allocated. For example, $1 spent on a good or service that one can immediately use or consume has value to an individual, but even with a modest return of 7% per year, investing that $1 at age 20 can yield approximately 18 times the initial investment by the age of 65. In a sense, that $1 gets transformed into having a present-day value of $18.
This exponential growth is attributed to the reinvestment of earnings, where each year's gains generate additional returns in subsequent years. By starting early, individuals harness the full potential of compounding, allowing their money to work harder and grow significantly over time. In the below chart, we have visualized the leverage that is at one’s disposal by beginning their investment journey early. One dollar invested at the age of 20, growing at 7% per year becomes ~$21 by the age 65. As this individual ages, the future return of $1 invested shrinks – ie. at the age of 45 $1 invested for the next 20 years is ~$4.
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PLUG is moving as a new potential AI play, as well as by short covering (31% short interest). Interest in hydrogen and fuelcells has increased as investors fret about the need for power to run AI data centres. It has never made money and cash flow is massively negative. It is a bit of a MEME/FOMO stock right now, and we can't endorse it on its fundamentals.
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Gold can certainly correct but it is difficult to forecast and the reasons will vary. Gold has had five annual losses since 2005, including -51% in 2011 and -46% in 2013. The US dollar and interest rates are the biggest drivers (good and bad). Companies with good cost control such as AEM have very good leverage to price moves. At $5000 gold, we would be fairly sure AEM would trade above $300. It is 23x earnings today. We would be fine buying in the $235 range.
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FMC, $4B market cap, down 47% in the past year, is very cheap at 9X earnings, with a 7.2% dividend. But debt is extremely high (more than 10X recent 12-month cash flow) and earnings have stalled. 2026E EPS is expected to be less than it was seven years ago. The Q2 was decent, but free cash flow has been running negative on a 12-month basis. It did affirm guidance, but this is really a debt issue. If the global economy slows, their business is not likely to see big growth, but of course the debt will still be there. Going into year end tax selling we would sit this one out. We have no idea how Morningstar sees it tripling.
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Investing 101: Make mistakes when you are young with less money to lose
If you are going to make a mistake, in almost all cases it is probably better to make them young. With investing, you have more time to bounce back from a mistake but perhaps more importantly, the dollar value with which a mistake is being made is going to be far lower. A mistake at a young age is going to be far less impactful than at a later age and be assured, mistakes will be made whether you are active or passively investing.
As a 20-something that retires 40 years later (hopefully), you are probably not going to look back at that initial $10,000 you (maybe) lost in the market and view that as the big difference maker in your retirement. However, if that experience turned out well and led to added financial security, you will probably view it as one of the most important financial decisions you ever made.
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Egg prices have gone from $8 in March 2025 down to $1.15 in October. This declineis going to be a weight on shares and CALM does tend to have the large ebbs and flows. The valuation is accounting for a slowdown already, at 10X forward earnings. We think it is fine to hold but a bit of patience might be needed here.
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The stock is down 4% today. There was a lawsuit filed relating to the big decline earlier this year, but we would not consider this to be of any significance. The stock has had a huge run, up 133% in six months. We would view the dip as a correction. Risks and volatility exists here, but we would be willing to buy today.
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BDGI has seen strong momentum recently, up 70% year-to-date, and 60% over the past year. Forward sales growth is decent, in the high single-digit range, but earnings growth is expected to be low double digits, highlighting solid margin expansion. Its growth rates can be volatile and cyclical, but profit margins have mostly been rising, and it generates decent free cash flows. It trades at a decent valuation of 18X forward earnings. The recent move has been strong, and we think investors will want to see strong earnings to reflect its share price growth. We would not be surprised by some consolidation at some point, but for a long-term hold, we would be fine initiating a position here.
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We are comfortable with EMCC's strategy and would be fine with it if it matches one's objectives. However, it is quite small currently at only $14M assets. We would consider it too small to endorse. There are actually very few options with low US exposure. One we would be comfortable with is IDVO (US traded), with only 6% US exposure. Yields are a bit lower but still above average.
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