Vice President and Partner at Campbell Lee & Ross
Member since: Jan '12 · 1957 Opinions
What to do as the tariff war starts this morning? 1) Capital preservation. In recent years, easy money was made. Not now. 2) Be ready to buy names that fall and add them to your portfolio. 3) Raise cash so you can do #2. Extra 10% tariffs on China: When Trump imposed tariffs on China in his term, China devalued its currency, and those sanctions didn't work. Now, will China put sanctions on US companies? Wish list: Taking Nvidia for example, wait and watch for a floor before stepping in. If you've made huge gains, there's nothing wrong in taking some profits. Trim winners and raise some cash.
Buying Hershey's will be a large purchase for them. MDLZ is attractively priced, but he wouldn't buy. He prefers Lindt, which has outperformed. But he likes staples at this part of the cycle.
It's had a great run, but could underperform if we get a global recession, based on what Trump is doing. He wants to see this company go through one complete business cycle before considering it. Recent performance has been great, though.
Knows the company well. For these companies, do they have sufficient cash if we enter a recession so you can deploy capital to buy at a lower prices (and sell as the economy improves). It's a good franchise, but he'd prefer buying Brookfield and some European names to avoid paying an extra premium.
Millennials are not drinking as much as the older generations. Maybe they're not going out as much. This industry performs better in recessions. Though an excellent franchise, the stock hasn't gone anywhere. Chinese sanctions hurt Brown. Also, paying in CAD adds a 40% premium. The LCBO boycott will have an impact.
A great bank, but prefers other European banks. Not as well run as Canadian banks, and has less growth.
Generally, big tech are good companies, but have lost ground recently and their valuations have been nosebleeds for a long time. Meta is basically Facebook; he can message his mother in New Zealand cheaply, but fundamentally what will it do for him? Is it a sustainable business model. It's too early to say which of these names is a buy the dip, buy you could trim or take some names off the table.
Has owned this a long time, but has trimmed recently. Unfortunately, diabetes is a growing business. Stocks have fallen recently, because supply couldn't meet demand, but the price is attractive and reasonable.
There's a semi cycle and a new business line. Anything AI-related in semis has rocketed, and anything not is in a typical downcycle. A good long-term hold.
The commodity price and tariffs happened. He sold half his position at $70 a few years ago. He will double his position at $40. Wouldn't sell it here.
Will benefit from any passive flows given its huge weight in ETFs. A quality company. Is not overly concerned with credit losses.
They exited the renewables business. Huge share buybacks. Attractive price now and would hold long term.
Overall, look at Europe, rather than Japan.
They missed the mobile ecosystem. ARM Holdings has killed them every since. Intel is in terminal decline, no growth and will be taken out by somebody. Maybe take your losses.
It's a tax asset, so in this global environment, take the loss. Axon depends on a global product replacement cycle. It's sold off, but the valuation is too high.