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Vice President and Partner at Campbell Lee & Ross
Member since: Jan '12 · 2143 Opinions
Really surprised by their strength. Poor economy, in a technical recession now, probably a full recession next quarter based on what we're seeing. Yet the banks are moving higher.
Higher interest rates are good for banks until we see credit losses. Banks have not built up provisions. Lower rates would be beneficial for the Canadian economy, but bad for banks. But with oil at higher prices, it's very difficult to see rates being cut.
When he sees how much banks have run, he's taking profits for good risk management. Doesn't see the trajectory as sustainable. Remember how much these banks declined in 2008.
Healthcare looks fairly cheap. An example is AZN, which will increase revenues by 1/3 between now and 2030. Stock's up, but not meaningfully.
Consumer staples is another sector. Luxury goods have been decimated.
Money has flowed into energy and defense. If those stocks sell off, that capital will need a pathway to be redeployed into the economy. It'll be interesting to see where funds flow.
Has become the victim of a sort of new wokeism, which alienated a big chunk of consumers. He sold. Franchise is one of a kind, but management keeps making mistakes.
Inexpensive here, if you have a long horizon. Reasonable value, but no immediate catalyst. Business is good, it just needs to find the next CEO with the right vision; when they get that right, the stock will move.
Doesn't agree that AI is going to ruin construction businesses. The design portion of projects may be streamlined through AI, such as accelerating gathering data, but the fundamental narrative doesn't change. The Build Canada projects must be good for construction companies.
Not a sector he'd play, but it's OK at these levels.
Looking at a longer-term chart, not a huge growth rate for a company of this size with its level of market share in cloud computing. Recent pop, but he's troubled by capex spending and its issuing debt. Have to ask what's the value proposition?
If you own it, don't sell, but don't back up the truck either.
Likes cybersecurity, but look at the move on the chart since April, and now it's gone parabolic -- doesn't like that trend. He doesn't want to be that buyer when everyone else is getting out.
That said, expects significant growth in security markets. Premier name, great company. Wait for a better entry point. The recent pullback is not enough. Be patient, you'll get your chance. Below $200 would be the time to take a look.
The whole idea that we're going to see massive demand for energy from data centres ignores the fact that innovation is going to reduce consumption. It's a bit of a mistake to play the AI trade through utilities.
Likes that it bought assets on sale. Hopefully they're good assets, and they might turn out to be very good once gas prices normalize. Time will tell. Sees the move as positive, not negative. Good operator.
In the midst of Canada's technical recession, you have to think about what kind of investor you are. A basket of telcos can be used as a bond proxy, as it'll provide income in your portfolio. Income can then be used to protect you defensively on the downside, or to redeploy into growthier names. It gives your portfolio some ballast.
It's an income story, not a growth story. Doesn't see much problem if you hold it longer term. If Telus cut its dividend, he'd probably buy.
In the midst of Canada's technical recession, you have to think about what kind of investor you are. A basket of telcos can be used as a bond proxy, as it'll provide income in your portfolio. Income can then be used to protect you defensively on the downside, or to redeploy into growthier names. It gives your portfolio some ballast.
It's an income story, not a growth story. Doesn't see much problem if you hold it longer term. If Telus cut its dividend, he'd probably buy.