Stock price when the opinion was issued
Yesterday, he took just a little bit of gold out; on a 14% weighting, he sold around 2%. Doesn't own this one right now. If you're a longer-term player, gold has lots of room to go.
Gold looks a bit extended (temporarily). You can see that on the AEM chart; the breakout was around $80, had a good move, and now it's arcing off of the trendline.
Good company, but hard to buy right now. The only gold producer she owns. Yield is less than 1%, which no longer gives you much of a buffer; you're really banking on the stock price maintaining these levels. Stock more than doubled last year, up 72% this year. 90% of assets in really good jurisdictions.
Needs to see some steam come off the valuation before putting new $$ in.
Gold can certainly correct but it is difficult to forecast and the reasons will vary. Gold has had five annual losses since 2005, including -51% in 2011 and -46% in 2013. The US dollar and interest rates are the biggest drivers (good and bad). Companies with good cost control such as AEM have very good leverage to price moves. At $5000 gold, we would be fairly sure AEM would trade above $300. It is 23x earnings today. We would be fine buying in the $235 range.
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