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John Zechner
Chairman at J. Zechner & Assoc
Member since: Jan '01 · 3851 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.47 | 223 27.06% | 164 19.90% | 97 11.77% | 165 20.02% | 175 21.24% | ||
| 1 Month | 3 | 13 6.63% | 55 28.06% | 56 28.57% | 59 30.10% | 13 6.63% | |
| 6 Months | 2.08 | 37 19.37% | 41 21.47% | 22 11.52% | 54 28.27% | 37 19.37% | |
| 12 Months | 3.16 | 54 29.03% | 30 16.13% | 9 4.84% | 34 18.28% | 59 31.72% | |
| 2 Years | 4.81 | 72 43.37% | 24 14.46% | 9 5.42% | 14 8.43% | 47 28.31% | |
| 5 Years | 4.3 | 47 55.29% | 14 16.47% | 1 1.18% | 4 4.71% | 19 22.35% |
Stock Opinions by John Zechner
The current volatility doesn't totally surprise him; the market was in a risky position. We haven't hit bottom, because too many people remain too heavily invested in the market. The next move in interest rates will be lower and the economy is weakening. Today, Home Depot reported the latter, though investors are pricing this in. Starbucks, UPS, McDonald's, Airbnb, many companies are signalling a weaker economy, but has the marketed discounted this in valuations? He predicts a short, shallow recession, and a 0.5% rate cut in September to catch up to other central banks in Canada and Europe. This will ultimately benefit investors, because lower rates will support higher valuations. Buy on weakness.
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Telcos have acted poorly, so he's become cautious here. They have a higher PE and they used to earn this premium valuation because of ancilliary operations had growth, like technology. Their Telus International is a disaster. Telus faces more competition. BCE is very cheap and Rogers will grow after buying Shaw, so Telus is ranked third.
Recent earnings will slightly disappointing, and like many companies is seeing some growth slowdown. AmEx is cheaper. But Visa is a good play in payments.
Leg into this slowly. Expect a few more challenging quarters, while their PE is a little high. Even rate cuts won't trigger a bounce in the housing market. In the US, the mortgage rate has fallen from 7% to 6.5%, but the 30-year mortgage is under 4%. A better leading indicator is the price of lumber.
Picking up small industrial companies has been a great strategy, while the last few quarters have beaten expectations. Well-managed, though economically sensitive. Likes this growth-oriented industrial.
Has recovered well in recent years, but it's private equity, which is opaque--what do they own?
His top pick in the past. This offers rare growth in the industrial space. Expects 25% earnings cash flow growth over 5 years and likely a 8x cash flow.
Long-term, the story hasn't changed: there will still be supply constraints that won't meet growing demand from EVs and the electricity grid. This, like mid-sized copper miners--are possible takeover targets.
He lightened shares recently amid disappointing earnings in recent quarters, plus they made more credit provisions. Buying the bank of the west was huge. It now ranks at the bottom of Canadian banks, but tailwinds are developing for the long terms for Canadian banks.
His top pick in Canadian banks. True, many don't like their KeyCorp purchase, but it gives BNS national presence in the US and the valuation is cheap.
He doesn't know what penalty they will pay over money-laundering charges in the US, but TD has a ton of free cash flow that they could use to buy more shares and operations are very good.
Yes, a good bank, and recent acquisitions were smart, but they trade at a valuation. He prefers a cheaper one among Canadian banks, like BNS.
Telcos disappointed the past year, there's price competition and Rogers swallowed an acquisition. But interest rates are starting to fall and the operating cash flow is only 7x. He still likes it.
He took some profits after a good run. Is a better third play in pipelines because of its growth potential. Trades at 9x operating cash, beat earnings last week and pays around a 6% dividend. Offers some growth.
We didn't have a winter last year. People bought ski-doos during the pandemic, but are travelling now. He still likes it. It's cheap and there's less competition now. He sold it, but will re-enter it.
