John Zechner
Member since: Jan '01
Chairman at
J. Zechner & Assoc
J. Zechner & Assoc
3104 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 5%) US dollar and trade issues have been headwinds for all commodities. Generates cash flow, more stable.
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 73%) Price of zinc dropped, and that changed the dynamic. Trading at 2.5 times cash flow, but no one cares.
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 3%) Got hammered. They and Facebook own online advertising, and they have control over mass data. They'll survive. Great cash generation, reasonable valuation, continued 20%+ growth.
Growth by acquisition strategy. Great migration from license sales to the cloud. Continued great growth. Excess free cash flow pays down the debt. Yield is 1.71%. (Analysts’ price target is $61.57)
Rather than playing bullion directly, this ETF has a lot of the big cap stocks like Barrick, Agnico, and Franco-Nevada. Diversify the risk, and a more direct play on the commodity. He's more confident in gold going higher than any specific country or mine. Yield is 0.38%.
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COMMENT
COMMENT
September 9, 2019
Glorious time for the markets? It's a confusing time to say the least. Throw out the playbook. Negative interest rates change everything. There's both a bull and a bear market going on. Global trepidation, yet the S&P is 2% off its high. Rare to see gold rallying when US dollar is strong. Now with negative interest rates, gold is looking attractive. When all paper currencies are depreciating at the same time, gold makes sense. Bitcoin has more growth, but doesn't have the same acceptability.
Glorious time for the markets? It's a confusing time to say the least. Throw out the playbook. Negative interest rates change everything. There's both a bull and a bear market going on. Global trepidation, yet the S&P is 2% off its high. Rare to see gold rallying when US dollar is strong. Now with negative interest rates, gold is looking attractive. When all paper currencies are depreciating at the same time, gold makes sense. Bitcoin has more growth, but doesn't have the same acceptability.
John Zechner
Chairman, J. Zechner & Assoc
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 9, 2019
Next week's Fed rate decision. Market is 96% expecting a 25 basis point cut. They won't go a half point. Economic data's weakening, but not slow enough to justify an aggressive move, and they can't just do nothing. Fed doesn't like to disappoint the market.
Next week's Fed rate decision. Market is 96% expecting a 25 basis point cut. They won't go a half point. Economic data's weakening, but not slow enough to justify an aggressive move, and they can't just do nothing. Fed doesn't like to disappoint the market.
John Zechner
Chairman, J. Zechner & Assoc
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 9, 2019
How long can the US carry the rest of the world? Already breaking down the US economy. Consumer is touted as strong, but it's the last area to break down. Business spending is down, and profits have rolled over. Then consumer confidence drops, and the cycle ends. Hard to gauge, as negative interest rates add a different dynamic.
How long can the US carry the rest of the world? Already breaking down the US economy. Consumer is touted as strong, but it's the last area to break down. Business spending is down, and profits have rolled over. Then consumer confidence drops, and the cycle ends. Hard to gauge, as negative interest rates add a different dynamic.
John Zechner
Chairman, J. Zechner & Assoc
HOLD
HOLD
September 9, 2019
A core holding. Valuation, long-life reserves. Safe, dividend-oriented, and international interest in it.
A core holding. Valuation, long-life reserves. Safe, dividend-oriented, and international interest in it.
integrated oils
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 9, 2019
Not shorting any gold right now. Stock's run well ahead of the group, so he's not as enamoured with this name. He'd look at B2Gold. For domestic, he'd take Detour Gold. Gold is the default winner in the face of US debt putting pressure on the dollar, and will probably be higher in 6 months.
Not shorting any gold right now. Stock's run well ahead of the group, so he's not as enamoured with this name. He'd look at B2Gold. For domestic, he'd take Detour Gold. Gold is the default winner in the face of US debt putting pressure on the dollar, and will probably be higher in 6 months.
precious metals
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
Globally into enterprise solutions. Standalone products, so you don't have to worry much about Huawei. They've adjusted to the cloud-based environment. Huge cash generator. Reasonable valuations. Cash on balance sheet. Buying back stock.
Globally into enterprise solutions. Standalone products, so you don't have to worry much about Huawei. They've adjusted to the cloud-based environment. Huge cash generator. Reasonable valuations. Cash on balance sheet. Buying back stock.
electrical/electronic
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
CEO has reinvented company dramatically. One of the best cloud-based companies out there. Cash on balance sheet. Valuation high, but not outrageous.
CEO has reinvented company dramatically. One of the best cloud-based companies out there. Cash on balance sheet. Valuation high, but not outrageous.
computer software/processing
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 9, 2019
It's not for everybody. There's a risk that volatility will spike. He's been playing the VXX in the US, a volatility ETF. You have to keep an eye on it. You protect the upside by holding something that does better in a down market.
It's not for everybody. There's a risk that volatility will spike. He's been playing the VXX in the US, a volatility ETF. You have to keep an eye on it. You protect the upside by holding something that does better in a down market.
indexes
SELL
SELL
September 9, 2019
Biggest winner in technology in the last 10 years. He shorted this stock in the last week. Harder time finding acquisitions at the right valuation. Getting squeezed. No organic growth.
Biggest winner in technology in the last 10 years. He shorted this stock in the last week. Harder time finding acquisitions at the right valuation. Getting squeezed. No organic growth.
computer software/processing
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 9, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 5%) US dollar and trade issues have been headwinds for all commodities. Generates cash flow, more stable.
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 5%) US dollar and trade issues have been headwinds for all commodities. Generates cash flow, more stable.
agriculture
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 9, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 73%) Price of zinc dropped, and that changed the dynamic. Trading at 2.5 times cash flow, but no one cares.
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 73%) Price of zinc dropped, and that changed the dynamic. Trading at 2.5 times cash flow, but no one cares.
Mining
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 9, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 3%) Got hammered. They and Facebook own online advertising, and they have control over mass data. They'll survive. Great cash generation, reasonable valuation, continued 20%+ growth.
(A Top Pick Aug 27/18, Down 3%) Got hammered. They and Facebook own online advertising, and they have control over mass data. They'll survive. Great cash generation, reasonable valuation, continued 20%+ growth.
Business Services
HOLD
HOLD
September 9, 2019
Risk is the valuation, and the landscape changes quickly. Discount retailers have done better, and do better in down market environments. Will continue to do well. Not sure there's anything to be concerned about. Wouldn't have a huge position, but wouldn't be in a rush to sell.
Risk is the valuation, and the landscape changes quickly. Discount retailers have done better, and do better in down market environments. Will continue to do well. Not sure there's anything to be concerned about. Wouldn't have a huge position, but wouldn't be in a rush to sell.
department stores
HOLD
HOLD
September 9, 2019
Valuations on rails have come down. He's fine with the rails in here. Short-term risk for the entire group is the economy and trade. Earning estimates are coming down across the board. (Analysts’ price target is $186.00)
Valuations on rails have come down. He's fine with the rails in here. Short-term risk for the entire group is the economy and trade. Earning estimates are coming down across the board. (Analysts’ price target is $186.00)
Transportation
BUY
BUY
September 9, 2019
Big problem was buildup of debt. But this has been corrected to some degree. Decent dividend. Risk with Line 3 and 5, but regulatory risk will always be there. Valuations are more reasonable than they've been for a while.
Big problem was buildup of debt. But this has been corrected to some degree. Decent dividend. Risk with Line 3 and 5, but regulatory risk will always be there. Valuations are more reasonable than they've been for a while.
oil/gas pipelines
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