John Zechner
Member since: Jan '01
Chairman at
J. Zechner & Assoc
J. Zechner & Assoc
3260 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Up 275%) He kept picking away it and still owns it. A few years ago, this stood at $80, but fell to $10 when they a great deal to buy DigitalGlobe which increased the company's value though levered the balance sheet. MAXR does satellite imaging and analytics for defence and many other industries. It has a 10x operating cash flow, so it's still not expensive. This could hit $100.
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Down 64%) He recommended this long before Covid. Still owns it. The oil industry has been decimated and hard to get excited over.
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Down 14%) He's disappointed with the telecoms, given how people are streaming more during Covid and there's decent earnings growth. Rogers' sports operations took a hit earlier this year (when there was no sports), and Rogers hit a bump with the unlimited data offer, but both are in the past. He still owns it. Rogers has more potential to grow its dividend (it's relatively low now) vs. its peers. He still likes this story.
He's held this for 30 years. Investors underestimate their infrastructure assets in their networks built-out. The stock is cheap now. They benefit from heavy streaming now. They generate good cash flow and a cheap valuation. (He also own BCE, Telus and Shaw.) Rogers' advantage as that it trades at a similar valuation, but pays the lowest dividend in the group, which means they can increase their dividend in the future. True, he's been disappointed in their performance this year, but it's a buying opportunity now. (Analysts’ price target is $63.64)
A cheap stock that's survived the downturn with a healthy balance sheet as they pay down debt. It trades at 4x forward operating cash flow which is growing, and probably boasts 10x forward earnings. The car business is coming back. Auto parts company can shift to meet demand in growing e-cars. (Analysts’ price target is $14.94)
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COMMENT
COMMENT
October 13, 2020
All investors are probably confused that we're in the worst economy in decades, yet the American stock markets are reaching all-time highs. In some ways, though, there's a bigger bubble in bonds. As for negative interest rates have failed in places like Japan. How much lower can interest rates go? This and the unattractiveness of cash are driving the stock rally by default. Eventually, this stock rally will break, and this pandemic won't go on forever. We will recover, though at what rate? He predicts global growth in coming years to be subdued as governments lower their debts made during this pandemic. Driving US markets is the feeling that the Federal Reserve has our back. He continues to be in stocks, but is being defensive, though is tilting towards value which he predicts will be a wider multi-year trend in markets.
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All investors are probably confused that we're in the worst economy in decades, yet the American stock markets are reaching all-time highs. In some ways, though, there's a bigger bubble in bonds. As for negative interest rates have failed in places like Japan. How much lower can interest rates go? This and the unattractiveness of cash are driving the stock rally by default. Eventually, this stock rally will break, and this pandemic won't go on forever. We will recover, though at what rate? He predicts global growth in coming years to be subdued as governments lower their debts made during this pandemic. Driving US markets is the feeling that the Federal Reserve has our back. He continues to be in stocks, but is being defensive, though is tilting towards value which he predicts will be a wider multi-year trend in markets.
BUY
BUY
October 13, 2020
He's added to this recently. The banks have done a very good job; their capital ratios remain resilient. He sees no risk of any Canadian bank cutting their dividends--they're safe. We've probably seen the worst impact of Covid on their earnings. There's a lot of stimulus out there. Balance sheets are in good shape. Wealth management businesses have done well during this pandemic. Trades at a decent valuation and pays a good dividend. It's a safe investment. He's long the banks, Canadian and US.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe's added to this recently. The banks have done a very good job; their capital ratios remain resilient. He sees no risk of any Canadian bank cutting their dividends--they're safe. We've probably seen the worst impact of Covid on their earnings. There's a lot of stimulus out there. Balance sheets are in good shape. Wealth management businesses have done well during this pandemic. Trades at a decent valuation and pays a good dividend. It's a safe investment. He's long the banks, Canadian and US.
banks
BUY
BUY
October 13, 2020
Cybersecurity is a huge growth business, and it has always been BB's strength. It generates cash flow and are making good acquisitions. The slow-down in car production effected BB, but that was temporary. It trades at a reasonable valuation. CEO Chen is moving BB in the right direction. This is an underloved company which had done an amazing pivot.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCybersecurity is a huge growth business, and it has always been BB's strength. It generates cash flow and are making good acquisitions. The slow-down in car production effected BB, but that was temporary. It trades at a reasonable valuation. CEO Chen is moving BB in the right direction. This is an underloved company which had done an amazing pivot.
electrical/electronic
BUY
BUY
October 13, 2020
Keyera vs. Pembina He owns both. Keyera: pays a slightly higher dividend, but also slightly riskier, due to its mix of liquids and gas processing, so probably more earnings volatility short-term. Pembina is a pipeline play with operating cash flow around 9-10x. They were resilient in the downturn. What's good about both is that they are sensitive to volumes, not the oil price, especially Pembina. The dividends are safe and earnings resilient. If the stocks do nothing, at least both pay more than 8% in dividend yields.
Keyera vs. Pembina He owns both. Keyera: pays a slightly higher dividend, but also slightly riskier, due to its mix of liquids and gas processing, so probably more earnings volatility short-term. Pembina is a pipeline play with operating cash flow around 9-10x. They were resilient in the downturn. What's good about both is that they are sensitive to volumes, not the oil price, especially Pembina. The dividends are safe and earnings resilient. If the stocks do nothing, at least both pay more than 8% in dividend yields.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 13, 2020
Buy the pullback? It's probably fine, but he's squeasy about office space occupancy in downtown Toronto. He'd rather avoid stocks that are tied to downtown office real estate and play it safe. BPY are good operators with a strong balance sheet, though.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBuy the pullback? It's probably fine, but he's squeasy about office space occupancy in downtown Toronto. He'd rather avoid stocks that are tied to downtown office real estate and play it safe. BPY are good operators with a strong balance sheet, though.
REAL ESTATE
BUY
BUY
October 13, 2020
For income investors He sold this at $18. It's likely safe to own again and the yield is safe. Stable earnings, though only single-digit growth. He's comfortable with this. It pays a 5.8% yield, paid monthly.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFor income investors He sold this at $18. It's likely safe to own again and the yield is safe. Stable earnings, though only single-digit growth. He's comfortable with this. It pays a 5.8% yield, paid monthly.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
October 13, 2020
It's hard not to like this given the explosion of internet use and how dominant BABA is in China online. Investors who were concerned with the company's accounting are growing more comfortable with it. It's a great global internet play. Good to own in a portfolio. BABA has branded very well. We'll see how or if US-China relations change after the Nov. 3 US election vote.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's hard not to like this given the explosion of internet use and how dominant BABA is in China online. Investors who were concerned with the company's accounting are growing more comfortable with it. It's a great global internet play. Good to own in a portfolio. BABA has branded very well. We'll see how or if US-China relations change after the Nov. 3 US election vote.
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
October 13, 2020
Oil companies are moving towards renewables. SU is underappreciated given its assets. Operating costs for the oil industry are around $15/barrel, so they can still make money even at these oil prices. There are 20-30 years of oil reserves. SU is a good low-cost play for the long term that he's comfortable to hold for the long term.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOil companies are moving towards renewables. SU is underappreciated given its assets. Operating costs for the oil industry are around $15/barrel, so they can still make money even at these oil prices. There are 20-30 years of oil reserves. SU is a good low-cost play for the long term that he's comfortable to hold for the long term.
integrated oils
BUY
BUY
October 13, 2020
Keyera vs. Pembina He owns both. Keyera: pays a slightly higher dividend, but also slightly riskier, due to its mix of liquids and gas processing, so probably more earnings volatility short-term. Pembina is a pipeline play with operating cash flow around 9-10x. They were resilient in the downturn. What's good about both is that they are sensitive to volumes, not the oil price, especially Pembina. The dividends are safe and earnings resilient. If the stocks do nothing, at least both pay more than 8% in dividend yields.
Keyera vs. Pembina He owns both. Keyera: pays a slightly higher dividend, but also slightly riskier, due to its mix of liquids and gas processing, so probably more earnings volatility short-term. Pembina is a pipeline play with operating cash flow around 9-10x. They were resilient in the downturn. What's good about both is that they are sensitive to volumes, not the oil price, especially Pembina. The dividends are safe and earnings resilient. If the stocks do nothing, at least both pay more than 8% in dividend yields.
pipelines
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 13, 2020
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Up 275%) He kept picking away it and still owns it. A few years ago, this stood at $80, but fell to $10 when they a great deal to buy DigitalGlobe which increased the company's value though levered the balance sheet. MAXR does satellite imaging and analytics for defence and many other industries. It has a 10x operating cash flow, so it's still not expensive. This could hit $100.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Up 275%) He kept picking away it and still owns it. A few years ago, this stood at $80, but fell to $10 when they a great deal to buy DigitalGlobe which increased the company's value though levered the balance sheet. MAXR does satellite imaging and analytics for defence and many other industries. It has a 10x operating cash flow, so it's still not expensive. This could hit $100.
computer software/processing
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 13, 2020
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Down 64%) He recommended this long before Covid. Still owns it. The oil industry has been decimated and hard to get excited over.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Down 64%) He recommended this long before Covid. Still owns it. The oil industry has been decimated and hard to get excited over.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 13, 2020
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Down 14%) He's disappointed with the telecoms, given how people are streaming more during Covid and there's decent earnings growth. Rogers' sports operations took a hit earlier this year (when there was no sports), and Rogers hit a bump with the unlimited data offer, but both are in the past. He still owns it. Rogers has more potential to grow its dividend (it's relatively low now) vs. its peers. He still likes this story.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Down 14%) He's disappointed with the telecoms, given how people are streaming more during Covid and there's decent earnings growth. Rogers' sports operations took a hit earlier this year (when there was no sports), and Rogers hit a bump with the unlimited data offer, but both are in the past. He still owns it. Rogers has more potential to grow its dividend (it's relatively low now) vs. its peers. He still likes this story.
Cable
BUY
BUY
October 13, 2020
He owns the big American banks. BAC has more of a retail operation than its investment. They did a good job turning around with its acquisitions. Well-positioned. They've held back in paying their dividends because of restrictions, and can't increase dividends or do buybacks. Overall, though, the banks are in good shape. He's been adding to his holding.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe owns the big American banks. BAC has more of a retail operation than its investment. They did a good job turning around with its acquisitions. Well-positioned. They've held back in paying their dividends because of restrictions, and can't increase dividends or do buybacks. Overall, though, the banks are in good shape. He's been adding to his holding.
banks
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
October 13, 2020
Has done very well, considering their business is retail business payments. Recent earnings beat the street. They just did a listing in the U.S. which will likely raise valuations, but that valuation is as bad as, say, Shopify. It's not without its risks. The sector has very high valuations.
Has done very well, considering their business is retail business payments. Recent earnings beat the street. They just did a listing in the U.S. which will likely raise valuations, but that valuation is as bad as, say, Shopify. It's not without its risks. The sector has very high valuations.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 13, 2020
He prefers buying a insurance company directly like Manulife and Intact. Though well-run, FFH has a mixed bag of many assets. This mix adds a level of risk vs. pure insurers.
insurance
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