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John Zechner
Chairman at J. Zechner & Assoc
Member since: Jan '01 · 3881 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.47 | 225 27.47% | 159 19.41% | 95 11.60% | 167 20.39% | 173 21.12% | ||
| 1 Month | 3.02 | 14 7.11% | 55 27.92% | 57 28.93% | 57 28.93% | 14 7.11% | |
| 6 Months | 2.08 | 38 20.11% | 40 21.16% | 20 10.58% | 55 29.10% | 36 19.05% | |
| 12 Months | 3.15 | 55 29.89% | 28 15.22% | 9 4.89% | 34 18.48% | 58 31.52% | |
| 2 Years | 4.79 | 71 43.29% | 23 14.02% | 8 4.88% | 16 9.76% | 46 28.05% | |
| 5 Years | 4.29 | 47 55.29% | 13 15.29% | 1 1.18% | 5 5.88% | 19 22.35% |
Stock Opinions by John Zechner
September was surprisingly good, typically the worst month. But Jay Powell's 50-point interest rate cut and China's stimulus pleased the bulls. But he's a little suspicious of October. The Canadian market had a good Q3 and non-tech enjoyed a broadening in the rally. Geopolitics are unknown, but interest rates are heading alot lower as economic data will soften. Earnings expectations are elevated. Be cautious with cyclicals. Thre's still a trade in bonds. Sentiment and valuations are extended. Stay close to the exits.
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The multiple is still elevated. They face more competition, especially overseas. And consumers are spending less.
The CEO has done a great job the last 2 years, consolidating it a bit and focusing it to turn around the company. It remains not best in class, though trades at an unheard of 70% of book value. There's upside to earnings. The valuation gap with peers is closing. Likes it overall.
It's hard to argue against Microsoft. They've earned the higher valuation. He himself started using Microsoft Office 365 instead of spending a lot more to replace his company's server, and 365 has worked seamlessly. This is why MSFT is winning cloud business. Yes, MSFT is expensive. Hold if you own it. Apple is also a good business. Them and Androids run 80% of phone software globally; Apple continues to add features which will enhance growth. There's too much hype in AI rejuvenating iPhones. People will upgrades phones anyway. True, everyone has a phone, so that growth has slowed.
It's hard to argue against Microsoft. They've earned the higher valuation. He himself started using Microsoft Office 365 instead of spending a lot more to replace his company's server, and 365 has worked seamlessly. This is why MSFT is winning cloud business. Yes, MSFT is expensive. Hold if you own it. Apple is also a good business. Them and Androids run 80% of phone software globally; Apple continues to add features which will enhance growth. There's too much hype in AI rejuvenating iPhones. People will upgrades phones anyway.
It's now cheap, and the bad news has been baked into it. They missed earnings three straight quarters, earlier. That said, the valuation and dividend doesn't make this a bad bet. He still prefers CIBC, but BMO is ownable and pays a decent dividend.
It's been at a discount from all its peers but that is eroding due to them beating earnings. His preferred Canadian bank.
He bought it below $10, but then took profits around $15. He watches it. Wants to see them deliver growth ahead.
It's been miserable and was exiting some of his position today. Maybe they will sell some of their businesses. Operating insurance and providing benefits has raised their costs and growth a lot. Regulations have also hurt. He doesn't see growth.
He likes telcos. The best stocks in the US this year have been telcos. Same here. There's been a 2-year overhang with telcos in Canada with a fourth player entering, but valuations have fallen at 6-7x operating cash low, great dividends and growth potential. Will benefit from AI implementation. But he prefers Rogers for growth and BCE with its higher dividend. So, Telus is third in this group.
It trades at 22x forward PE in a slowing economy. Also, the new labour contract is an overhang. He owns no rails, though he liked CP's KC merger, but you're paying for that now. He prefers Alphabet trading at the same 22x.
He sold it last year, but bought it back recently under $60. Likes their assets--they have light oil as well as great natural gas assets. Nat gas has been under pressure, though. TOU is not as cheap as oil stock, but more diversified with better growth potential.
A year ago, the stock was very out of favour and losing market share. But they have restructured to impress the market. In recent days has taken some profits. It still has growth constraints.
Compared to peers, they offer better growth with a smaller system and runs more east-west than north-south. It's closed the valuation gap a little in this sector, and the dividend is strong.
The car sector has disappointed, is floundering. He sold some car stocks, but held onto MRE because it's cheap. Is lots of insider buying and margins are improving. Are almost immune from the EV transition because the components they made can be used in gas as well as electric cars. 8-9x forward PE and a good balance sheet.
