Dan Rohinton
Portfolio Manager at iA Global Asset Management
Member since: Jan '25 · 97 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 0.00% | 5 55.56% | 2 22.22% | 1 11.11% | 1 11.11% | ||
| 1 Month | 0 | 0 0.00% | 4 66.67% | 1 16.67% | 1 16.67% | 0 0.00% | |
| 6 Months | 0 | 0 0.00% | 1 33.33% | 1 33.33% | 0 0.00% | 1 33.33% |
Stock Opinions by Dan Rohinton
The tech sector is driving things and, more specifically, it's really by the AI-related companies and the perceived AI winners. It tends to be like a gravitational force, where all the money gets sucked into the NVDAs, MSFTs, and ORCLs of the world and then also into the derivative plays. It means there aren't a lot of funds left over for consumer packaged goods companies, international insurance, etc.
This is very much a US trend, as well as a global trend. So it's a tale of Haves and Have Nots, led by AI.
When it comes to perceived AI losers, or what's left behind, the market tends to be overly focused on certain areas of growth. The economy appears to be imbalanced at all times in certain areas. He doesn't mean this in a negative connotation.
For example, there's market leadership in terms of industrial production. For a while it was automation, then it was electrification. Now it's the industrial renaissance because the data centre is the new form of compute and intelligence. That type of coalescing around one theme just means that everything else gets left in the dust.
On the Canadian market, this will be good news for all the gold bugs out there. If we're being fully honest with ourselves, inflation hasn't really been conquered as a risk to the Fed's inflation mandate or to the BOC's focus on jobs. It's a nice way of saying let's go back to negative real rates.
The reason the BOC is more dovish, and needs to be, is because we have a housing financialization dynamic on the other end. The housing markets anywhere in the GTA and parts of BC are starting to see illiquidity and rising losses at the margin.
As for the Federal Reserve, they're looking at inflation and saying that's yesterday's problem (even though it's not). They're looking at unemployment, which is loosening at the margin from record generational highs, and saying that this is the big problem we have to solve.
Negative real rates, within reason, will be good for equities across the board. Also good for gold. And AI is the big conversation within equities.
Historically, a platform for music. Increasingly diversifying into podcasts and other types of formats. Great platform, great retention, improving monetization. Tiered approach (free, ads, premium) makes perfect sense. But it's over 40x free cashflow.
Would still own over a 10-year horizon, but more opportunities along the value chain in music labels.
E-commerce and cloud computing (the most nascent piece). E-commerce is under a lot of strain. AI large-language models are compelling in Chinese market, but that entire market is very competitive and ripe for disruptors. A trading stock over the next 2-3 years. Not a buy-and-hold. Tactically a buy today, but be very careful.
Banks tend to move on the same macro variables. It's too painful on your taxes to sell this one only to buy another similar one. You're better off just holding on.
Not a compelling barn-burner buy today, at best it's a hold. European banks are tactically more attractive than the US and, especially, the Canadian banks.
Still an attractive hold. The way to analyze this company is by 3 simple criteria.
One, look at their solvency 2 ratios (TRYG has modest excess capital, so some should come back to shareholders). Second, the main metric for P&C insurers is the combined ratio (TRYG is top-notch in mid-80s, which translates to profit margin ~15%). Third, look at direct premium written growth and net premiums earned to understand how much of their business they're reinsuring away and what future revenue looks like.
A bonus metric is prior year development to see the quality of the underwriting.
This speaks to large catastrophe events, which typically go to the reinsurance market. If it's a really esoteric risk, such as piracy risk off the coast of Somalia, that goes to what's call the "excess and surplus" market, which then goes to Lloyd's of London.
These catastrophic risks will get more and more expensive as time goes on. Katrina in 2006 was the high-water mark for this. It's been pretty decent since then. So the reinsurance market has actually been one of the weakest, lowest-margin, competitive segments. A company like CB actually takes some of their risk and offloads it onto reinsurance.
A company like CB actually takes some of their risk and offloads it onto reinsurance. So you don't need to worry about catastrophic events affecting this name as a structural headwind. Diversified, global company with flexible balance sheet and capital ratios. Such events could, however, affect smaller or niche companies.
Not really a compelling buy today. Has gone through pretty aggressive pricing cycle due to inflation. Fantastic company, but he's cautious.
Best-performing bank this year. (Let's ignore capital gains and tax losses for simplicity in answering the question.) Looking ahead, no longer at the compelling value it was before. Great job clearing up concerns over asset cap.
Whole Canadian banking sector is fully valued, trading effectively at record highs on valuation. Not time to load up. Time to take some profits and invest in more defensive names, as Canadian economy is on a more fragile footing than other parts of the world.
Think of this name as the unsung hero of the AI conversation. NVDA gets the credit, but TSM does the hard work of making these chips at the atomic layer. The very last AI stock he'd sell. It's also the cheapest, with the most latent pricing power. Will benefit from deepening of semiconductor technology in our day-to-day lives, including in AI data centres.
Not a screaming bargain at these levels. A hold, but still decent returns ahead.
If offers the most diversified distribution of software technology around the world. Not really an AI company, but a distribution platform for the Fortune 5000. Not a compelling bargain today, more of a hold. You have to look long term for 5-10 years -- it will have a role to play, no matter which way the technology goes.
