
Chief investment strategist at Hightower
Member since: Feb '22 · 232 Opinions
She just bought more. Is surprised it hasn't recovered from being down 11% this year. The last quarter was very good. She expects them to gain market share going forward. Their Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) targets of 17-18% are not aggressive and could do better, and their guide of net-interest income was better for the full year. At 1.5x book is attractive. The bank has lagged peers but will catch up in coming quarters.
Though up 21% this year, it's -48% of its peak. Painful, but she's holding on for the AI build-out. Also, GEV is still up 26% this year (-31% off peak) and Quanta 29% (-30% off peak). The fundamentals don't justify this pullback in these. Momentum is slipping, but they will all have great quarters, backlogs and margins. All are buys.
Lock-up expiration was yesterday. She bought more, adding to her long-term holding. The earnings report was excellent across all segments. EBITDA was up. She understands why the stock fell on the news--all their spending plans--but the payback in the AI segment will be within a year. They're doubling subscribers. They beat operating margins. They had $14 billion in cloud service agreements this quarter alone, and she expects $60 billion annually in the future.
They report next week. Is down 13% this year. Disappointing. Their deliveries will be light because of product constraints. When do we get better cash flow? If they guide to $4-5 billion for 2027, we'll be okay, given low expectations.