Chief investment strategist at Hightower
Member since: Feb '22 · 152 Opinions
Reported today but shares are down. They are being conservative. The US consumer was +12%, card fees 18%, NII 15%--all good numbers. Also, shares are up so much this year. A good story.
Owns a lot, but has been trimming it, because it's had a nice run into the quarter. She loves it long term. Even when their old iPhone had sluggish sales, company gross and operating margins both expanded as services grew double digits.
It trades cheaper than Apple, but shares are up only 1.9% in the last quarter, so expectations are very low due to worries over profits and higher costs. But AWS and ads will be great when they next report; these are high-margin businesses at 33% and 50%. If shares stay flat, she may add to her holding. Progress may not show up this quarter, though.
Trades at 24x forward PE at only 1% organic growth. She's surprised they raised prices again, though they have pricing power, but at some point it will hurt volumes.
Earnings beat, but revenues miss. She sighs. Shares rallied into the print. EBITDA was good and free cash flow beat expectations. Digital was up 25% YOY. Trades at only 12x forward PE, the best oil services stock.
A decade-long theme, not short term is in housing, if interest rates fall from 6.7% to 5.5% (likely in 2025). She likes DR Horton, but it's up 87% the past year, though is cheap now and gross margins are good.
A decade-long theme, not short term is in housing, if interest rates fall from 6.7% to 5.5% (likely in 2025). She prefers Home Depot in this space, since competitor LL Flooring went bankrupt, and HD has easy comparisons. They had 7-straight quarters of negative comps, but will snap that. She expects better gross margins.
Copper supply is tight. Each 10-cent/pound rise in price means $200 million in cash flow. Expects great cash flow. Shares always fall before a quarter, so it's an opportunity now. China stimulus could be a big boost to sales.
They report next week. They benefit from Boeing's woes, because 70% of revenues are engines and services.
They report next week. The CEO pulled it off through M&A and now we're seeing growth.
Is the #1 player in the industry. Is still -26% from its highs despite a 33% snapback.
Upgraded today, but lags the S&P this year and hasn't done anything in the past two, because rates were high and housing was soft. They had 7 straight quarters of negative same-store sales. So, comps are easy and profitability is strong. She still likes it, but it isn't cheap.
Was upgraded today. It's underperformed GS and the market since 2021. Their banking fees and M&A pipeline are both strong. Higher asset prices should benefit wealth management. Net interest income should rise as the yield curve steepens. It trades at 13x forward PE and pays a 3.5% dividend yield. They can use excess capital for share buybacks.
She re-bought after they reported a great quarter this week, gaining market share in their non-interest income (investment banking, wealth management, credit cards) and their balance sheet is excellent. They have enormous room to catch up in their assets vs. peers.