Today, The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) and Gordon Reid commented about whether MTZ-N, CRWD-Q, AAPL-Q, ELV-N, DRS-Q, C-N, JPM-N, BLK-N, PFE-N, INTC-Q, MS-N, NDAQ-Q, AMZN-Q, GOOG-Q, UBER-N, F-N, BAC-N, DY-N, IBM-N, BBAR-N, UPWK-Q, TA-T, NVDA-Q, HCI-N, GL-N, GAP-N are stocks to buy or sell.
The US economy is in fairly good shape. Labour looks good, though there's lingering inflation with the tariff impact yet to hit. Longer term, he's construction. AI will be deflationary in the long run, and the tariffs will be temporary. Valuations: markets are fully valued, though could rise on organic growth or greater expectations of future growth. He expected volatility this year, though not as deep as last April. Last quarter, the market didn't hold CEOs' feet to the fire when they said that they don't know what's happening because of tariffs, so they pulled guidance; normally, that hurts stock prices, but not last quarter. This time, investors want to know guidance. Last quarter was good, and he hopes this will be.
Has owned it in the past. When he held this at $180, the market was ignoring IBM's AI business and saw low growth. So, he bought it. IBM teamed up with Meta to enhance their Watson franchise. He made good money. Then, he started to see the PE rising into the 20s, and Accenture and other peers reported weak results. So, he exited and wouldn't re-enter.
The fear about them was that AI will eat into GOOG's search market share. Yes, AI will, but the overall search market will likely grow. So, GOOG's market share could shrink, but it's search business could still grow. He's bullish. Also, GOOG has a partnership with Uber in self-driving cars, an exciting, growing business. Third, GOOG owns YouTube which dominates the streaming market by far, bigger than Netflix.
As consumer spending steadies, analysts expect GAP to benefit thru its many well recognized brands. Meanwhile it has been quietly accumulating cash, while buying back shares. It trades at 9x earnings, 2.3x book and supports a robust 29% ROE. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 1/3 of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $14, looking to achieve $27 -- upside potential of 28%. Yield 3.0%
(Analysts’ price target is $27.07)