Barry Schwartz

Jamie Dimon's warning of an "economic hurricane". A very vocal CEO, who has his hands on the pulse of the US economy. He also said some positive things, such as loan growth is good and the US economy and consumer are doing well. We all know about the bad stuff. Let's talk about the good. US economy may not grow as much as expected, but it's doing fine. At the beginning of 2022, the only thing we were worried about were supply chain issues. He's hopeful that a lot of bad news is now in the market.

Positive thoughts on the markets. Maybe some of supply issues will be fixed. Maybe the Fed has already done a lot of damage with its actions and communications. Today's warning by MSFT was based on foreign exchange, not on fundamentals of the business. We're jumping the gun on fretting and worries. For long-term investors now's your opportunity, though stocks could go lower. You want to buy when stocks are low, not when everyone wants to own them.

When the economy's thriving, you get inflation. There's no playbook for the type of inflation we have. That's why central banks are freaking out. They're entire being is to knock out inflation and keep unemployment low. It's a "man with the hammer" syndrome, just keep on doing what they're doing. US has 11 million job openings. If we get some inflation prints in the next couple of months that are dramatically lower, that will turn around the market in the second half of the year, and we'll be off to the races. If not, we'll continue to have this choppiness.

Software for engineers and architects. Early in its transition to a subscription model. Nichey product. Will live and die with the economy. Very high margins, will generate lots of free cashflow.

Still a buyer. Subscription software for real estate data, plus platforms for advertising vacancies. Homes.com will soon launch to compete with Zillow, etc. in NA and globally. This launch will hurt earnings a bit, but they have money in the bank from other projects. Higher interest rates shouldn't hurt too much.

REITs. In a weird spot. Either you're worried about a recession, or you're worried about rising interest rates. Probably don't do well in a rising interest rate environment. Should hold their own if we fall into a recessionary environment. He prefers names like GRT.UN, as industrial REITs are a great place to be.

Can't go too far wrong as an income play. Revenue growth has been pretty good. Canada's doing great, especially out West where Telus is. Doesn't like the huge capex fibre spend. Looks like being free cashflow positive starting later this year and for the rest of the decade. Expect significant dividend growth.

Bullish on Canadian banks, attractive at 10x earnings. Exceptional upside to higher interest rates, despite pressure on loans and housing. Will face issues in a slower economy. In the meantime, Canadian economy is rolling along. Good balance sheets and attractive dividends.

Hasn't done well. Not attracted to it. Bloated balance sheet. You have to hope it takes maket share from others. If you want the dividend and think it's safe, you could nibble.

TSX has been rocking and rolling. Good for dividend and defensive portfolios, but not his best idea. He's not a fan of paying high multiples for a low-growth businesses just because others are nervous.

Owns one of the only refineries in Canada, a jewel of an asset. Worth in excess of $50 a share. Market's concernced about how it's funding acquisitions. In the meantime, gasoline demand is strong. Attractive here.

(A Top Pick Jul 19/21, Up 26%) He's still buying. Reopening is happening. Anticipates record year, despite shutdowns in Asia. Profits come from the stadium and merchandise.

(A Top Pick Jul 19/21, Down 20%) Proxy for the stock market. Manages 10T in assets, diversified. Should earn over $40 EPS this year. Just raised dividend. A good way to be long-term bullish on the market and financial assets.

(A Top Pick Jul 19/21, Down 28%) Hurt by rising interest rates. Market shoots first, asks questions later. Sells to contractors and DIY'ers. Opening lots of stores over next 5 years. Structural tailwinds. Heavy stuff you can't buy off AMZN.

Warned yesterday on earnings. With higher rates, fewer bonds are being issued, so fewer credit ratings needed. Eventually, bonds have to be issued. A cyclical issue, nothing structurally wrong. Trades at 25x earnings. Don't miss a chance to buy one of the world's great businesses at a pretty attractive multiple.