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Stock Opinions by Barry Schwartz

COMMENT
Tariff deadline and market moves.

It's very interesting. The CAD fell hard on Friday, bounced back a bit today. He's shocked that the TSX did a lot better then the US market in February. If you were worried about the world ending tomorrow, why would that be?

He thinks the market's unsure whether these tariffs are going to happen. If you told him how long they're going to be in place, how bad they're going to be, and who's going to be most affected, he could tell you what playbook to follow. But he doesn't know those things, so he's not going to take any action.

We should find out later today what the impacts are going to be. He tells his clients that you have to be nervous every day when Donald Trump is president, but you don't have to react.

COMMENT
What to watch for if tariffs are imposed.

He'll watch the market reaction, seeing which companies and sectors will be most impacted. When Trump first announced tariffs for March, and then moved it to April, the biggest TSX losers were companies like BBD.B, MG, railroads, and oil/gas. Those stocks haven't recovered well. One of his Top Picks from last time has done really poorly because of tariff worries.

No company wants to invest any $$ right now, do M&A, or spend a bunch of money until there's clarity. The uncertainty has roiled the market and you can see it in the stock market performance for February.

COMMENT
Temper your expectations for 2025.

No one has any idea what the stock market's going to do in the short term or the long term. The last 2 years for clients and for the S&P 500 have been spectacular. Over the last 5 years, the S&P has compounded 17% and that's not normal. No one should expect that going forward. The next 5 years has to be more muted.

He's telling clients that the S&P 500 does about 9.5% over the long term, and that should be your expectation. Hopefully, great stock-picking can beat that.

WATCH

Stock didn't perform the way he wanted it to, he sold. Fundamentals weren't going in the right direction. Warned on earnings many times. Bought back stock with debt. Cashflow not strong. Stock's fallen a lot, could be interesting to a new buyer, as he's bullish on the stock and on rails long term.

WATCH

Owned this years ago and should have hung on. Looking to get back into rails (possibly this name), hoping for a correction because of tariffs, but the market's too smart.

BUY

Oil prices have come off due to Russia-Ukraine war and inflation. Owns it mainly for income, grows its dividend and that will continue. If you tell him what oil prices will do, he can tell you what this stock will do. Loves the deals it's made. Balance sheet in great shape.

COMMENT

Was the ugly stepchild but improved operations dramatically, and that's why it's outperformed CNQ.

DON'T BUY

25% tariffs on auto parts would be terrible for this name, life-changing. Valuation very attractive. Always very profitable, great management. Capital intensive and low ROIC, so he doesn't like this type of business.

BUY

The best. Still his choice today. Learn this lesson from him: stay with the best-run business in the industry, management that has the most skin in the game and knows how to create value. Winners keep on winning. 

BUY

Quality management lets you hold a name for a very long time. New chairman turned around DPZ, hired to do the same here. Hasn't yet happened, spending lots to remodel Burger Kings. Tim's and Popeye's doing well. Tough macro. Cheapest in the restaurant space.

DON'T BUY

Volatile recently with NVDA's results and chip worries. A bet on AI. Spectacular results. Growing quickly, reasonable valuation. He'd prefer a higher-quality US name and less of a derivative play.

BUY
Which Mag 7's will weather current market adversity?

The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China. 

Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.

BUY
Which Mag 7's will weather current market adversity?

The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China. 

Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.

BUY
Which Mag 7's will weather current market adversity?

The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China. 

Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.

BUY
Which Mag 7's will weather current market adversity?

The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China. 

Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.

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