CIO & Portfolio Manager at Baskin Wealth Management
Member since: Sep '09 · 2876 Opinions
It's very interesting. The CAD fell hard on Friday, bounced back a bit today. He's shocked that the TSX did a lot better then the US market in February. If you were worried about the world ending tomorrow, why would that be?
He thinks the market's unsure whether these tariffs are going to happen. If you told him how long they're going to be in place, how bad they're going to be, and who's going to be most affected, he could tell you what playbook to follow. But he doesn't know those things, so he's not going to take any action.
We should find out later today what the impacts are going to be. He tells his clients that you have to be nervous every day when Donald Trump is president, but you don't have to react.
He'll watch the market reaction, seeing which companies and sectors will be most impacted. When Trump first announced tariffs for March, and then moved it to April, the biggest TSX losers were companies like BBD.B, MG, railroads, and oil/gas. Those stocks haven't recovered well. One of his Top Picks from last time has done really poorly because of tariff worries.
No company wants to invest any $$ right now, do M&A, or spend a bunch of money until there's clarity. The uncertainty has roiled the market and you can see it in the stock market performance for February.
No one has any idea what the stock market's going to do in the short term or the long term. The last 2 years for clients and for the S&P 500 have been spectacular. Over the last 5 years, the S&P has compounded 17% and that's not normal. No one should expect that going forward. The next 5 years has to be more muted.
He's telling clients that the S&P 500 does about 9.5% over the long term, and that should be your expectation. Hopefully, great stock-picking can beat that.
The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China.
Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.
The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China.
Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.
The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China.
Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.
The ones that are nice to King Trump. He'd hope that TSLA and AAPL would escape additional tariffs on China.
Except for TSLA, the other Mag 6 have come down to very reasonable valuations. For example, AMZN's trading at a discount to WMT, which makes no sense. GOOG is trading at 19x earnings. Thinks AAPL growth will be double digit. This is your chance to buy quality companies at reasonable valuations. See his Top Picks.