Parkland Fuel Corp (PKI-T)

Bowing to pressure, the CEO has stepped down, adding to uncertainty. The company also lowered guidance, which is not overly surprising, really, considering the economic situation unfolding. The CEO change should appease Simpson and other funds somewhat, but likely only a bit. There is still a strategic review ongoing. Certainly a sale is one possibility. There are a lot of moving parts here. The stock has held up well, likely due to speculation on its future. We would not see it as a great purchase right now, as it would essentially be a 'bet' on a takeover in a very uncertain market, and not really our type of play. 
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The controlling shareholder wants to sell the gas stations and keep the refineries where the margins are higher and sit on lots of real estate. He doesn't own the shares, but the bonds which pay 6% during falling interest rates. Not investment-grade bonds, so the leverage is high.

A big shareholder is agitating for change, wanting management to enhance value. World-class assets. It's cheap.  Refining margins have been coming in and general malaise in economy may explain share price. Very undervalued and value will be realized somehow. Debt, but a lot of FCF. Yield is 3.96%.

Should work regardless of tariffs. It's being pushed to unlock value. A few $$ to be earned from low-hanging fruit. Market sees EPS growing 15% over next 2 years, trading at 9x. Idiosyncratic name, not tethered to news headlines, with a nice dividend. Yield is 3.8%.

(Note the short timeframe.) Trying to find a floor here. Part of his broader energy call.

Sounds counterintuitive, but WFG and trees are going to be beneficiaries. US still needs them, just going to pay higher prices.

GRT.UN is a good name. PKI works well here. Materials sector, with a name like NTR. 

There's even a part of the TSX that does well with a falling CAD, as earnings get amplified.

He has owned it. It's volatile, making tops and bottoms with breakdowns. It's now basing, which is good; maybe this will break above $36. Wait and see.

Correction for most of this year, gave back over half of its previous move and that's pretty significant. Started to pick up in last week or so, looks as though it wants to break out of a downtrend. Ideally, want to see it get above $40.

It is an OK company with cash flow but has not received respect. It has tried to improve its operations and cut costs but it is a cyclical business. It is quite leveraged.

Owns in balanced income fund, hasn't worked this year. Down 20% before dividends, not great. Volatile fuel prices, consumer not spending as much. Dividend grower for many years. Management in fight with major shareholder. Ridiculously cheap valuation, share price should have found a floor. Could be subject of an acquisition.

Likes energy, and this is showing signs of improvement. Moved above 50-day MA for the first time since start of the year. Likes the setup, and seems to be turning around technically. If he's correct about our place in the cycle, this name should work at least till the end of the year and likely into the start of next. Yield is 3.91%.

Hands down, slam dunk in favour of ATD. Bigger and better. Scale is a significant advantage, especially on sale of fuel. Better at merchandising. More diverse global footprint. Amazing serial acquirer. Hunting big game with bid for 7-Eleven.

PKI has an activist investor rattling its cage for some time, with no resolution in sight. Activists usually get involved when assets are being mismanaged or under-managed, or management team's off course. Not earning same profits as ATD, despite similar end-markets.

The dividend is safe but their long-term growth is a question mark.

Not a baby Couche-Tard, as PKI depends more on fuel. Internal struggle between owners. If you don't own, buy ATD instead on a pullback. If you do own, sit tight and wait for drama to play out. Not worth the risk.

Smaller than ATD, but they have refining capacity to make it interesting, so they can send fuel to their locations. He has preferred PKI over ATD, but got out after the company replaced some executives with talk of M&A. He's watching it.