Mike Vinokur
Partner and portfolio manager at MV Wealth Partners
Member since: Nov '23 · 206 Opinions
Rating Card
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| 0 | 12 22.22% | 15 27.78% | 9 16.67% | 15 27.78% | 3 5.56% | ||
| 1 Month | 0 | 1 4.17% | 8 33.33% | 7 29.17% | 8 33.33% | 0 0.00% | |
| 6 Months | 0 | 5 27.78% | 6 33.33% | 1 5.56% | 4 22.22% | 2 11.11% | |
| 12 Months | 0 | 6 50.00% | 1 8.33% | 1 8.33% | 3 25.00% | 1 8.33% |
Stock Opinions by Mike Vinokur
His team thinks so. An object in motion tends to stay in motion until it doesn't.
There's a lot of flow coming into the market. Part of that may be because a lot of market participants don't want to be in the bond market -- returns are low, perhaps not better than inflation, and could be facing a loss if interest rates do go up. Part of it could be FOMO, because the last 2 years have been great, and now European and Canadian markets are really shining. Third thing is margin debt; in the US, it's almost back to record levels seen in 2021 before the huge S&P correction from 4800 to below 4000.
He's cautiously optimistic. Short term, markets may need a bit of a pullback. We have PCE numbers coming out tomorrow in the US. Next Friday, September 5, we have the labour report for August and we'll see how the market reacts. Then we're back into earnings season in October.
We need to make a distinction, because there are some great bargains in that sector. NVDA is the poster child; it's gone up a lot, and its valuation is probably 40x forward PE. That's quite expensive, unless you believe that they can maintain the treadmill of that kind of growth. He's not saying the growth is over, just that maybe the growth slows down from here. Perhaps the valuation on this type of name has to stay here while earnings catch up, or it has to come down a little bit.
Doesn't mean that capital can't rotate into other parts of the AI growth market, or even into NVDA's competitors which have lower multiples. See his Top Picks.
The poster child. Gone up a lot, and its valuation is probably 40x forward PE. Quite expensive, unless you believe that it can maintain the treadmill of that kind of growth. He's not saying the growth is over, just that maybe the growth slows down from here. Perhaps the valuation has to stay here while earnings catch up, or it has to come down a little bit.
See his Top Picks.
The proposed acquisition may have been a bit aggressive. May have felt a big acquisition was needed to move the needle. Very well run. May not be a lot of big purchases left in the space unless you overpay or take on a lot of debt. Without acquisitions and integration, may not be that much room for earnings growth.
Good operator, good job navigating mortgage market. Concerned we're still in midst of credit cycle in Canada. Bulk of business is residential, and this will be impacted by current state of the condo market and slowdown in both housing and economy. Unlike the 6 big banks, not sure it's diversified enough to weather the storm.
Wait for better entry point or for a point further along the curve of the credit cycle.
Still likes it. Free cashflow should keep escalating. Huge pipeline of acquisitions. Especially likes that it generates enough FCF to grow organically without relying on capital markets. Good valuation. Initiated dividend. Insiders own a reasonably big chunk.
Pretty recession-resistant. Canada Dental Care Plan should stabilize dental office earnings.
Iconic brand, as well as scale and efficiency. You could say it's quite expensive. On the other hand, what a moat. Could very well keep chugging along without having its multiple fall. Very profitable, lots of FCF to buy back shares or whatever. Nearest competitor is TGT, which is not doing well. Perhaps TGT's loss is WMT's gain.
Sold last year, mainly because Trump administration announced seemingly negative measures toward HMO's in general and specifically ones with pharmacy benefits managers. Common theme in the space is that margins are compressing. Overhang will go on for a few more quarters.
On top of medical loss ratio issue, now being investigated by DOJ on billing practices. Suspects this will be like a WFC scenario -- clouds will hang over the name and will take a long time to clear. EPS revised down from $25 to $16, so who knows what they'll actually be by year's end.
Likes HMOs in general as a business that reprices YOY. If you're a very long-term investor and you want to take a stab, it's not going away anytime soon. But expect a bumpy ride for the next 1-6 quarters.
He's down on this name for the reasons that are hitting the space as a whole such as MLRs creeping up, guidance being pulled back, and Trump administration policies. We're in a portion of the cycle where earnings aren't going to come back quickly. Hold off for now with new $$; revisit in 2026.
Rails are extremely capital-intensive businesses. Always lots of maintenance capex on the network and its equipment. Over many years, does generate FCF but it's not huge. Recession resistant. Duopoly. Not going away. Not the type of business or valuation (too high) his team goes for. Small dividend.
