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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)


Stock Opinions by Mike Vinokur, CFA, CMT, and CFP

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COMMENT

Usually you see a blip in August, post-earnings until the traders come back from holidays to break the quiet, or the euphoria over the next earnings. Something somewhere pops out to make the markets dive 3-5%. He expects this bull run to continue. Earnings on strong and the economy is strong. Canada is exiting a technical recession and the CUSMA deal is unsigned. Unemployment is steady and job growth is okay and the consumer is spending, especially the rich. Unfortunately, war is good for the part of the economy producing the equipment.

COMMENT
Canadian banks to correct?

Yes, the PEs are very high and the dividends are very low historically. Any blip in the economy or credit could mean earnings will take a beating. There's little margin of safety on the earnings. Take profits on the banks if you're collecting a huge profit. He doesn't own the Canadian banks now. How much can earnings growth in this Canadian economy?

WEAK BUY

They transition from hardware to services and software. The stock ran up on the hype leading the earnings, but then that enthusiasm vanished. Any revenue miss impacts earnings and sentiment. IBM is interesting in the long term, but IBM has been considered dead money in the past. You get a decent dividend and management is good.

DON'T BUY

Amazing management. The only issue is that POU is mostly natural gas which is landlocked in Canada. Nat gas prices in Canada are weak. Is not convinced he'd own a lot of nat gas in Canada in this part of the cycle.

DON'T BUY

It's a tough one. Have little cash flow per share. Valuation is not low. Sales are weak. The excitement is gone. In a competitive space. The balance sheet is okay, not amazing.

BUY

Managers repositioned the company. A third of revenues are from Europe, where they have big nat gas problems. They have successful discoveries in Germany with smaller productions in France, Ireland and Australia. They're getting huge premiums on nat gas and oil to bolster cash flow. They just repaid a lot of debt. They need to executing their plan with success in Germany, and higher North America nat gas prices--both factors will make VET soar.

DON'T BUY

Great at containing costs. They operate on tiny margins, though. They distribute medicine, which is essential and a huge market in the US. The PE isn't low enough, around 19-20x PE. A wondferul business.

DON'T BUY

Even after the dividend cut, it still pays 6% which is sustainable. If their capex spending is over, they can pay down some debt and sell non-core assets. Maybe two years out, there will be a re-valuation. Otherwise, you have to be a long-term holder of this.

BUY

They now own all of MLSE, which holds a lot of value that the market doesn't give them credit for. The dividend is stable and they have a lot of free cash flow.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 25/25, Up 70%)

He likes their cross-border business. Steel tariffs were a heated topic, but he felt RUS was protected from them because they have distribution in the U.S. as well as in Canada. They bought a major company to bolster their US operation. He sold his holding and misses out some of this run.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 25/25, Up 619%)

He sold very early. He liked the management, but had no clue how acute the shortages were in AI. He took profits, and MU kept rallying. Happy to take profits, though.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 25/25, Down 61%)

New management shocked the market in clearing the decks in what the market should expect in earnings. They have debt. He expected higher growth. He's sitting with a loss. The PE is very cheap. They still have many levers to pull to raise profits.

HOLD

Not a value, but growth stock. He's down 8% on it. They have a huge backlog, but what happens when the backlog ends? It's in a growth industry. Likes management. Could be interesting mid- or long-term.

BUY

A large position for him. Loves manager. They had a great quarter. Likes the dividend and growth strategy. It depends on your view of the oil prices in the future. WCP is great to own throughout the cycle. In the late-2020's oil prices could go a lot higher than today.

DON'T BUY

He gave up and sold it a year or so ago. Their drugs face a patent cliff. Developing drugs is risky and expensive. They have a lot of recurring revenue and will likely develop a blockbuster drug, but will it cover the patent cliff? They carry lots of debt from buying companies constantly (they have to).

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