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Portfolio Manager at Propellus Wealth Partners/iA Private Wealth
Member since: Nov '23 · 272 Opinions
Yes, it absolutely does make him feel better about the forward outlook on the economy. In NA especially, the consumer's a big part of the economy. Yes, there's a lot of capex spending through AI and construction projects. But you need the consumer to feel good enough to spend.
Lots of people have been talking about this K-shaped economy, where 10% of the population is doing something like 50% of the spending. But with those kinds of job numbers, you can argue that the 10% still feels pretty good. We have to keep monitoring that 10%, and the other 90%, to see how they feel about job prospects, keeping up with inflation, and whether they can continue spending on their merry way.
Two key components. One is valuation, and one is sentiment. Sentiment just doesn't want to give up. Part of the reason shows up when you look at the bond market -- it hasn't been a great place to be over the last 2-4 years, but the stock market has.
Some may be saying that if inflation keeps rearing its ugly head, and central bankers actually increase rates, that's going to hit my bond portfolio. I'm already only making a 3-4% yield, and now may be taking a capital hit. I might as well go into growth assets -- earnings and operating margins keep going up, unemployment rate is low, governments keep spending. (He hates to say this, but the war is actually good for the economy.)
People are saying this has been the best game in town, so why stop? Especially when they don't see any clouds forming.
With this deal, trying to replicate what a lot of other utilities in Canada have done ( go to the US and make an acquisition). Arguably, more growth in US economy, and with it comes power demand. Very well run.
Concerned that stock trading below issue price of bought deal offering. Utilities have been waffling, as they're interest-rate sensitive. Possibly, enough excitement at this time of AI power demand to reverse stock price. No rush to buy, even for a long-term investor. Watch to see how things settle out with the deal before entering a position.
Lots of respect for Eric Nuttall. This is a call on oil and, to some extent, natural gas. If the conflict were to end tomorrow, we have to distinguish what the financial markets will do from what the physical markets will do. There's a big difference.
There are a lot of financial players in the futures market, and they trade paper for barrels they don't even own. And then they go short. It has nothing to do with the actual physical demand for oil/gas. So a lot of players out there are probably counting on additional blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and making a financial bet that the price will go up. If they're wrong, they'll likely have to offset those bets. That could take the price of the financial contracts much lower than the actual physical demand. You won't see that on your screen, because we typically track the financial market, not the physical exchange point-to-point of the commodity.
Right now, we're generally entering a period of seasonal weakness for commodities. That's in a typical year. This year is nothing close.
If there's a resolution to the Iran conflict, we could see a massive correction on fears that there will be a glut. That will have nothing to do with valuations on great companies with great reserves in the ground, and more to do with a gut reaction that the play is over.
If you're a very long-term investor (say, out to 2030), stick with it. Energy will probably be a great place to be. However, he can't guarantee there won't be a violent 30-40% correction in the interim. Know what you own and what kind of investor you are.
He bought recently at under $2500, now 20% higher. Still cheap. Once you become this big, can you keep recycling capital fast enough? Generates a ton of free cash. Don't chase here. He's not adding now. If you're a long-term holder, a pullback may be your opportunity.
SaaSpocalypse was blown way out of proportion. If I'm a business that needs to protect client data, I'm sticking with the professionals. But AI tools will help companies like this by employing fewer coders/engineers and increasing productivity.
Telus is paying out all of its FCF, and maybe then some, in dividends. You have to be OK with that. And who knows whether the new CEO will cut that dividend?
Both have come down a lot. You could make the case to buy these beaten-down companies to get the yield, and that's not a terrible idea. For the very long term, at these valuations, probably not much downside. Question is: How much upside? If inflation does come down and central banks start lowering rates again, companies like these may get a bid.
Prefers, and owns, RCI.B.
Telus is paying out all of its FCF, and maybe then some, in dividends. You have to be OK with that. And who knows whether the new CEO will cut that dividend?
Both have come down a lot. You could make the case to buy these beaten-down companies to get the yield, and that's not a terrible idea. For the very long term, at these valuations, probably not much downside. Question is: How much upside? If inflation does come down and central banks start lowering rates again, companies like these may get a bid.
Prefers, and owns, RCI.B.