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Stock Opinions by Teal Linde

COMMENT
There are many issues with the market but the one getting the most attention is inflation. It is the most in 40 years creating the fear of a deep recession since the Fed. will raise rates aggressively. Fears are slightly overblown especially on the inflation front. Half of the CPI is composed of three major parts: shelter, energy and food. House prices, 1/3 of the CPI, have peaked and are turning down. Energy is up by 40%. It tends to shoot up right away with Geo-political situations and then not go much higher. Food prices are related to energy prices so if energy prices go down so do food prices.. The worst of the price increases are probably behind us. Also prices don't have to go down for inflation to go down. If they stay where they are, inflation will come down but it takes time. Growth stocks are way down but in many cases the fundamentals are the same or better so there are opportunities. However stay away from non-profitable tech companies that were high flyers and peaked last year.
Unknown
BUY
A great long term investment with annualized compound returns over 20%. Expect a 20% growth rate each year for the next five years. It will spin off the asset management business and become two separate companies. One will be an income stock and the second will re-invest capital and aim for a 15% return over the long run. Both are good and he will own both.
management / diversified
WAIT
A pipeline that delivered on time and on budget. Also acquired a refinery but the stock hasn't moved so it is at an attractive valuation. It is bringing on-stream a renewable diesel facility next year with 3000 barrels a day production. The B.C. government will cover costs for about half.
0
Unspecified
It is attractive on a valuation basis at 13/14 X earnings. It has a structural challenge since it is a general type company that covers many things. Times have changed. Pure specialty companies in cloud technology and open source technology are chipping away at one stop for everything companies like Cisco.
electrical / electronic
VAGUE
It has had issues in the news that have kept the stock price inexpensive - now undervalued. It is spending a lot of money on the Metaverse. He is not adding because he is unsure of the upside. Advertising revenue is very important so limited growth ahead. Also limited because of size.
0
COMMENT
Question was on a dividend bonanza. TD has the most excess capital of all banks and owns a large position in Charles Schwab corporation. Dividends should increase incrementally so no dividend bonanza since it doesn't want to have to cut back on a dividend at some point.
banks
WAIT
A remarkable company. It is already there in terms of autonomous driving and AI unlike some other semi-conductor companies. The GPU processor can do multiple tasks at one time unlike the CPU processor. It is down 50% with the sell-off of semi stocks. He is considering acquiring at a decent price and is waiting for semis to bottom out.
computer software / processing
DON'T BUY
It is moving in the EV and alternative energy direction. Stock has come off and is at 5 or 6X earnings which is the historical average. Has started delivering their electric pickup truck which costs 20% less to produce than the Tesla Model 3. Not keen on auto stocks since sales tend to be quite flat overall and therefore have little growth. On the other hand auto parts suppliers are growing. e.g. Linamar at 25%
Automotive
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 17/21, Up 28%) It should be higher and has had to fight against the trend from other retailers. Its recent results were great. It has great potential - expect 20% growth. Interesting to note that it has three stores (different labels) in a Vancouver mall. 23/24X earnings. Owns a good size position - otherwise would buy more.
specialty stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 17/21, Down 36%) It did not have good quarterly results. Production was lighter than expected but this should be temporary in nature. There are also cost concerns since other companies (two in particular) are showing big cost over-runs with inflation. However Equinox announced its capital expenditure after inflation had already started to appear so it is already factored in. There is insider buying by the CEO, President, COO and Investor Relations.
Mining
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 17/21, Up 247%) There is still more upside. It is not even at a three year high but oil and gas are at multi year highs. He hasn't sold any.
oil / gas
Unspecified
It has had a great run. It has good recurring revenue and doesn't rely on advertising. Its earnings multiples are in mid 20's but price replies on growth so not sure of future price. Multiples are shrinking.
computer software / processing
BUY
It is a natural gas producer in Alberta which has a much improved oil and gas industry. It is attractively priced along with Pembina. If looking for a smaller company in the oil and gas field Keyera is good.
oil / gas
WATCH
It has 75 000 customers which is only 10% penetration of the software business. It also wants to increase its contact (has 40% right now) with more of the Global 10 000 companies. Its software offering is broader. Is an aquisitor. Would seriously consider buying. Regarding interest rates, he feels that the effect of rising rates is overblown. Even at 2, 3 or 4% rates are still at historical lows. These rates were normal in the late 1990's (4 1/2%) but the stock market was booming and was at a much higher valuation.
computer software / processing
DON'T BUY
With lumber companies and other commodity related companies it is better to trade them rather than hold for the long term. He sold last year in the 30 dollar plus range after buying at $6.50 a couple of years ago. Lumbar prices have peaked with house prices so be cautious.
west coast forestry
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