Teal Linde
Portfolio Manager & Publisher, Linde Equity Report at Linde Equity Report
Member since: Feb '14 · 1204 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.16 | 153 30.42% | 104 20.68% | 64 12.72% | 105 20.87% | 77 15.31% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.22 | 10 7.75% | 45 34.88% | 34 26.36% | 36 27.91% | 4 3.10% | |
| 6 Months | 4.01 | 29 24.37% | 26 21.85% | 17 14.29% | 28 23.53% | 19 15.97% | |
| 12 Months | 4.31 | 42 38.18% | 15 13.64% | 8 7.27% | 21 19.09% | 24 21.82% | |
| 2 Years | 4.28 | 44 48.35% | 14 15.38% | 4 4.40% | 10 10.99% | 19 20.88% | |
| 5 Years | 3.96 | 28 51.85% | 4 7.41% | 1 1.85% | 10 18.52% | 11 20.37% |
Stock Opinions by Teal Linde
The U.S. market is overcrowded. Going back to 1968 there have been 3 major peaks in the U.S. market of high household ownership of stocks. 1968 saw 28% household ownership, 2000 saw 25%. In both cases they were followed by a 50% drop. Now the household ownership is 30% compounded with foreign ownership of U.S. stocks being more than the previous two times, although this year there has been somewhat of an exodus to other markets. When the S&P 500 reaches this level the following historical return is close to 0%. However U.S. tech stocks have a greater portion of the market now so this pattern may not repeat. This all means investors should be more vigilant and make sure the fundamentals justify what they own.
It is involved in private lending. It is a newer company and its valuation is lower than its peers and it is growing faster. It has pulled back with the other alternative investment managers. It is also somewhat different from the others since it has a high proportion of permanent capital with more predictable returns. 25% earnings growth is predicted for this year and 20%per year over the next 5 years. Even a little less growth would still be good.
There are concerns it might be too diluted if the acquisition goes through. However the acquisition would be accretive and the 7-11 stores could become more profitable, as well as supplying more food for ATD's stores. It is still an uphill battle and if it doesn't go through it would allow ATD to concentrate more on organic growth.
It is in its third year (of three years) of paying back $600 million in debt. It still has $158 million to pay back in the second, third and fourth quarters this year. Oil prices are off but management still thinks they can do it with flexibility in capital spending and a supportive banking syndicate. The CEO and CFO collectively bought $250 000 of stock recently. This could be significant since there has generally not been much insider buying in the last few months since the April sell-off. If the debt is paid off they will have all this free cash flow for other purposes including re-instating the dividend, which would lead to a stock price increase,
One year ago it was trading at a discount to NAV and has ownership in 4 publicly traded subsidiaries. The prior 10 year return to shareholders was 15% and you can expect the core distribution earnings to be about 17%. It is fine to start accumulating for the long term or you could wait for a pullback. It is a long term success story.
It is well managed but never got much respect from the market. He sold because the company was doing well last year but the stock didn't move much. He is not sure about tariff effects. He has moved on to BYD and Uber. BYD has dominance in the electric vehicle market. Its EV can get a 400 kilometre charge in 5 minutes.
It is a trading opportunity and not a long term hold. There is still upside and there has been insider buying. It has announced an issuer bid. 18% of shares have been bought and cancelled in a year so revenue per share is going up. It is trading at a discount to its American peers and to its historical valuation.
