Teal Linde

The US election (tomorrow) is too close to call. Since 1952, the average quarterly return has been 2.2%, and Q4 in an election year gains 4.0%. More of that gain follows the vote. However, the year after the election under the Democrats returns 16.5%, and less than 1% under the Republicans. That said, 2017 was a strong year. US Q3 results are strong, but valuations are getting high. Warren Buffett is reducing his stake in stocks like Apple and raising record levels of cash--are we in a toppy market? He himself is not raising cash, because inflation is being tamed and the worst is behind us. Growth lies ahead, but avoid overvalued stocks. There's a rotation out of mega-caps, including tech, and into smaller caps, which is why he likes mid-caps (US$5 billion-up, and C$1 billion-up). Small caps are riskier and few do well.

Benefits from recent interest rate cuts, but note that long-term rates are actually rising and this will limit dividend stocks like this. Why? Concerns of inflation returning, or signs of a strong economy coming, but also there could be a debt-maturing wall coming. There's $300 trillion of debt around the world. Fortis pays a 4% dividend, but doesn't grow much. So, considering interest rates ahead, he may exit this at the end of 2025.

Will hold it. ESI is a play on them lowering their $600 million of debt, and they are on target.

The sell-off is overdone. They already pay 8%, so do they need to grow that dividend? Pausing the growth is prudent. Also, divesting from major league sports and investing in fibre makes sense (most of that sports money will pay for the fibre company). No, BCE is not headed for disaster.

Current owners should own, and those who don't should pick up some shares now. Pays an attractive 5.2% dividend yield, and will offer some share appreciation over time as this recovers.

After going nowhere for 10 years, MFC broke out. Are doing very well in Asia and wealth management. If they come close to hit their targets, there has room to run, though a pause in the stock may be due.

They guide 4-6% EPS growth from 2023-26, and 3% distributed cash flow, then 5% growth rate across the board after 2026. It's modest growth near-term, but they benefit from falling rates. Their PE is above 19x.  Natural gas pipelines offer more growth.

The new managers look intriguing after improving operations and the balance sheet as they lower high debt levels. Business sales are strong. So they plan to diversify away from business jets into after-market services. But BBD is so volatile. Buy on a downswing.

There's still upside. CIGI has benefited from rate cuts, since CIGI is in real estate. Peer CBRE announced strong results two weeks including double-digit revenue growth. There seems to be pent-up demand in the market. They use economic downturns not only to buy companies, but hire top talent. They have a record number of commercial RE brokers and agents.

It's stable. Good managers. Net interest margins are lighter than their peers, but this is offset by a lower net charge-off ratio, reflecting a high quality loan book. So they can leverage their balance sheet to boost earnings and ROE. Last year's selloff was irrational, so RY stock was ripe for a bounce-back. But shares are high now and he'd look elsewhere. $150 is a good entry point. It's not overvalued at 14x forward, though it's high and pricing in future upside. Shares are due for a breather.

US airline passengers volumes have finally returned to pre-Covid levels (vs. 16 months after 9/11, and 19 months after the 2008 crisis). UAL just announced a beat and strong guidance; UAL said the price wars are over, so this has lifted the entire airline industry. DAL just announced 7 new destinations to Europe and increases flights on some routes, like Atlanta to Barcelona.

Buy on a serious pullback. They had 19% growth in AWS as well as ads. They can deliver prescription drugs within a day to half the US. 

Well-run and solid. Have deep inventory and they distribute to different markets and are profitable. The commodity price can weaken, but the stock can hang on, but its production growth rate is slowing down.

The chart has been steady despite plunges in the timber price. Impressive. But he wouldn't enter this now.

Costco trades at 50x PE vs. DOL's 35x, already high as its growth rate slows. DOL is looking overseas to Latin America to expand, which is interesting; there's lots of room to expand.