David DriscollUnion Pacific CorpUNPWEAK BUYJan 23, 2026
Right now the US economy is doing better, so this stock's started to pick up again from April lows. But not shooting the lights out. This rail hauls agricultural, auto, and chemical products.
Biggest challenge is what are these railroads carrying? CNR has suffered in Canada because it's one of the largest shippers of vehicles, and tariffs are causing issues. Economy will drive how well the rails do. They've been going sideways, and there's no catalyst right now. If you want to buy now, you'll need to be patient.
A more attractive choice than CNR, if you don't mind expanding beyond the Canadian sandbox. Purchase of NSC makes it really interesting, merging into a trans-continental railroad with lots of cost savings and synergies. Good upside if the merger goes through.
In process of buying a competitor and creating the first transcontinental railroad. A once-in-a-generation opportunity if they can get it right. Better opportunity than CNR for you to expand your portfolio beyond Canada.
Operating income in Q4 +5% to $2.5 billion. Was held back by tariff talks; tariffs will hurt, but they have room to move with better volume and pricing. He targets $275.
His concern is its 18x forward PE. A railroad stock can grow only so much more than GDP. Pricing power is limited. He needs to see earnings outperform.
Been on a downtrend, though fairly priced. Earnings need to beat for shares to also rise. Trades at 18x forward PE and a PEG ratio of 1.7. A tailwind is US capex spending and all those materials that need transporting, like steel.
UNP is Warren Buffet's 2nd favorite railroad to own (he owns BNSF). It has paid its dividend for 125 consecutive years. It is prudently using some cash reserves to aggressively retire debt and buy back shares. It trades at 9x earnings and supports a ROE of 45%. The dividend is backed by a payout ratio of 50% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $207, looking to achieve $268 -- upside potential over 17%. Yield 2.2%
Right now the US economy is doing better, so this stock's started to pick up again from April lows. But not shooting the lights out. This rail hauls agricultural, auto, and chemical products.
Biggest challenge is what are these railroads carrying? CNR has suffered in Canada because it's one of the largest shippers of vehicles, and tariffs are causing issues. Economy will drive how well the rails do. They've been going sideways, and there's no catalyst right now. If you want to buy now, you'll need to be patient.