President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3665 Opinions
The US market is focused on the first cut expected from the the US Fed, probably not this month, but nearly 100% likely in September. Normally, the first leads to a series of cuts, but these are strange times. There's the US election, which nobody can predict. The polls point to Trump winning, but anything can happen, like the October Surprise. Small-caps do better under lower rates are domestically based (American). Trump could impose a dovish Fed Chair to lower rates, but with more tariffs, inflation will rise and so will longer rates and steepen the yield curve, which will benefit banks.
It's a tough space. We exited this years ago. Buying Cooper Tire 6-8 years ago, but didn't enhance business. The raw material of tires (rubber) is volatile, so this sector is unpredictable. GT is not managed well.
Likely, their strength won't last that long, because competition will emerge. For now, NVDA is cooking, doing very well. You can hold this, but don't bet the farm on it. A very good company that's growing into its valuation. Be careful.
Solid. It's pure defence and aerospace (i.e. jet engines), a good combination. Good valuation. They hit a problem with contaminants in engine parts about 18 months ago, which cost them, but the street has since regained confidence in them. He bought more shares around $85, which has paid off.
Owns Chevron instead, but both companies are nearly the same. Pays a good 4% dividend, backed by strong cash flow. An excellent company.
Recently, they're turning around. Their legacy products have been upgraded which has helped spiked margins and revenue growth as seen in the last quarter. Also, they're in a sector that is now loved. But Oracle faces a lot of competition and their PE in the low-20's. Look elsewhere.
There's exuberance on today's results. BAC is set up for success. Capital markets will benefit from more activity, and are set up for a steepening yield curve if Trump is president (and he imposes tarfiffs which raises inflation). Also, they're in strong financial shape
Beware of companies closing stores and calling that successfully. Closing stores is never good. This whole space has been challenged. He had a poor experience holding the peer, CVS. WBA was just kicked out of an index.
Interest rates are dropping but the US consumer is weakening, conflicting trends. This and Lowe's have done okay in recent weeks only because rates are starting to drop and this won't return them to glory days. Wait and see if there's a recession around the corner, then maybe buy them as an early-cycle stock. He likes the homebuilders though.
He bought this in 2006 and it's been a super compounder since. But he's trimmed this 7-8 times to manage his portfolio, and risk management is crucial.
Oil prices have done well, but it's a least-loved rally. The oil companies haven't done that well. CVX is held down by their purchase of Hess. The market was split on this, though he thinks it helps CVX long term. At some point, energy will do well. Timing is key in stock-buying. Stay with CVX.
The best bank in the world. They continually do well and exceed expectations. A great CEO. But at 2x book now, it's not cheap, though trading at only 11.5x PE. Not a screaming buy, but good enough given the quality of the bank.
Surprised it hasn't done well, because gas prices are up. WEX provides a platform for trucking (i.e. checking oil levels, locating gas stations). Is growing well, so prospects are good. Be patient.
They keep missing their goals and timing as competitors surpass them. Naybe they can get their act together, but that isn't investing. Look elsewhere.
Doesn't know them well enough nor their drug pipeline. Yes, their weight-loss drug has done well, but he doesn't own this or LLY. Their valuations have priced in the weight-loss drugs. He prefers Amgen, because their weight-loss drug is under trial and not priced into the stock yet. And it trades at a lower PE than these peers.