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Gordon Reid
President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3186 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.96 | 331 26.46% | 328 26.22% | 177 14.15% | 230 18.39% | 185 14.79% | ||
| 1 Month | 5 | 9 2.98% | 110 36.42% | 96 31.79% | 77 25.50% | 10 3.31% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 51 17.59% | 100 34.48% | 45 15.52% | 63 21.72% | 31 10.69% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 92 33.95% | 60 22.14% | 19 7.01% | 51 18.82% | 49 18.08% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 105 44.30% | 39 16.46% | 12 5.06% | 26 10.97% | 55 23.21% | |
| 5 Years | 4.78 | 74 49.01% | 19 12.58% | 5 3.31% | 13 8.61% | 40 26.49% |
Stock Opinions by Gordon Reid
COMMENT
Historically, equities do OK in second half of presidency? Absolutely. Third year of a presidential cycle is typically the best, and the fourth year is the second best. Reason is the mid-term election mirrors the winning presidential ticket. Democrats got in in 2020, and they hold Congress via the House of Representatives, so it's very likely it will switch over to the Republicans. That creates gridlock. Markets love a stalemated Congress. Nothing good happens, but nothing bad happens either, and that's a win as far as markets are concerned, and so they often do quite well in that environment.
Unknown
$0.000
Unknown
COMMENT
Republicans generally seen as more business friendly? Yes, but the Biden presidency has a veto pen, and that's usually where legislation stops. Bills can start in either the House or the Senate, the only difference being that the House can create revenue bills, which the Senate doesn't do.
Unknown
COMMENT
Portfolio positioning. He hasn't changed a whole lot. Barbell approach. On top of it being a mid-term election and markets doing well, the market has corrected severely. Over the last 75 years, the market's corrected 25% or more 9 times. Research out of New York shows how the market does subsequent to a 25% correction. Details can be found at goodreid.com / Insights / Gauge.
Unknown
WATCH
Great technology. Company future is very bright, but his job is to value the stock. Stock's always been too exuberant, environment being flooded with competitors. Still overvalued, at 55-60x enterprise to EBITDA. GM is 6x, Ford around the same. He prefers GM. CEO may be distracted by Twitter, but don't sell him short. See what happens.
0
DON'T BUY
Be very careful. Decimated during pandemic, took on lots of debt, interest coverage about 10% of revenues, extremely stressed. Filling ships, but tickets are discounted. Costs exploding, margins under pressure.
Transportation
COMMENT
Leisure travel outlook. We're moving toward a tightening of the screws on the individual. Savings rates are dropping dramatically. Only a matter of time where people are being pinched to the point where they don't take that expensive vacation.
Unknown
WEAK BUY
MSFT vs. GOOG for a 10-year hold? He owns GOOG, but isn't against MSFT. GOOG is about 6-8 multiple points cheaper than MSFT. Both very good businesses and operators. Fantastic turnaround, making software into a service. Second-largest cloud business, plus great gaming technology. GOOG has a larger moat.
computer software / processing
BUY
GOOG vs. MSFT for a 10-year hold? GOOG is about 6-8 multiple points cheaper than MSFT. Both very good businesses and operators. MSFT has done a fantastic turnaround making software into a service, second-largest cloud business, plus great gaming technology. GOOG has a larger moat.
Business Services
WEAK BUY
He owns MS instead, especially likes its wealth management. GS has tried to get into retail side, but hard to get into fintech side at this point. Both very good operators. He wouldn't object too strenuously if you chose GS.
investment companies / funds
BUY
Especially likes its wealth management. Very good operator.
investment companies / funds
BUY on WEAKNESS
Better valued here around $100, streaming continues to do well. Though streaming's off the pandemic boil, DIS has a diversified foundation. Good opportunity of possible sports gambling option. On his short list. He'd buy in high $80s or low 90s.
entertainment services
BUY
RTX vs. HON for a 2-year hold? He owns both. Both heavily involved in aerospace. HON has done extremely well, latest report hit it out of the park. Increased organic growth and margins. Success means HON is getting a bit expensive. RTX has more potential, ability to grow free cashflow over next 2-3 years, a good buy. Defense side is "sticky".
Defense
WEAK BUY
HON vs. RTX for a 2-year hold? He owns both. Both heavily involved in aerospace. HON has done extremely well, increased organic growth and margins. Success means HON is getting a bit expensive. RTX has more potential, ability to grow free cashflow over next 2-3 years, a good buy.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
DON'T BUY
Fairly expensive for its margins. Does well during economic distress. On flipside, margin pressure comes from rising labour costs. Better places to be. He's leery on consumer stocks, both discretionary and staples.
department stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 18/21, Down 51%) Timing wasn't good, and neither was AMZN's. Spent billions that became overhead, e-commerce margins have dropped and it's been punished. Will grow at 20% a year over time. AWS growing 40% a year. He's holding.
specialty stores
