Gordon Reid
Member since: Oct '07
President at
GoodReid Investment Counsel
GoodReid Investment Counsel
2515 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Down 35%) He sold this recently. Do you have the sell discipline or will you hang on and hope. Selling at a loss is tough to do. But consider what if you hadn't sold that stock a few years after selling it.
(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Up 15%) Trades at a cheap less than 10x earnings. He likes the CEO's straightforward style. They've built their wealth management services by just buying E-trade.
(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Down 13%) After 9/11, he recalls a money manager urging him to get out of travel stocks, because after 9/11 nobody will travel anymore. But he doesn't think that's true--and it didn't turn out that way. The reason is that people adjust. Also, airlines now are much more efficient businesses, keeping costs down and using technology to sell tickets and pack planes. UAL trades at less than 10x earnings. He likes airlines and UAL is the best.
It's had a tough time, but new management have turned this from a stodgy company selling old technology to one that's poised to take advantage of the 5G revolution. It trades at 14x earnings. Buy and be patient. (Analysts’ price target is $51.43)
Consumers are demanding cheap, instant delivery. They have $70 billion of sales, 150,000 ground vehicles and 650 aircraft. They lead in this area. Sure, they compete with Amazon, but FedEx is able to grow over their ground delivery in the next 3-4 years by 100%. They will get out of the penalty and the market will reward them. (Analysts’ price target is $172.08)
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COMMENT
COMMENT
February 25, 2020
He's not worried about the sell-off today or yesterday. The markets have run up with rich valuations, after all. Markets always look for a good excuse to correct. A health scare is one of the least fearful market events; the 2008 recession was worse, because the problem and cause were systemic. This outbreak will come and go like past ones. Markets are reacting badly because we don't know where the virus will go. Remember: the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19 killed many more people than this disease--this disease will eventually pass. Scare-mongering is part of the human condition. Breaking news: Disney's CEO is stepping down. He owns their stock. The news surprises him and the market. Bob Iger did a fantastic job, but there's no need to panic over his departure. The market will digest this news and accept it.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
He's not worried about the sell-off today or yesterday. The markets have run up with rich valuations, after all. Markets always look for a good excuse to correct. A health scare is one of the least fearful market events; the 2008 recession was worse, because the problem and cause were systemic. This outbreak will come and go like past ones. Markets are reacting badly because we don't know where the virus will go. Remember: the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19 killed many more people than this disease--this disease will eventually pass. Scare-mongering is part of the human condition. Breaking news: Disney's CEO is stepping down. He owns their stock. The news surprises him and the market. Bob Iger did a fantastic job, but there's no need to panic over his departure. The market will digest this news and accept it.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 25, 2020
It's an underperforming industrial stock that has stumbled in recent years. The nail in the coffin for him is that a carcinogenic chemical in many of its products is leading to lawsuits which he fears will accelerate.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's an underperforming industrial stock that has stumbled in recent years. The nail in the coffin for him is that a carcinogenic chemical in many of its products is leading to lawsuits which he fears will accelerate.
mngmnt/diversified
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 25, 2020
The oil landscape has drastically changed in the past decade. The Saudis were the swing producer before; now it's the Americans. We also have competing sources of energy, namely wind and solar. That said, oil won't go away for decades. He owns fewer oil stocks (he sold Haliburton), but holds onto names like Suncor and Parex, which should do better than an oil service name like SLB.
The oil landscape has drastically changed in the past decade. The Saudis were the swing producer before; now it's the Americans. We also have competing sources of energy, namely wind and solar. That said, oil won't go away for decades. He owns fewer oil stocks (he sold Haliburton), but holds onto names like Suncor and Parex, which should do better than an oil service name like SLB.
oil/gas field services
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
February 25, 2020
Gold Gold is a natural hedge to bad news. It's possible for gold to make new highs. He owns FNV-T, but they are a royalty firm, not a producer. His clients own 3-5% actual gold in their portfolios which is a reasonable hedge. Higher than that, he does not advise.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGold Gold is a natural hedge to bad news. It's possible for gold to make new highs. He owns FNV-T, but they are a royalty firm, not a producer. His clients own 3-5% actual gold in their portfolios which is a reasonable hedge. Higher than that, he does not advise.
precious metals
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 25, 2020
It's not just the coronavirus is hitting this stock. This trades at a mid-30's multiple, almost twice as expensive as 2005-6 on a valuation basis. The market sells of the high-beta stocks, which is exactly what's happening with MA as well as Visa (which he sold at $181). When do they bounce back, he doesn't know. Look elsewhere.
It's not just the coronavirus is hitting this stock. This trades at a mid-30's multiple, almost twice as expensive as 2005-6 on a valuation basis. The market sells of the high-beta stocks, which is exactly what's happening with MA as well as Visa (which he sold at $181). When do they bounce back, he doesn't know. Look elsewhere.
other services
BUY
BUY
February 25, 2020
How do you know when to buy a falling stock? It's tricky, but he'd rather buy it on the way up than down. He wants some certainty. After a stock bottoms and starts to move up, he buys. He likes this stock. Great cash flow and trades under 10x earnings. URI has a good future. Outside North America, countries prefer renting, not buying capital equipment. This bodes well for URI.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHow do you know when to buy a falling stock? It's tricky, but he'd rather buy it on the way up than down. He wants some certainty. After a stock bottoms and starts to move up, he buys. He likes this stock. Great cash flow and trades under 10x earnings. URI has a good future. Outside North America, countries prefer renting, not buying capital equipment. This bodes well for URI.
Financial Services
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 25, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Down 35%) He sold this recently. Do you have the sell discipline or will you hang on and hope. Selling at a loss is tough to do. But consider what if you hadn't sold that stock a few years after selling it.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Down 35%) He sold this recently. Do you have the sell discipline or will you hang on and hope. Selling at a loss is tough to do. But consider what if you hadn't sold that stock a few years after selling it.
oil/gas field services
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 25, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Up 15%) Trades at a cheap less than 10x earnings. He likes the CEO's straightforward style. They've built their wealth management services by just buying E-trade.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Up 15%) Trades at a cheap less than 10x earnings. He likes the CEO's straightforward style. They've built their wealth management services by just buying E-trade.
investment companies/funds
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 25, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Down 13%) After 9/11, he recalls a money manager urging him to get out of travel stocks, because after 9/11 nobody will travel anymore. But he doesn't think that's true--and it didn't turn out that way. The reason is that people adjust. Also, airlines now are much more efficient businesses, keeping costs down and using technology to sell tickets and pack planes. UAL trades at less than 10x earnings. He likes airlines and UAL is the best.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Mar 21/19, Down 13%) After 9/11, he recalls a money manager urging him to get out of travel stocks, because after 9/11 nobody will travel anymore. But he doesn't think that's true--and it didn't turn out that way. The reason is that people adjust. Also, airlines now are much more efficient businesses, keeping costs down and using technology to sell tickets and pack planes. UAL trades at less than 10x earnings. He likes airlines and UAL is the best.
Transportation
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 25, 2020
He admires the company, having survived 2008 without a bail-out and have improved their trucking line. They're also releasing an e-car. But they can't get traction among investors. He can't say offhand if the dividend is safe.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe admires the company, having survived 2008 without a bail-out and have improved their trucking line. They're also releasing an e-car. But they can't get traction among investors. He can't say offhand if the dividend is safe.
Automotive
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 25, 2020
Legislation handcuffs big pharma by letting patents expire and turn to generics. This stops these companies from growing revenue. Big pharma has to keep hitting home runs to survive. When they can't, they cut costs or amalgamate them. He prefers biotechs.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLegislation handcuffs big pharma by letting patents expire and turn to generics. This stops these companies from growing revenue. Big pharma has to keep hitting home runs to survive. When they can't, they cut costs or amalgamate them. He prefers biotechs.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
BUY
BUY
February 25, 2020
Very well-managed. They're not a straight beverage company like Coke. Pepsi has Frito-Lay, which is not healthy, but amounts to 50% of the company's profits. Pepsi has marketed F-L well. Pepsi is defensive and has sold off less than the current pullback.
food processing
BUY
BUY
February 25, 2020
Buy the current pullback? Admires it a lot. In the past decade, MSFT boasts a new, strong CEO and products, namely the cloud. A good stock.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBuy the current pullback? Admires it a lot. In the past decade, MSFT boasts a new, strong CEO and products, namely the cloud. A good stock.
computer software/processing
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 25, 2020
It's a little speculative, because they could invent the coronavirus vaccine. In the past they found the hepatitis C cure. Gilead did very well until a few years ago. Now, their earnings and stock are half of their historic peak.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's a little speculative, because they could invent the coronavirus vaccine. In the past they found the hepatitis C cure. Gilead did very well until a few years ago. Now, their earnings and stock are half of their historic peak.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
BUY
BUY
February 25, 2020
What return over 10 years? A good holding and finally trading at an accurate multiple. He bought this in 2006 at $9. You can hold this for the future. Apple will be a player in 5G that will demand a huge turnover in hardware (Apple phones). Apple also boasts on a sky-high customer loyalty rate.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWhat return over 10 years? A good holding and finally trading at an accurate multiple. He bought this in 2006 at $9. You can hold this for the future. Apple will be a player in 5G that will demand a huge turnover in hardware (Apple phones). Apple also boasts on a sky-high customer loyalty rate.
electrical/electronic
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