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1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)


Stock Opinions by Gordon Reid

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COMMENT
Fundamentals carry more weight than geopolitics.

People react to what's going on in their own environment. We hear daily about turmoil in Iran and the Fed raising/dropping rates. What's most impactful to stock prices are the fundamentals of individual companies. 

An old adage is that "stock prices are the slaves of earnings". If a company performs well, it will manage to navigate through the external noise.

COMMENT
Beware concentration in hyperscalers and chip companies.

The risk is that we see what's working, and over time our portfolios become concentrated in those industries and sectors. The concentration introduces a lot of portfolio risk, which is only evident after it's too late.

Remember to diversify. It's not bad to have some sectors/industries that may not be rewarded today, but whose companies are great quality and will be rewarded tomorrow. Just let them stay in the shade and they will eventually appear.

For example, healthcare is at a 20-year low on market cap as a percentage of the S&P 500. Years ago, who'd have thought? Especially given the aging population and new technology in treatments. It will eventually have its time in the sun.

COMMENT
How to diversify away from AI and tech.

Healthcare is one place to look, and there are good opportunities there. It's a broad area, so you have to be careful about the sector/industry and individual company you invest in.

If you do your research and concentrate on quality companies, they'll see you through.

DON'T BUY
Investor bought last year and is down.

Tough investment over the past year. His research showed that organic growth at risk especially given its demanding multiple. Last quarter projected 6.5-8% organic growth, instead of 10-11%.

There will be a time for this stock going forward, but it's still losing market share to MDT, ABT, and JNJ.

He doesn't know the investor's specific situation, so he's reluctant to give particular advice. However, usually when an investment goes bad it's better to cut bait and move on. It's often better to put the sale proceeds to work in a more constructive idea.

HOLD

Likes the group longer term, but homebuilders have had a tough time with higher interest rates. The House passed a bill yesterday to restrict institutional ownership of homes, which should provide some support.

Likes this company, but sold on tax implications of company reorganization. Seeing some bottoming in the sector, so he'd keep holding.

HOLD

Report the other day was fairly constructive.

HOLD

Fairly constructive last report.

BUY

Long runway with Hanes acquisition. Known for its good management. Owns this in his firm's Canadian portfolio.

SELL

Stock's down 75% over last 5 years. Reasonable monthly active user base. Obvious AI threats. On the plus side, Elliott Management has invested ~$1B.

COMMENT
Gold.

His firm has some representation in its Canadian portfolio via AEM, and he recently added. But still underweight gold. See the article at goodreid.com, under Insights, for a historical perspective.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He recently added, but still underweight gold.

BUY

Will lose market share on Search. But it's a story of a much bigger pie, so their eventual benefit will be much greater. Pulled AI into the Search model, and Gemini is in a leadership position. Multiple in the high 20s still undemanding. Spits out lots of cash. Lots of irons in the fire.

DON'T BUY
COST vs. WMT

Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.

WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.

DON'T BUY
COST vs. WMT

Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.

WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 13/25, Up 6%)

Whole group has been hurt by rising medical cost ratios as Covid-delayed procedures were finally scheduled. That turbulent time is bottoming. Tough slog, but he's being patient.

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