President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3891 Opinions
A few weeks ago they warned they wouldn't meet their numbers. Today, they said they wouldn't meet their guidance. US insurance is changing with regulatory policy demands and medical loss ratios are staying high as people are using their plans more and more as an echo of Covid. The problem is UNH's concentration in the Medicare/Medicaid space
They are the leader in search and the criticism is that they will lose market share. So sell Google? He argues that Alphabet will recapture that share, because GOOG is a leader in AI as well. Yes, GOOG will lose some of their current 92% share in search, but maybe the overall pie grows bigger, so GOOG revenues will still expand. Also, GOOG has a lot else going on--YouTube is massive with 1 in 3 humans using it, Waymo. Shares have sold off so much that the PE is below the market average now.
The company is treading water, hasn't done much in the recent versions of the Apple phone. However, their services division is doing well; services are stickier with higher margins, and make up 28% of Apple's total revenues. The phone is the core, though, and will be raising prices. People are willing to pay a lot for these phones. Last fall, they launched Apple Intelligence, their AI, but hasn't had an impacted, but that's not unusual for Apple--their launches take time to catch on. AI will be an opportunity for Apple down the road. Apple is a core holding of his.
The rides and Uber Eats are growing rapidly. Advertising boasts 175 million active users of the Uber app, and they can still capture more of the ad potential. Their freight division should be set aside; it's distraction. Also, their self-driving business will be exciting for Uber.