Gordon Reid
President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3915 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.95 | 362 29.48% | 304 24.76% | 181 14.74% | 238 19.38% | 143 11.64% | ||
| 1 Month | 5 | 10 3.34% | 113 37.79% | 95 31.77% | 79 26.42% | 2 0.67% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 58 20.14% | 93 32.29% | 51 17.71% | 65 22.57% | 21 7.29% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 103 38.29% | 52 19.33% | 20 7.43% | 54 20.07% | 40 14.87% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 115 48.52% | 35 14.77% | 10 4.22% | 27 11.39% | 50 21.10% | |
| 5 Years | 4.73 | 76 56.30% | 11 8.15% | 5 3.70% | 13 9.63% | 30 22.22% |
Stock Opinions by Gordon Reid
Oil: There's no way knowing if oil can stay above $70; the oil price is tough to peg. It is a risk asset that responds to geopolitical tension, but after this tension in the Middle East the price will probably not all down, but find balance and this issue will become a non-topic. He wouldn't be surprised to see oil a little higher by year's end. Cash levels: remain high as investor sentiment remains cautious. April remains in the memory, and caution is a good thing for the market. The time to worry is when people are super optimistic. He'd like to see this money bleed into the market as optimism improves. US Midterms: He expects Trump to be less unpredictable and less chaotic because the Republicans need to maintain their power which will be investor-friendly.
Semis are cyclical with their highs and lows, and we are possibly in the early innings of AI--who knows where AI will take us. NVDA is getting cheaper as the stock price rises. As earnings rise, so will the stock. In the past 1.5 years, NVDA shares have not risen as fast as earnings growth.
A broad topic. Defensive means predictability: utilities, consumer staples. Stocks that pay dividends and/or buyback shares. Also, telcos. Utilities are super defensive, because they basically issue a yield. Also, do you want that income stream coming from Canada or the U.S., considering taxes.
Keep a full weighting in the financial sector, which is primed for doing well in the next leg of the market. The sector is not expensive and has policy tailwinds. Banks are best capitalized in their history. It's a red herring--don't be scared off by Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill (and the fear of higher taxes).
Time will tell is they recover or not from the recent slide (shares fell by half). Their medical cost ratios have risen and we'll see if they maintain a higher level. There were fewer medical procedures during Covid, but has since increased, but also has pushed up costs for the insurers. But some issues may be temporary, including Medicare and Medicaid rates.
It's been tough in healthcare, but Amgen is good. They spent a few years ago $28 billion to buy Horizon Therapeutics to deepen their bench in biotech, including blood cancer drugs. Trades at a low multiple and pays over a 3% dividend. Plus they have a potential GLP-1 drug.
The US is pushing away from solar energy. He bought it because they were a US-domestic supplier of panels. There was an oversupply in China which drove prices down. He was counting on the domestic supplier being protected from foreign producers. This didn't happen. Today, there is a Senate proposal to end tax incentives for solar, and those shares are sliding. He sold shares in February--he saw it coming. It's hard to admit defeat, but you have to.
He owns Visa and owned MA a long time ago. Both are great, but he prefers Visa. Visa trades slightly cheaper in terms of valuation, and is much larger than Mastercard (Visa is bigger than all competitors combined). MA is more internationally active. Visa has a higher percentage of debit cards, which grows faster than credit cards. Visa competes well in terms of growth rates with MA, yet trades at a lower multiple, so cheaper. He likes that the debit card business is growing faster than credit cards.
He owns Visa and owned MA a long time ago. Both are great, but he prefers Visa. Visa trades slightly cheaper in terms of valuation, and is much larger than Mastercard (Visa is bigger than all competitors combined). MA is more internationally active. Visa has a higher percentage of debit cards, which grows faster than credit cards. Visa competes well in terms of growth rates with MA, yet trades at a lower multiple, so cheaper. He likes that the debit card business is growing faster than credit cards.
Is the leader in streaming. But you have to be a little wary of film accounting--you put the cash out front, but accountants will amortize that cost over time. So, earnings don't really reflect the true cash impact on an expanding portfolio of new releases. For a long time, NFLX was challenged on a cost basis, nor producing free cash. This is past and are now producing free cash.
