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Gordon Reid
President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3746 Opinions
Rating Card
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.94 | 349 28.75% | 309 25.45% | 185 15.24% | 229 18.86% | 142 11.70% | ||
| 1 Month | 5 | 11 3.73% | 111 37.63% | 97 32.88% | 75 25.42% | 1 0.34% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 56 19.79% | 93 32.86% | 51 18.02% | 63 22.26% | 20 7.07% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 102 38.06% | 53 19.78% | 21 7.84% | 53 19.78% | 39 14.55% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 108 46.55% | 38 16.38% | 11 4.74% | 25 10.78% | 50 21.55% | |
| 5 Years | 4.7 | 72 52.94% | 14 10.29% | 5 3.68% | 13 9.56% | 32 23.53% |
Stock Opinions by Gordon Reid
A lot of people were surprised with the outcome, especially that they took both sides of the house. According to history, a republican sweep has been better than average for the markets. It is a pro-growth, pro-individual agenda with lower individual and corporate taxes. This is leading the market to recalculate estimates on earnings and expectations.
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We saw a weaker week following a very strong week, so the honeymoon period did not last too long. It will probably persist into the new year, for some technical reasons as well as people won't be too quick to sell with hopes of favourable changes to capital gains legislation. It's seasonally a good time of the year. There is a certain degree of stealing from the future. Valuations are on the higher ranges of normalized ranges. This is demanding on the market, needs stronger corporate earnings, favourable inflation and other economic trends.
He would like to see a tempered market with average returns. Doesn't think that there is any reason, outside of a shock eg geopolitical shock, that there is a reason for the markets to be negative. However, he does not like runaway momentum markets. Wants a quiet, normal year next year.
Electrical components are driving the business. Has done very well. The hype is from the electrical side and AI/data centres. Sold it. Feels it is stretched on the valuation side. Trading at 33x earnings. Expectations for next year and the following year are in the 10% range. Not enough growth versus current price.
Had a bit of a speed bump a couple years ago with quick CEO successions. Last couple of years have been good. Last earnings report was not great. Revenues missed. Could be due to project decisions were put on hold for the elections due to uncertainty. Watching to make sure it gets back on track. Some concerns but it is a good quality company.
Has owned for a while, came to own it when they acquired a company called Annexter, which was part of their small cap portfolio. Nuts of bolt company with 50,000 suppliers in their supply change. A distributor. Everybody uses their products. Had a solid report. Making great inroads in the margin expansion. Purchased an Australian company, Pope, that is accretive. Likes it here.
A specialty school bus maker. 47% of school buses are 11 years old or older. An alternative fuel bus maker: propane, hydrogen, electric and gas. Trades at 12x earnings. Things they will make $3 a share next year. The recent pullback is probably a knee-jerk reaction from the Trump election. The issue has bipartisan support however, so not worried about it.
(Analysts’ price target is $56.00)An aerospace and defence aspect to it. There is interest due to geopolitics (eg. Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan). The safety of the aerospace aspect of this business is a good thing to have. Good growth in this area. New plane adoption is ramping up, due to fuel efficiency making money for airlines. Had a stumble a number of years ago due to discovery of contaminants in their production. They recovered from it. Knows that markets tend to forgive mis-steps if there is a constructive solution.
(Analysts’ price target is $132.95)Trading very constructively. Owns a number of them in the space. Has owned them for close to 15 years. Have done extremely well. TOL is the top of the heap. Average sale price of $1M. 25% are cash buyers so they attract the affluent. About 4-5M homes are missing in the US. It's natural organic growth. Lower interest rates are coming down the road. Lower tax regime is also coming. Both good things.
(Analysts’ price target is $157.47)As prices rise, value drops. Earning must keep up. Valuations are getting stretch, around the low-20s. Reasons are that the Fed is cutting interest rates while corporate profits have been buoyant. Early earnings this quarter are promising. But we must keep our feet on the ground. Multiples no longer are expanding, so earnings must support strong stock prices. The double-digit returns of recent years were unusual. Now, he is overweight financials--there will be loan and therefore economic growth, and the banks are cheap, trading around 12-14x PE.
It's too early to enter HD or Lowes, whose earnings will be lower this quarter than the last as their multiple hovers near historic highs. He needs to see more consumer activity here. He's on the sidelines.
Their report last week disappointed--their big problem involves Medicaid with their medical cost ratios were much higher. The street saw it as a misstep due to mis-timing.
GE Aerospace is priced for perfection. The valuation has run up to the 40s PE. To justify this high PE, earnings growth must be in 20-25%. The market has gotten too exuberant with GE. Margins are up and they beat, and yet shares are down.
It was getting pricey, so he took profits around $616. He's holding, because of a strong long-term outlook. Are fueled by the weight-loss drugs and other pharmaceuticals, of which they are the largest U.S. distributors.
It's now profitable. He bought it before this and before they entered the S&P 500. It has more room to run with many untapped opportunities, given that 100 million people use their app; is a massive opportunity in advertising. Uber Eats is gaining traction, and the Robotaxi by Tesla is promising. With driverless cars, Uber's market could explode.
