President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3841 Opinions
The market is unwinding the premium valuation of recent years as confidence grew and FOMO. Now, we have uncertainty around Trump 2.0 with valuations falling from the low-20s to the high-teens, more of the historic norm. So, he's not worried, but don't expect is to bounce back to that premium. It takes a while to build confidence, and it's healthy to see the air come out of slightly inflated valuations. A year ago, he started to sell his Mag 7; by year's end he held 24% exposure vs. 35% in the S&P. Though great businesses, nothing grows to the sky. US profit margins a year and a half ago peaked at 13.1% and now aren't far off; historically, they've been far less. Corporations have learned to adapt and perform well. Tariffs: will they be that punishing and will be Washington be so tone deaf to the US economy and push it into recession? He thinks not. We know Trump's playbook by now: bully, scare tactics and threats. The market sees this and is pulling back. Still, it's a tail risk.
It's doing very well in this environment, given their cash level and reputation. But they trailed in 2023-4 when they were building that sword. A two-edge sword. If there's a recession, this will look very good, but if this is a typical correction and return to new highs, we'll see what they do to the cash. Buffett probably has one or two targets in his sights.
China's comeback didn't happen in the past year while EV adoption has slowed, but will still happen. The copper spot price is up 25% this quarter. So, FCX will have a great quarter, given their link to that price, but the market won't anticipate that due to fear of tariffs and the impact on copper prices. Will copper be a protected mineral? Tariffs on foreign/Chinese copper? Don't know yet, but long term the secular tailwinds are intact. Copper usage will double over 7 years.