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Gordon Reid
President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3790 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
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Neutral
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Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.94 | 345 28.35% | 305 25.06% | 186 15.28% | 235 19.31% | 146 12.00% | ||
| 1 Month | 5 | 10 3.39% | 110 37.29% | 98 33.22% | 76 25.76% | 1 0.34% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 54 19.08% | 92 32.51% | 51 18.02% | 65 22.97% | 21 7.42% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 102 38.06% | 51 19.03% | 21 7.84% | 54 20.15% | 40 14.93% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 109 46.38% | 38 16.17% | 11 4.68% | 27 11.49% | 50 21.28% | |
| 5 Years | 4.68 | 70 51.47% | 14 10.29% | 5 3.68% | 13 9.56% | 34 25.00% |
Stock Opinions by Gordon Reid
Nice to have two very nice years, but there's a cost to everything. As prices go up, value tends to drop, and that's what we've seen. We're slightly overvalued on PE ratios against historical levels. 2025 will offer opportunity, but we have to be realistic. The Mag 7 contributed over half to S&P returns for 2024.
Those who have benefited from the momentum plays of 2023-24 should be quite careful, lots of air under those stock prices. Unlike quality companies that are well valued against their historical norms, the high flyers don't have that valuation floor you can rely on when markets get scared.
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Make sure we're grounded in our stock choices, in a risk-off mentality. You just have to do your work. It's pure stock-picking and factor analysis as to what's going to drive the market.
He looks for earnings, earnings growth, positive earnings revisions, quality balance sheets, and strong moats.
He believes so. His small-cap portfolio had another good year. Valuations are quite a bit lower than those in the big-cap S&P 500, both in absolute terms and compared to historical norms. Lots of opportunity there.
Much is due to smaller companies being more domestically based, so they don't face the huge headwinds of a strong USD. And the regulatory environment is positive. Changes to corporate tax policies will be most beneficial to domestic companies.
Company fundamentals are challenging. On paper, looks like a good model. But in practice, fail after fail. Overhang of healthcare malaise. Doesn't matter what the price is, you need fundamental quality to create value. Pass.
One of the most mispriced stocks around. Idea of win/loss in the space is simplistic. Good quality companies will get their piece of the pie. Well-respected brand, good app penetration. Growing at 25% annual clip on topline and earnings. Advertising is the fourth leg of the stool, and this is just getting started.
He'd buy today. Off highs. Benefits from positive bond market. Strong risk management. Fourth largest in world, largest P&C. Great combined ratio.
In general, try to exclude the political rhetoric and how it will impact individual companies, though you have to be prepared for what might come. With Trump, every 10 pounds of words leads to about 1 ounce of action. To try to react to the words will take you to bad places. Put your noise cancellation headphones on, and let the company do the talking.
Can almost say it benefited from EVs having put the brakes on; parts of the technology are not as easy to use as most car owners would like. Doesn't mean there's no future in it, just that it's slowed down. Compelling valuation. Big stock buyback on the table. His favourite in the group.
Still positive. Trades around the market multiple, yet growing 3-4x the economy. Lots of different opportunities to do well. Main source of income is Search, but YouTube and Waymo monetization opportunities are immense. Plus there's AI.
He trimmed just the other day by about 25%. Still likes the company, just not the valuation.
The best in cybersecurity. Unfortunate software update meltdown could have happened to anyone. He doubled down when the stock bottomed. Growing rapidly. Probably biggest competitor is SentinelOne.
Sold in late August. Exuberance in AI quickly turned to disappointment in investors' minds. He may not have agreed with that, but you have to face reality, so he made a quick exit. Still a good company, but risks with core business. He'd look elsewhere for new money.
Still holds. Last month brutal for homebuilders. Though interest rates drifting lower, clear that won't be going as low or as fast as the market first thought. So the interest-sensitives are being punished. Yet mortgages are going up, somewhat negative for homebuilders.
Long US mortgages cause resale market to dry up, but will eventually force home buyers to homebuilders. He's looking closely to see if this is an opportunity to increase his holding in homebuilders.
Still likes it. Leader in the space on profits and growth rate. Now trades at about a market multiple, not extreme. Growing in mid-teens annually, and expected to continue.
Likes it very much. Some hiccups from Covid buildout, but they've grown into it. Profitability rising quite dramatically. AWS doing quite well, #1 or #2 in cloud. Prime streaming also doing well. Well priced, excellent growth metrics.
