Greg Newman

Know that markets always overshoot, whether to the upside or downside. The Trump Bump was such a huge move. So many unknown variables coming in the next year:  tariffs, inflation, and how many interest rate cuts. Today, the futures market is pricing in 1.5 rate cuts next year.

When you have valuations that robust, priced for 4 rate cuts, it's actually quite a rational response for the market to take a really serious breather. Thinks the markets will end up being OK, but it's an adjustment that they have to get used to. We were going from quite restrictive, to getting way less restrictive, to maybe pausing, to the possibility of an interest rate increase next year. 

Perhaps the market should have seen it coming, because there has been this inflation and an incredible wealth effect, as well as a very robust US economy.

There really is so much uncertainty. How much are interest rates going to go down next year? What will Trump tariffs do to the economy? What will US immigration policy do to the economy?

So, yes, uncertainty. But also an incredible amount of innovation. The Biden administration put in 3 very powerful pieces of legislation that are bringing jobs back to NA, and Trump will probably approve that. We have AI. A close parallel would be the post-war years after WW2, which was an incredible period for innovation, buildout, and infrastructure. We also have all these ESG initiatives. Lots of positive factors.

The upshot is that we'll still be in a bull market, but yesterday was a needed adjustment.

Has been cheap relative to growth rate for several years. If the company executes well and interest rates fall, this can get to his target of $39. Just reported, outlook was as expected. New products coming online in 2026 & 2027. Nice dividend, probably growing at 6% for 2025, and 5% thereafter. Trades at 13.4x, reasonable growth rate ~7%.

Still likes it, though GEI may look better right now on price to growth.

Very cheap relative to peers. Oil patch, as a group, has a problem in that Trump is going to encourage drilling, which means a lot more competition. OK balance sheet, as is production and cashflow-per-share growth. 

We're in the midst of tax-loss selling, with so much pressure to pay less capital gains tax. People are just dumping stocks that are, otherwise, decent buys. All things being equal, will have a pop in January.

About 8%. A lot of that would be names in the utilities space and names like ALA. Pure oils would be 3-4%.

You have to own the Mag 7, especially if trading at a reasonable price. Top priority is AI spending and driving cost efficiencies. Q3 beat on top and bottom. Trying to maintain dominance in Search advertising. Sees 12% EPS growth from 2024-26.

But trading at a higher multiple of 19x 2026 earnings. PEG is high, but not obscene for a quality name. Way better than COST or HD. You could buy here and still make money, but he'd rather buy cheaper. Try to get it around 15-16x PE, ~$178. January will probably see a regression to the mean.

Not a bad idea. Whole sector has done really well on AI themes. Issued equity at $58 to improve balance sheet for accretive M&A. Good company. Dividend's not what it was, as the price is so much higher. 

You can see from the chart that taking profits is wise, but TD may not be the best choice. Choose BMO instead.

Will be in the penalty box for a long time. For comparison, look at the progress of WFC since 2018.

If you're bullish on gold, a good strategy. He'd prefer to do it with AEM, but hard to do given that the stock price is so high.

Fine company, good assets, above-average quality base. Really good optionality to grow. Very cheap at 11.2x PE for 2025. Recent problems in different jurisdictions. Gold has suffered with the USD screaming higher. Might even be subject to tax-loss selling.

You could make $19-20 the strike price, and get paid a nice premium, but the trouble often is that you're right about the direction of the stock, but you don't end up owning it. If it goes to $30, you miss out on making the big money. Options are a great tool that can add to your portfolio, but not always the way to go.

He just wrote some on BCE. Writing puts is a bullish strategy where you oblige yourself to own something at a lower strike price. It's skimming along the bottom and getting paid a really nice premium to wait.

Predicting currency in the short run is complicated. In Canada, people think it's about the price of oil but it's not. The biggest predictor is the 2-year rate in the US versus Canada. Right now, the differential here in Canada is about 120 bps from the US; extreme, huge.

If our central bank continues to ease, and the Fed continues to be a bit more restrictive, he's not sure the differential will change much in the short run. If the Trump tariffs resolve themselves OK, we could get a pop. But he's not playing for that.

What he's not doing is buying US dollars. Even though there could potentially be another 3-4 cents more downside on the CAD. There's way more upside over the next 3-10 years. So don't convert now. Keep your CAD. At some point there's going to be a buying opportunity for USD, but it's not now.

Q3 was a bit below on generation and pricing headwinds. More importantly, offshore continues to track on time and on budget. Mirrored 2024 guidance. De-risked a lot of their buildout. Part of the solution for the power problem in Europe.

Nice dividend, but it's still pretty pricey as a power company. Probably getting hit by tax-loss selling. Instead, he'd put new $$ into BEP.UN.

The whole space is getting hurt by pricing pressure from the current 4 players instead of the previous 3. CRTC's ambiguous roaming rules haven't helped. The story has been population growth, and now we have less of that. Still, this is the one to bet on:  best run, very disciplined, good dividend (doesn't think it will be cut). A good opportunity here with tax-loss selling.

All the telcos are pretty good buys at these levels, but this one's probably his favourite. See his Past Picks.

About 7-8% organic growth every year. Boosts dividend by 5%. Inflation-linked revenues. He's still modelling 15% AFFO growth over the forecast horizon. Really good compounder, not high risk.

CRTC hasn't helped. Lack of population growth was not foreseeable. Interest rates went up faster than anticipated. Believes telcos will start to follow the US model and start to sell their towers, lots of opportunity to monetize to the upside by selling assets. He'd be really surprised if this wasn't a really good buying opportunity.

Still likes the name. He did sell some shares a few dollars north of here, but certainly not in registered accounts.