Stock Opinions by Greg Newman - Stockchase Experts
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Greg Newman

On Stockchase since : Sep 2011

Director & Portfolio Manager at Scotia Wealth Management

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Stock Opinions by Greg Newman - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 18, 2019

We're seeing a slow melt-up with supportive central banks, stimulus in China and the third year of a Presidential cycle of a President who wants high markets. Valuations are okay and earning expectations are at a low bar. Many de-risked in Q4 and are looking for a pullback to get back in, but are not seeing it, so we're grinding up slowly. We'll be up 3-5% more this year on the Dow and other indices and take out old highs. Decent gains from here....There's good and bad news for Facebook. Bad are the recent headline; the good is the move off their lows, their growth rates and pivoting from defence to offence last quarter. Their valuation is attractive. But any BIG stock is a target for politicians, like BIG pharma or BIG tech. That's a risk. But if you buy Facebook on a pullback, you'll be rewarded in 12-24 months. The Canadian budget tomorrow: likely not enough relief for oil and no lower taxes. There's growing talk about Canada becoming more competitive like the U.S.
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We're seeing a slow melt-up with supportive central banks, stimulus in China and the third year of a Presidential cycle of a President who wants high markets. Valuations are okay and earning expectations are at a low bar. Many de-risked in Q4 and are looking for a pullback to get back in, but are not seeing it, so we're grinding up slowly. We'll be up 3-5% more this year on the Dow and other indices and take out old highs. Decent gains from here....There's good and bad news for Facebook. Bad are the recent headline; the good is the move off their lows, their growth rates and pivoting from defence to offence last quarter. Their valuation is attractive. But any BIG stock is a target for politicians, like BIG pharma or BIG tech. That's a risk. But if you buy Facebook on a pullback, you'll be rewarded in 12-24 months. The Canadian budget tomorrow: likely not enough relief for oil and no lower taxes. There's growing talk about Canada becoming more competitive like the U.S.
Unknown
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
They just raised their dividend by 12%. They beat cash flow per share and production. They are buying back shares agressively. Pays a safe dividend at 69% payout. He sees 2% production growth. Okay balance sheet. The only thing to not like is oil itself. Not enough railroads in Canada. Norway has announced it is selling its oil stocks (many no Canadian stocks are on their list). So, how big a position do you want in oil? Do you want to own oil forever anymore?
oil/gas
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They just raised their dividend by 12%. They beat cash flow per share and production. They are buying back shares agressively. Pays a safe dividend at 69% payout. He sees 2% production growth. Okay balance sheet. The only thing to not like is oil itself. Not enough railroads in Canada. Norway has announced it is selling its oil stocks (many no Canadian stocks are on their list). So, how big a position do you want in oil? Do you want to own oil forever anymore?
oil/gas
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$37.570
Owned Owned
Unknown

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STRONG BUY
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

March 18, 2019

A court dismissed a case against MFC which boosted the stock today. He likes MFC a lot. The litigation overhang is now gone. He's surprised it didn't pop more than 3.3% today, but will carry through. Lifecos do well during rising rates, but those are sluggish now. Their balance sheet in Q4 was sector-best. Asian growth is up 23% year over year. Wealth and asset management was up 17%. He sees EPS 10% growth and 9% dividend growth, trading at 7.2x PE 2020. It's way too cheap. He was buying it today.
insurance
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A court dismissed a case against MFC which boosted the stock today. He likes MFC a lot. The litigation overhang is now gone. He's surprised it didn't pop more than 3.3% today, but will carry through. Lifecos do well during rising rates, but those are sluggish now. Their balance sheet in Q4 was sector-best. Asian growth is up 23% year over year. Wealth and asset management was up 17%. He sees EPS 10% growth and 9% dividend growth, trading at 7.2x PE 2020. It's way too cheap. He was buying it today.
insurance
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$23.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
They just had a good quarter. A solid 10% YOY growth. Occupancy at 99%. He sees 5% AFFO growth. A low 73% payout ratio, so the dividend is safe. Great balance sheet. It's amazing, apart from a very high valuation and pays only a small dividend. A fine name, but he wouldn't buy it now.
investment companies/funds
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They just had a good quarter. A solid 10% YOY growth. Occupancy at 99%. He sees 5% AFFO growth. A low 73% payout ratio, so the dividend is safe. Great balance sheet. It's amazing, apart from a very high valuation and pays only a small dividend. A fine name, but he wouldn't buy it now.
investment companies/funds
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$50.230
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Dream Industrial REIT vs. BPY Dream is a good asset in a good space with a decent valuation. He likes it, but he prefers BYP for its global focus and better long-term growth. BPY trades at a good valuation. He prefers BPY, but you can buy both.
REAL ESTATE
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Dream Industrial REIT vs. BPY Dream is a good asset in a good space with a decent valuation. He likes it, but he prefers BYP for its global focus and better long-term growth. BPY trades at a good valuation. He prefers BPY, but you can buy both.
REAL ESTATE
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$11.610
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Dream Industrial REIT vs. BPY Dream is a good asset in a good space with a decent valuation. He likes it, but he prefers BYP for its global focus and better long-term growth. BPY trades at a good valuation. He prefers BPY, but you can buy both.
REAL ESTATE
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Dream Industrial REIT vs. BPY Dream is a good asset in a good space with a decent valuation. He likes it, but he prefers BYP for its global focus and better long-term growth. BPY trades at a good valuation. He prefers BPY, but you can buy both.
REAL ESTATE
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$26.450
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Barrick Gold(ABX-T) 

March 18, 2019

Their attempted Newmont purchase was arrogant, but it worked out for them. They get the joint venture they wanted. It's synergistic. Management foresees more opportunities. Q4 earnings were up. Guidance shows higher operating costs and taxes--negatives. He needs to see the price of gold move, really break out. He needs to see evidence that ABX has turned the corner after years of not doing a good job for shareholders.
precious metals
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Their attempted Newmont purchase was arrogant, but it worked out for them. They get the joint venture they wanted. It's synergistic. Management foresees more opportunities. Q4 earnings were up. Guidance shows higher operating costs and taxes--negatives. He needs to see the price of gold move, really break out. He needs to see evidence that ABX has turned the corner after years of not doing a good job for shareholders.
precious metals
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$17.370
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

March 18, 2019

The cons: They missed trading revenue and their wholesale statement in their latest report, though all Canadian banks did. The pros: Only 8% of their business mix is wholesale; trading is 5% of that; both those headwinds are now tailwinds. Most importantly Canadian P&C was up 9%, which is a key metric. They bumped their dividend 10%. TD's balance sheet is probably the best of this group. He see 6% EPS growth.
banks
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The cons: They missed trading revenue and their wholesale statement in their latest report, though all Canadian banks did. The pros: Only 8% of their business mix is wholesale; trading is 5% of that; both those headwinds are now tailwinds. Most importantly Canadian P&C was up 9%, which is a key metric. They bumped their dividend 10%. TD's balance sheet is probably the best of this group. He see 6% EPS growth.
banks
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$76.100
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
It's a great way to play gold. Gold has been out of favour for 6-7 years. When we hit the next recession, gold will likely revive. It's hard to call these things.
E.T.F.'s
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It's a great way to play gold. Gold has been out of favour for 6-7 years. When we hit the next recession, gold will likely revive. It's hard to call these things.
E.T.F.'s
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$12.010
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 29/18, Up 15%) They're buying back shares. He sees 9% AFFO growth. Trades at a reasonable 14.7x. It's only fault is high leverage with a high payout ratio, but they're selling assets to take care of that. The high US dollar and rising rates are no longer headwinds.
REAL ESTATE
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(A Top Pick Mar 29/18, Up 15%) They're buying back shares. He sees 9% AFFO growth. Trades at a reasonable 14.7x. It's only fault is high leverage with a high payout ratio, but they're selling assets to take care of that. The high US dollar and rising rates are no longer headwinds.
REAL ESTATE
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$26.450
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 29/18, Up 28%) They beat in Q4, earnings up nearly 16%. They can grow their earnings 15% compounded annually.
Transportation
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(A Top Pick Mar 29/18, Up 28%) They beat in Q4, earnings up nearly 16%. They can grow their earnings 15% compounded annually.
Transportation
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$117.960
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Metlife(MET-N) 

March 18, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 29/18, Up 3%) Slow or flar growth this and next year, but they are buying back stock. He sees 9% EPS growth this year. Their US retirement portfolio has been doing well. It's cheap at 8x PE and paying almost a 4% dividend. It's been stagnant for many years, but it has tailwinds of lower taxes and volume growth. They're growing in Asia and Europe.
insurance
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(A Top Pick Mar 29/18, Up 3%) Slow or flar growth this and next year, but they are buying back stock. He sees 9% EPS growth this year. Their US retirement portfolio has been doing well. It's cheap at 8x PE and paying almost a 4% dividend. It's been stagnant for many years, but it has tailwinds of lower taxes and volume growth. They're growing in Asia and Europe.
insurance
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$45.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Cash flow per share was in line in Q4. He sees 9% production growth and 8% cash flow per share growth. It's cheap at 6.7x though peers are at 4.5 x. Good balance sheet at 1.9x debt-to-cash flow. Their dividend is sustainable. It's one of the few oil stocks that hasn't cut its dividend. If you're comfortable with the direction of oil in the mid-term, then own this.
oil/gas
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Cash flow per share was in line in Q4. He sees 9% production growth and 8% cash flow per share growth. It's cheap at 6.7x though peers are at 4.5 x. Good balance sheet at 1.9x debt-to-cash flow. Their dividend is sustainable. It's one of the few oil stocks that hasn't cut its dividend. If you're comfortable with the direction of oil in the mid-term, then own this.
oil/gas
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$33.950
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 18, 2019

Should a retail investor go 100% equities (with many dividends) and no bonds? This is fine IF you know yourself. Do you know what you'll do three years from now if your portfolio is down? Do this if don't need to sell stocks to finance your lifestyle. Many retail investors own 100% stocks. Also, it depends how much money you have at stake. Have a game plan and stick to it.
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Should a retail investor go 100% equities (with many dividends) and no bonds? This is fine IF you know yourself. Do you know what you'll do three years from now if your portfolio is down? Do this if don't need to sell stocks to finance your lifestyle. Many retail investors own 100% stocks. Also, it depends how much money you have at stake. Have a game plan and stick to it.
Unknown
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
They have a lot of room to go. He sees % growth. Capital ratios are very good. Return on equity is among the highest. It's a play on the US doing well and global growth. You can do well buying and holding this long-term.
Financial Services
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They have a lot of room to go. He sees % growth. Capital ratios are very good. Return on equity is among the highest. It's a play on the US doing well and global growth. You can do well buying and holding this long-term.
Financial Services
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$107.335
Owned Owned
Unknown

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