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COMMENT
Reassessing risk.

The middle of October is usually a pretty dark period for equity investors. Midterm elections, an Alberta election, a Toronto election. And then all these gate points that have missed -- CPI yesterday was worse than expected, PPI today worse than expected, US retail sales not so good without gasoline.

Investors are, rightly, reassessing risk. Whenever you have bond yields move the way they have in such a short period of time, people take a great deal of notice. How will that impact business decisions?

Essentially, the bond market has done the work for the Fed and the BOC on rate hikes. The thing that investors have to analyze is whether, in that higher interest rate world, they're still comfortable with their equity exposure? From tech baskets to neoclouds. That's the angst we've had for the last 6 weeks.

Easy to point it out, but the bigger question is how does it resolve itself? Where do we go from here?

COMMENT
Should investors be concerned about AI?

Doesn't think so. Normal and very healthy for investors to have this gut check. We're still climbing that wall of worry, and people are still sober. People aren't seeing the once-in-a-generation opportunity that is before us.

This is a 4-year bull market, and it's been pretty generous. But it can be way, way more generous -- as long as we don't have exogenous shocks or really big policy mistakes by the Federal Reserve. If we can contain inflation, and if yields are where they are for the right reasons, that is growth. And there are great places to be.

However crowded the tech stocks are (and the whole world's looking at them), they're still not expensive. Many are trading at a multiple relative to the S&P. S&P's trading at 19x PE for 2027, and that's its 10-year average.

BUY

Really good run over last few years, makes sense for it to base here. Market's correct to see that large engineering projects do carry risk (execution, cost, timing, new contracts). Geopolitical risk in Middle East. Last quarter backlog flat, investors disappointed.

Likes it here. Strong exposure to everything Canada's trying to do. Backlog of $20B. Revenue up 10%, EPS up 20%. Nuclear growth accelerating. Great balance sheet. Buybacks. Trades under 16x PE, growing ~18%. Holding relatively steady amidst this correction.

BUY

Macro of the data centre buildout keeps extending. Great company, major player in this ecosystem. Selloff on the chart is exactly what you'd expect with a hot company like this. At a level where you can add (unless you own it on leverage, or you already own too much). 

He'd probably own in a non-registered account, as it's going to be a cyclical play at some point.

BUY

Beat last quarter. Slightly lower sales with higher margins, so it evened out. Organic growth up 3.7% (estimate was 4.9%). Maintained 2026 guidance, expects acceleration in second half. If it stays cheap, we'll see buybacks. Models 13.6% growth, trades ~13x PE. Classic buying opportunity.

WEAK BUY

Q2 was pretty good, second-half guide disappointing (lack of visibility in growth). Thinks we're at a floor. A show-me stock. Dirt cheap at 8-9x PE for 2027. He models growth of ~24%. Cost inflation and higher fuel prices are headwinds.

Market broadening beyond Mag 7 has been slow. A rotation can benefit a name like this. Make no mistake, it's a growth name (not as safe as a Loblaw).

PARTIAL BUY

Largest pharma company in the small Canadian space. Q1 revenues up a nice 11%, EBITDA margins strong at 31%. Paid down debt. Catalysts for growth. New company with limited track record. Expired cancer drug licence means a 1% hit to revenue. Ever-present risks of generic pricing and regulation.

The (very few) analysts who cover it project 14% growth. Trades at 13x PE. Too risky for your registered account. It's come down enough that you can buy a bit down here.

HOLD

Classic 6% EPS growth. Owns some really good assets. Really pricey here. All the interest-sensitives have come down a lot. Likes it, but cheaper names in the space. 

Take a look at AQN instead.

BUY

You can finally take a look at this name. Redomiciled to the US; lost a lot of money flows in Canada, but can pick up more in the States. Outsized opportunity for investors.

BUY

Selloff is not of its own making; has to do with the weaker macro. Q2 in line, reaffirmed 2026 guidance. Arizona Copper World is on track. Trades at 21x PE for 2027, growing ~15%. 60% copper, 35% gold, rest in zinc.

Chart looks like a triple top. Copper's absolutely needed for global expansion. Go ahead and buy.

WEAK BUY

Great dividend, just raised 35% on Friday. Paying down debt. Balance sheet in good shape. Closing underperforming stores, which can limit near-term growth. FCF is good. Nothing came out of strategic review.

Restaurants in Canada and US. Same-store sales were down 1.9% latest quarter. Consumer is cautious. Stock's cheap enough (6x PE for 2028) that you can wade in. Still sees 8% growth. Good value play, though you might have to wait a year or so to see it. There's more strength in the economy than the fear that's in the stock right now.

DON'T BUY
BTE vs. BIR

BTE is an oil name. Mega-tax deduction. Cashflow just beat. Increased production guidance. Trades in line with peers at 5.2x PE. Excellent balance sheet, better than BIR. He models 12% returns, higher than BIR. All in, this one's the better asset.

BIR is natural gas. Tailwind from LNG Canada Phase 2. Cashflow beat. Cheaper, better growth. 

Both have powerful catalysts. Whether to buy one or the other should depend on your outlook for oil vs. natural gas. Oil has more downside if things start getting better in the Middle East. Nat gas has way more upside, so he'd go that way. Names he prefers to BIR are AAV, TOU, and PEY (in that order).

DON'T BUY
BTE vs. BIR

BTE is an oil name. Mega-tax deduction. Cashflow just beat. Increased production guidance. Trades in line with peers at 5.2x PE. Excellent balance sheet, better than BIR. He models 12% returns, higher than BIR. All in, this one's the better asset.

BIR is natural gas. Tailwind from LNG Canada Phase 2. Cashflow beat. Cheaper, better growth. 

Both have powerful catalysts. Whether to buy one or the other should depend on your outlook for oil vs. natural gas. Oil has more downside if things start getting better in the Middle East. Nat gas has way more upside, so he'd go that way. Names he prefers to BIR are AAV, TOU, and PEY (in that order).

BUY

What to buy in energy should depend on your outlook for oil vs. natural gas. Oil has more downside if things start getting better in the Middle East. Nat gas has way more upside, so he'd go that way. Names he prefers to BIR are AAV, TOU, and PEY (in that order).

WEAK BUY

What to buy in energy should depend on your outlook for oil vs. natural gas. Oil has more downside if things start getting better in the Middle East. Nat gas has way more upside, so he'd go that way. Names he prefers to BIR are AAV, TOU, and PEY (in that order).

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