Greg Newman
Director & Portfolio Manager at Scotia Wealth Management
Member since: Sep '11 · 2929 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.83 | 251 25.28% | 267 26.89% | 169 17.02% | 202 20.34% | 104 10.47% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.73 | 4 1.69% | 80 33.76% | 94 39.66% | 57 24.05% | 2 0.84% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 40 17.24% | 84 36.21% | 37 15.95% | 48 20.69% | 23 9.91% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 78 35.94% | 47 21.66% | 19 8.76% | 45 20.74% | 28 12.90% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 79 41.36% | 35 18.32% | 13 6.81% | 39 20.42% | 25 13.09% | |
| 5 Years | 4.44 | 50 43.10% | 21 18.10% | 6 5.17% | 13 11.21% | 26 22.41% |
Stock Opinions by Greg Newman
We have these mega-gains. Both September and now going into October are the seasonally weak periods. Big investment houses like GS are saying that we've had so many good returns for so long, there has to be a regression to the mean for US equities. They say 30% odds of a recession and that the next 10 years aren't going to be as good. So that's one thing.
But on the other hand you have very powerful tailwinds. The "big, beautiful bill" has been passed and is very stimulative. One interest rate cut already, probably 2 more this year, and more next year. Those are also very stimultive. And we have all this AI technology that's proliferating -- delivering a lot of spending, a lot of demand, and a lot of productivity gains eventually.
You have these 2 things going on at the same time. But the question is valuations. Parts of the US have gotten very expensive, such as AI-related stuff and the Mag 7. People have been saying for a very long time that it's a very narrow trade and to be careful. But that didn't mean that they weren't going higher and that there wasn't value there.
We're at a point now where certain names still make sense, such as NVDA and AMZN. The other 5 are getting a bit pricey and over their skis. But there are other pockets that are still very investable.
The Mag 7 are starting to look a bit tired and showing some signs of exhaustion.
Financials are on fire; they have deregulation behind them, an upward-sloping yield curve, and strong capital markets activity. Aerospace and defense are global themes attracting a lot of spending to meet targets. If the price of gold bullion stays where it is, gold equities are trading a lot cheaper than they ought to be.
Small caps is another area he likes. There are 10k companies, and a lot of them are interest-rate sensitive. With lower rates and a better economy (we just had a 3.4% GDP print), there are some really strong tailwinds for them as well.
Ironic that recent revenue and earnings missed, but it sees cloud infrastructure segment swelling from $10.3B in 2025 to $144B by 2030. Big winner of AI boom. Could be involved in TikTok ownership. Despite all the talk of capex, looks rather asset-light to him.
Huge run, but he's still modelling 28% EPS growth from 2026-2029. Trades at 38x for 2027 and 27x for 2028, kind of an expensive PEG, but not bad. Don't buy at the top, accumulate on pullbacks.
Only trading at 28x for 2027. Growing visibly in high 20s-low 30s. Only problem is if growth starts to slow. At what point do people jump ship? These are cyclical companies. The difference between being super-successful and not executing well can be by a factor of 10, as that's how exaggerated moves can be.
If demand really slows, look out below. Concerns of over-building in AI, might not all be needed, and we don't know for sure. The people saying that we need all this AI demand are the ones benefitting from the rising stock prices. The average of the 50 analysts who cover it are saying it can grow 27%. Still a good deal if what they're saying is true.
Went to a roadshow, and was super-impressed with management and its vision. Lots of big investors behind it. Seems to be the real thing so far. But it's speculative when you have no earnings. Stock's caught a bid and has flown up to $30. He owns a little bit for suitable clients. Thinks it has further to go. Thinly traded.
Last quarter had record originations. Earnings momentum continues, up 22%. Very good loan balances. Goldilocks opportunity -- marketplace uncertainty rises, but economy weakens only marginally. Lots of people don't have access to traditional credit, and AI has really helped identify qualified candidates. 90% in the US, with growth in UK.
Reasonable multiple at 12x for 2027, growing ~31%. Doesn't get the respect it deserves. A must-own.
CP is the better value on price to growth, though CNR still does work. Don't be in any hurry to buy the rails. You can hit nice singles with them if bought at the right time.
All the transports have had a tough time -- JBHT just guided lower the other day. Really a bifurcated economy, with some things really humming but freight not doing so well. Concerns about where free trade is ultimately going.
Going to be lots of consolidation in the space, which has really good tailwinds. For the first time in many years, federal government is really intent on getting resources offshore. LNG Canada, despite delays, is up and operating.
Cheap relative to group. Higher debt profile, but company aims to get it in line by 2026. A strategic merger with MEG would be very good for stakeholders.
Really safe, payout ratio of 71%. They did have a leak, but market seems satisfied that it's not systemic. Chart shows that it's technically at the high end, a bit overbought. Valuation is well-anchored at 14x compared to higher peers. 10% EPS growth. Very high-quality, high-contracted, stable cashflows.
Could buy a bit here, but he expects some sort of pullback in the next few weeks. So use the chart and buy then. Yield is 7%.
Earnings quality still improving, though last quarter showed some negatives in the US. Acquiring Comvest, a private asset management platform, which should be nicely accretive. At 7.5%, not same EPS growth as a year ago. Trades at 9.8x versus peers, 45% payout ratio. Nice dividend, which will have some nice growth.
In general, insurance companies are a better buy than the banks right now.
Great area to be in. Executed on everything, but not everything in the stock market always goes up the way you want. Last 12 months has seen a lot of success buying assets at good prices and monetizing old assets. Trades at 10x AFFO, same as last year. Growing at 17% for 2025-2027.
Upside + safety + good valuation + nice dividend + going up 5-10% each year = a TSX stock to put your $$ in.
