Stock Opinions by Greg Newman - Stockchase Experts
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Greg Newman @

On Stockchase since : Sep 2011

Director & Portfolio Manager at Scotia Wealth Management

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Stock Opinions by Greg Newman - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 18, 2019

People were overly negative last quarter and it didn't make sense stocks sold-off that hard. We're not having a rally off the Fed being more dovish. He predicts 2019 will be a good year. Now, we see a fear of the market moving higher as investors jump back in. The pain trade is to the upside. FOMO. Earnings are 15% YOY growth in the U.S. There's some great news out there. The TSX is off to a strong start in 2019; global growth will only help Canada, where we got so crushed to the downside.

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People were overly negative last quarter and it didn't make sense stocks sold-off that hard. We're not having a rally off the Fed being more dovish. He predicts 2019 will be a good year. Now, we see a fear of the market moving higher as investors jump back in. The pain trade is to the upside. FOMO. Earnings are 15% YOY growth in the U.S. There's some great news out there. The TSX is off to a strong start in 2019; global growth will only help Canada, where we got so crushed to the downside.

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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

Last quarter revenues were a slight miss. Burger King and Popeye's did perform well. He sees 18% EPS growth and it trades at a reasonable 19X. Good growth of stores and they're turning around Horton's. A good grower. It may be close to breaking out.

food services
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Last quarter revenues were a slight miss. Burger King and Popeye's did perform well. He sees 18% EPS growth and it trades at a reasonable 19X. Good growth of stores and they're turning around Horton's. A good grower. It may be close to breaking out.

food services
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$76.210
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Vermilion Energy Inc(VET-T) 

January 18, 2019

He sees 11% production growth, 8% cash flow per share growth which is not as good as it was, because oil prices have fallen. Good news: trading at 7.4x vs. 9.7x 5-year average. Okay balance sheet, but needs to see a better balance sheet in case the oil price falls. 116% payout ratio for 2020. The dividend is safe-ish. This one of the few dividend oil names you can own.
oil/gas
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He sees 11% production growth, 8% cash flow per share growth which is not as good as it was, because oil prices have fallen. Good news: trading at 7.4x vs. 9.7x 5-year average. Okay balance sheet, but needs to see a better balance sheet in case the oil price falls. 116% payout ratio for 2020. The dividend is safe-ish. This one of the few dividend oil names you can own.
oil/gas
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$32.670
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SPECULATIVE BUY
Arc Resources Ltd(ARX-T) 

January 18, 2019

A great company, but the oil price is hurting them. 143% 2020 payout ratio, so the dividend is not safe. 6.5x earnings, cheaper than the past 5 years, but that's high compared to their peers. That said, it's a quality name. You can own this if you expect oil prices to rise.
oil/gas
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A great company, but the oil price is hurting them. 143% 2020 payout ratio, so the dividend is not safe. 6.5x earnings, cheaper than the past 5 years, but that's high compared to their peers. That said, it's a quality name. You can own this if you expect oil prices to rise.
oil/gas
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$9.900
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Wajax Corp(WJX-T) 

January 18, 2019

It'll be flat this year. It's very illiquid, so likely way cheaper than it ought to be. Good balance sheet. Cheap at 8x earnings. The payout ratio is safe. You can buy and win with this.

merchandising/lodging
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It'll be flat this year. It's very illiquid, so likely way cheaper than it ought to be. Good balance sheet. Cheap at 8x earnings. The payout ratio is safe. You can buy and win with this.

merchandising/lodging
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$19.340
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

They've disappointed for a long, long time. Won't see growth until 2020. He sees 1.8% AFFO growth. The balance sheet still carries a little more debt than it should. There are better opportunities out there. If they continue to execute, this should be better in coming years.

investment companies/funds
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They've disappointed for a long, long time. Won't see growth until 2020. He sees 1.8% AFFO growth. The balance sheet still carries a little more debt than it should. There are better opportunities out there. If they continue to execute, this should be better in coming years.

investment companies/funds
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$11.890
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Unknown

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HOLD
What must the price of oil be for this to see a meaningful upside? $60-65 oil. But Alberta has curtailed production. CPG is more sustainable since cutting their dividend to near-zero. Their debt-to-cash is 1.6x, which is better. Remarkably cheapo at 3.2x earnings. But they don't have good cash flow per share growth nor production growth. We've probably seen the worst. The big difference will be the TransMountain pipeline happening. Hold if you already own, but don't enter this.
oil/gas
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What must the price of oil be for this to see a meaningful upside? $60-65 oil. But Alberta has curtailed production. CPG is more sustainable since cutting their dividend to near-zero. Their debt-to-cash is 1.6x, which is better. Remarkably cheapo at 3.2x earnings. But they don't have good cash flow per share growth nor production growth. We've probably seen the worst. The big difference will be the TransMountain pipeline happening. Hold if you already own, but don't enter this.
oil/gas
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$4.660
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Surge Energy Inc(SGY-T) 

January 18, 2019

Cash flow per share is flat. Balance sheet is imperfect. 114% payout ratio (not bad), and there is 10% production growth. It ticks some boxes. A lower-quality oil name, but has higher torque to improving oil prices.

oil/gas
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Cash flow per share is flat. Balance sheet is imperfect. 114% payout ratio (not bad), and there is 10% production growth. It ticks some boxes. A lower-quality oil name, but has higher torque to improving oil prices.

oil/gas
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$1.350
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
U.S. banks are much cheaper than ours and boast 10% growth rates. Trading at only 10x PE. They have loan growth. They all had a tough Q4 and, except for fixed income, the banks are operating well. So ZUB is a buy.
E.T.F.'s
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U.S. banks are much cheaper than ours and boast 10% growth rates. Trading at only 10x PE. They have loan growth. They all had a tough Q4 and, except for fixed income, the banks are operating well. So ZUB is a buy.
E.T.F.'s
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$26.720
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL BUY
He sees for 2019 only 8% growth, which is low for BABA, but he foresees it rising to 25% beyond. This is growth at a reasonable price. A quality name to buy bit by bit after this pullback.
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He sees for 2019 only 8% growth, which is low for BABA, but he foresees it rising to 25% beyond. This is growth at a reasonable price. A quality name to buy bit by bit after this pullback.
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$157.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 26/18, Down 2%) Q4 was strong, capping off a great year. They had sector-leading ROE at 18.5%. Still trades at a discount to peers. Earnings will grow 7%, but Canadian debt is a worry. You can buy it now.
banks
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(A Top Pick Jan 26/18, Down 2%) Q4 was strong, capping off a great year. They had sector-leading ROE at 18.5%. Still trades at a discount to peers. Earnings will grow 7%, but Canadian debt is a worry. You can buy it now.
banks
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$60.740
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Stantec Inc(STN-T) 

January 18, 2019

(A Top Pick Jan 26/18, Down 9%) Just exited construction business, pulling down this stock. Trading at 14x, still cheap vs. peers, and expects strong growth this year. Be patient. It'll work out.
consulting
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(A Top Pick Jan 26/18, Down 9%) Just exited construction business, pulling down this stock. Trading at 14x, still cheap vs. peers, and expects strong growth this year. Be patient. It'll work out.
consulting
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$31.160
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

January 18, 2019

(A Top Pick Jan 26/18, Up 33%) Their Q3 was a good beat, up 58% YOY. He expects even more this year. He see 230% EPS growth this year. But it trades at 160x 2020 earnings.
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(A Top Pick Jan 26/18, Up 33%) Their Q3 was a good beat, up 58% YOY. He expects even more this year. He see 230% EPS growth this year. But it trades at 160x 2020 earnings.
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$210.550
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
High quality. Decent payout ratio. Earnings to grow 18%. Quality assets. Lots of liquidity through asset sales and will deploy capital. It ticks all boxes except it's pricey vs. peers.
Utilities
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High quality. Decent payout ratio. Earnings to grow 18%. Quality assets. Lots of liquidity through asset sales and will deploy capital. It ticks all boxes except it's pricey vs. peers.
Utilities
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$37.780
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Growing dividend 5% annually, with 9% AFFO growth. 14.6x valuation. High-quality REIT, a play on U.S. office. They break old malls and re-package them. This is defence as well as offence.
REAL ESTATE
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Growing dividend 5% annually, with 9% AFFO growth. 14.6x valuation. High-quality REIT, a play on U.S. office. They break old malls and re-package them. This is defence as well as offence.
REAL ESTATE
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$23.140
Owned Owned
Unknown

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