Greg Newman
Director & Portfolio Manager at Scotia Wealth Management
Member since: Sep '11 · 2891 Opinions
Rating Card
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| 4.81 | 237 24.38% | 259 26.65% | 170 17.49% | 205 21.09% | 101 10.39% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.72 | 3 1.27% | 81 34.18% | 94 39.66% | 57 24.05% | 2 0.84% | |
| 6 Months | 4.91 | 38 17.04% | 76 34.08% | 36 16.14% | 50 22.42% | 23 10.31% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 73 34.60% | 45 21.33% | 20 9.48% | 45 21.33% | 28 13.27% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 75 40.11% | 36 19.25% | 14 7.49% | 39 20.86% | 23 12.30% | |
| 5 Years | 4.42 | 48 42.11% | 21 18.42% | 6 5.26% | 14 12.28% | 25 21.93% |
Stock Opinions by Greg Newman
This rally has been one that everyone's hated because it didn't make a whole lot of sense. We still have all this tariff noise, though there has been some de-escalation. A lot of hedge funds sold near the bottom. People are scrambling to try to keep up and chase this market higher.
Tariffs are hard for people to deal with. There's an acronym going around -- TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). And it's what the market is starting to believe. By and large, what market participants got wrong in April was that earnings in the US and Canada actually held up better than people thought. Forward guidance held up better. There is some de-escalation, maybe 2 steps forward and 1 step back (as today with China).
You have to ask yourself some questions. Does Trump want to be unpopular? No. Does he want to lose the midterms, which are not too far off? No, but he probably will if he puts the economy into recession. Softer inflation data came out in the States today. But it's sell in May and go away, and we still have this opaqueness.
We end up with the next 18 months looking pretty good, with a big beautiful bill coming in with deregulation, tax cuts, spending, etc. And all that will be good for the economy. But the short term will see tough markets.
What they're saying is that this number captured the front-running of trying to get ahead of tariffs, and that we'll still see the negative effects. But there is all this optimism with this new government being much more stimulative for Canada. Getting more projects off the table and boosting inter-provincial trade.
It's nice to see this better-than-expected number. What does that mean for the BOC next week? Probably will be on hold and not lower rates. Our currency is going up, which isn't as much a secular Canada call as it is a weak greenback.
Investors can take comfort in that he thinks we've seen the big moves down. But we're still going to have trading ranges. Markets are back near highs, so you don't need to go full-in. And it is May.
Depends where you own it. If in a taxable account and you have to pay capital gains, he'd say no. If it's in a registered account, it becomes a very good question, and he'd say yes.
It was on its back forever, and look at it now. There's a lesson for all investors: a lot of stocks take their time to shine. Still has a 10% growth rate, trades at 22x PE (kind of expensive, but WMT trades at 33x and COST at 45x). He thinks the whole space is pricey, and he'd put $$ into other areas.
Banks are very resilient and recession-ready. Credit risks have gotten a lot more manageable. Our regulatory regime is robust. Better trading in volatile times kind of shelters them. If looking to put capital to work, the sector is trading at 10.8x PE, with 8% EPS growth, yield is 4.4%.
His favourite one in the group, best bank for the buck. Trades near the peer multiple, best growth rate. Really good upside.
Best name in the group in terms of quality, but that's reflected in the stock price. Has scale, a diversified revenue mix, synergy upside, long-term track record, most-trusted bank. Nice Bank of Hong Kong accretion upside. Over the next 10 years, especially if Canada's going to be in a more pro-growth phase and with the growth that the US is trying to engineer, it should be really good for RY.
Stumbled a bit on earnings yesterday, and that was probably a buying opportunity. Not his favourite bank right now (that's BMO), but can't go wrong with this one.
Everybody loves the dividend here. Made a really bad acquisition 10 years ago, company was punished. Off that bottom, it's been pretty impressive. Q1 beat by 15%, raised guidance. Really good progress on capital allocation -- dividend raises, small tuck-ins, buybacks. Trades ~4.7 EBIT to EBITDA vs. its normal 6.3 mid-cycle valuation. Add on dips.
You always have to be putting new $$ to work. If you're at your asset allocation on equities, you don't need to add.
But if building a portfolio, this name is pretty defensive with good upside. Actually benefits from tariff noise as producers look to diversify export markets. Gaining new contracts. Utility business doing really well on data centres. Great combination of offshore gas and onshore data centres.
At 16x, trades cheaper than peers; growing around 10%. 3.1% dividend yield, which is growing nicely.
Nice recent production and FCF beats. High-quality company. Diversified marketing portfolio. Are we in the sweet spot for natural gas as TMX starts to come online and Canada starts to export LNG? He thinks the answer is yes. Trading in line with peers, nice production and FCF growth. Balance sheet's in good shape. Nice dividend. Payout ratio is 90%, pretty safe.
Buy when down. Safe to put some $$ in right now.
Loves the new combination of WCP + VRN -- very synergistic, strong free cashflow, increased scale. Doing some asset sales, which will pay down debt and improve balance sheet. 3% lower capex is prudent in this tougher environment for oil.
Bad news is that it'll move as oil moves, and oil's in a tough place here. Trump will want to see oil prices lower, and the Saudis will want to play along with him. This stock works now, but will be a tough place if oil comes down a lot.
Natural gas (59%) play in the US. Went off the radar of Canadian investors. Good deal here. Q1 free cashflow beat by 16%, lower operating expenses, modestly higher liquids. Buybacks. At 3.8x, cheaper than peers at 5.5x. Decent production, flat cashflow per share. Balance sheet a bit more indebted than peers.
Continues to be an accretive growth story with deleveraging. Tariff noise was unexpected. Still, showing solid execution. Forward 2025 guidance appears achievable. Impressive ability to improve margins. Not expensive at 11x PE for 2026, growing at 17%. Not for the faint of heart.
He was looking for a turn in the trucking cycle, and the stock was already off from highs. But it hasn't turned around. Then came tariffs. Kitchen-sink quarters. Very cyclical name. Still, this is a "when" thesis, not an "if" thesis. Trades ~10x PE for 2027, growing around 33%. Great compounder, always M&A upside. Very skilled management, long-term win.
At the time it was cheap on PEG basis, AI play with AWS, growing into all its capital expenditures, economy was looking good. Then tariffs. Now there are headwinds, and it put out softer guidance. Still sees 19% growth, trades at 23x PE. PEG is really not bad for one of the world's best companies. Can probably get it ~$190. Still a winner, more to go.
Tough space for investors, office has had a tough time since Covid. Looking for the turnaround for a long time, and it's been slow. Now trades at 9x PE for 2026, but no growth. Balance sheet is fair. Yield is 11.7%, which they can make.
Don't buy just yet; you have to try to anticipate that "magic moment" when it's time. Hold if you own it. If economy turns down, so will this. If economy's OK, then stock's probably in a bottoming process.
Really suffering today, despite the good print. Company estimated $300M in costs due to tariffs, but that tariffs will be neutral in the long term. If you're looking for a retail stock, a good name to buy now.
But is retail a good thing to own? It's a very tough trade, just like airlines. You have to be right, and it's very economically sensitive. Jeff Bezos says that, eventually, all retailers go broke.
