Greg Newman

You always want to see breadth widening. Mag 7 leadership has done much of the heavy lifting for markets for quite some time. Now 62% of stocks in the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are above their 200-day MAs, and that's what you want to see for a healthier, balanced market. 

Breadth isn't fully healthy, but it is improving. Hasn't gone in a straight line. 

At the end of the day, you have to take the markets that are in front of you. And we're still in a bull market.

Lots of opportunity in tech and in Canada with the nation-building theme. Banks have done really well and deserve the multiple they're at, with earnings improving and probably more to go.

Some software names have really come down a lot. Some really good opportunities to buy stuff that's cheaper than it ought to be.

SHEL beat last quarter on integrated gas. Nice dividend. Increased dividend by 5%. Not a demanding multiple, about 7.5x PE. Cheaper than peers. ARX purchase does add longer-life, low-cost assets, so it adds production growth past 2030. 

Still, SHEL has lower production profile than peers. Q2 was good, but guidance was a bit light and reduced buybacks a bit.

Answer depends on your tax situation. If in a registered account, he'd take the cash and buy something else in the energy sector such as CNQ or OVV. If in a taxable account, he'd convert to SHEL and stay with it.

Oil prices are everywhere, and you have to be comfortable with that. Probably not a bad idea to buy when oil is ~$70 and everyone thinks the worst has passed. Trades in line with peers. Balance sheet in very good shape. 25% FCF from 2025-2027, on 3% production growth. Nice dividend. Even if oil goes down, it's profitable down to WTI at $50. 

If you think oil's going down, you don't want to buy this stock. It's a coin toss right now with oil at $70. There are easier risk/reward places than oil stocks right now.

Helpful to see what insiders are doing, but it doesn't always tell the story. 

Stock's just been thrown away. Trades at 11x PE for 2027. Four points lower PE than the banks, growing at 12%. Great quality business, good compounder. AI can replace parts of its business, but in the order of only 1 of the 20 steps needed for what they do. Real estate, engineering, investment management.

A name you can buy right now. Cheaper than it ought to be.

Lower nat gas prices do help. Likes its capital allocation. Farmer balance sheets are improving. Last quarter was in line. Buying back stock, increased dividend. Reasonable multiple of 12x PE for 2027, growing ~6%. Quality company, right theme. Likes it, but at a lower level.

Gift to all banks with OSFI lowering capital buffer, which really increases ROE picture. Since GFC, they all traded at 11-12x PE forever. Surged up to 15x, and their growth profiles are really growing into valuations. All passed the bank stress test beautifully.

With valuations where they are, he'd be careful.

Last quarter was good, beat across all segments. Solid, sequential improvement. The top is coming (he promises). In a non-registered account for some estate planning, why not sell a call around $180-200 in the next 6 months?

Everything's really working in its favour. Adding long-term duration assets in Colorado. Bought assets below replacement cost, 2-3% accretive. At 8.3x, cheaper than CPX (9.1x). He models 26% discount cashflow per share growth. A belle of the ball. Hard to find good value in energy, but this is one.

Hit his radar recently. Will work if you buy around these levels. PEG isn't 1, but still very good value. Painful to buy things when they're down, chart is scary, but there's upside.

You can buy those calls back, and then roll up to $320 or so. If you buy back the near-term call, and then sell a longer-term call, chances are it won't cost you any money.

Absolutely don't sell a put to oblige yourself to buy more, not right now. You want to sell puts when the premium is really good. Premium here isn't good, as stock's been heading straight up.

Great quarter. Belle of the ball of the banks. Strength in Canadian lending in both personal and commercial. Less cyclical than before, as rough markets lead to more trading and helps diversify earnings profile.

Engineering consultants were hit by concerns on Middle East and on AI eating their lunch. Backlog down a bit last month. Quarter beat, full year guidance upheld. Way too cheap down here. Priced at 16x, growing 17%. Stick with it, and you shall be rewarded.

Plains acquisition has closed and been integrated, which really helps fuel growth through 2030. Purchased 50% interest in KAPS, accretive by 1%. Trading at 18x PE for 2028, growing at 28%. You can buy more right now.

Paying you really well to wait. At the time, he bought it for the nat gas market finally turning; all those catalysts are still in place. Still cheaper than it ought to be. Not an "if" story, just a matter of time. Sit and enjoy your dividend; will start to work probably in the not-too-distant future.