Stock Opinions by Greg Newman - Stockchase Experts
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Greg Newman @

On Stockchase since : Sep 2011

Director & Portfolio Manager at Scotia Wealth Management

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Stock Opinions by Greg Newman - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 21, 2019

Market Outlook - Two drivers in the market now: The Fed maybe staying dovish and now Poloz now saying the same again. The view is still uncertain from here. This has been a hated bull market since 2009 and this recovery has been hated as well. The pain trade is higher. Not enough people is allocated. The earnings bar is low which is supportive. The next mantra now is that once the US and China sign a deal you have to sell on the news. The market is not expecting a rollback of the 10%. He sees the S&P500 at 3000. There is no magic here. We passed the technical resistance which is around 2700-ish. There could be a dip like in December 2018 if the Fed starts to rise rates and US and China impale themselves.
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Market Outlook - Two drivers in the market now: The Fed maybe staying dovish and now Poloz now saying the same again. The view is still uncertain from here. This has been a hated bull market since 2009 and this recovery has been hated as well. The pain trade is higher. Not enough people is allocated. The earnings bar is low which is supportive. The next mantra now is that once the US and China sign a deal you have to sell on the news. The market is not expecting a rollback of the 10%. He sees the S&P500 at 3000. There is no magic here. We passed the technical resistance which is around 2700-ish. There could be a dip like in December 2018 if the Fed starts to rise rates and US and China impale themselves.
Unknown
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
Finning Int(FTT-T) 

February 21, 2019

A cyclical name. Exposed to Western Canada. They reported today and it was sloppy in Latin America. Good backlog in Canada and great balance sheet. It trades at a reasonable multiple considering its growth rate. If we don't get Line 3 in Canada it wont be a great year for 2019. But he sees this as a when more than an if. Good long term holding
wholesale distributors
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A cyclical name. Exposed to Western Canada. They reported today and it was sloppy in Latin America. Good backlog in Canada and great balance sheet. It trades at a reasonable multiple considering its growth rate. If we don't get Line 3 in Canada it wont be a great year for 2019. But he sees this as a when more than an if. Good long term holding
wholesale distributors
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$24.790
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Telus Corp(T-T) 

February 21, 2019

The bad is that last quarter they had lower margins. and there is more competition. But they are executing well. Growth of 8 to 10% 2018 to 2020. 80% payout ratio. All in this is a good name. It won;t lead our portfolio higher but it is a good name without a lot of downside risk. (Analysts’ price target is $51.73)
telephone utilities
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The bad is that last quarter they had lower margins. and there is more competition. But they are executing well. Growth of 8 to 10% 2018 to 2020. 80% payout ratio. All in this is a good name. It won;t lead our portfolio higher but it is a good name without a lot of downside risk. (Analysts’ price target is $51.73)
telephone utilities
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$47.270
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Cineplex Inc(CGX-T) 

February 21, 2019

Growth rates have come down. It is a box office name. They have diversified but BO is still 75% of their revenues. in the end they are modeling 11% earnings growth. Trading at 19 times 2019 earnings. Dividend is safe-ish.
other services
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Growth rates have come down. It is a box office name. They have diversified but BO is still 75% of their revenues. in the end they are modeling 11% earnings growth. Trading at 19 times 2019 earnings. Dividend is safe-ish.
other services
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$24.760
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Vermilion Energy Inc(VET-T) 

February 21, 2019

One of the few names on oil land where he sees production growth and CF growth. It trades cheaper than its 5 year average. He is constructive on the name. It's balance sheet isn't the most pristine but OK. OK to own as long as you see oil in the $55 -$65 range.
oil/gas
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One of the few names on oil land where he sees production growth and CF growth. It trades cheaper than its 5 year average. He is constructive on the name. It's balance sheet isn't the most pristine but OK. OK to own as long as you see oil in the $55 -$65 range.
oil/gas
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$32.730
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Netflix Inc.(NFLX-Q) 

February 21, 2019

Expensive name. Trades at 88 times earnings. Q4 earnings were very strong. Revenues up 27% in the year. They are modeling earnings growth at 88%. If they can execute on their business model and growth flawlessly. Exposed to macro risk.
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Expensive name. Trades at 88 times earnings. Q4 earnings were very strong. Revenues up 27% in the year. They are modeling earnings growth at 88%. If they can execute on their business model and growth flawlessly. Exposed to macro risk.
Unknown
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$356.970
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

February 21, 2019

A name they owned since $40. Last quarter was a beat but their guidance didn't meet the street expectations. he models 55% earning growth. he wouldn't buy it at this level. As long as they execute well you can buy on weakness as their addressable market is huge. (Analysts’ price target is $246.00)
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A name they owned since $40. Last quarter was a beat but their guidance didn't meet the street expectations. he models 55% earning growth. he wouldn't buy it at this level. As long as they execute well you can buy on weakness as their addressable market is huge. (Analysts’ price target is $246.00)
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$236.160
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Thomson Reuters Corp(TRI-T) 

February 21, 2019

It had a meteoric move. Speculative name at these levels. He likes the name and he got out at around 62. Maybe there is something there that he doesn't see. A quality name but he wouldn't be adding here.
publishing/printing
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It had a meteoric move. Speculative name at these levels. He likes the name and he got out at around 62. Maybe there is something there that he doesn't see. A quality name but he wouldn't be adding here.
publishing/printing
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$70.010
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Why it rose so much after last December dip? He has an answer: it shouldn't have been there in the first place. The markets are sometimes very inefficient in the short term. Core office remains healthy. Still cheaper than shadow REITs with double growth rates. It is not a no risk like Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) but certainly something you can put in your RRSP.
REAL ESTATE
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Why it rose so much after last December dip? He has an answer: it shouldn't have been there in the first place. The markets are sometimes very inefficient in the short term. Core office remains healthy. Still cheaper than shadow REITs with double growth rates. It is not a no risk like Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) but certainly something you can put in your RRSP.
REAL ESTATE
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$26.130
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Nutrien Ltd.(NTR-T) 

February 21, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 23/18, Up 16%) Still a big fan of the name. Balance sheet fired power. Still modeling a 35% EPS growth. A name you can very much get behind here.
agriculture
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(A Top Pick Feb 23/18, Up 16%) Still a big fan of the name. Balance sheet fired power. Still modeling a 35% EPS growth. A name you can very much get behind here.
agriculture
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$71.600
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

February 21, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 23/18, Up 7%) For Q4 ROE was 16.9% earnings up 20%. Capital ratios very high. Trades at a modest premium but still very cheap 10.1 times 2020 earnings. If you have it you can still add here.
banks
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(A Top Pick Feb 23/18, Up 7%) For Q4 ROE was 16.9% earnings up 20%. Capital ratios very high. Trades at a modest premium but still very cheap 10.1 times 2020 earnings. If you have it you can still add here.
banks
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$76.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 23/18, Up 17%) There was lots of skepticism a year ago on this name. All three banners are performing well. Tim's has been turning around. There are growth opportunities. He is modeling 17% EPS growth for a name trading at 19 times 2021. A little expensive but still a great international name.
food services
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(A Top Pick Feb 23/18, Up 17%) There was lots of skepticism a year ago on this name. All three banners are performing well. Tim's has been turning around. There are growth opportunities. He is modeling 17% EPS growth for a name trading at 19 times 2021. A little expensive but still a great international name.
food services
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$85.600
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
AbbVie Inc.(ABBV-N) 

February 21, 2019

The valuation is low and dividend is high. It cold be a trap. They focus in Humara. There is pressure from competition. He wouldn't be buying here as it carries more risk than it looks like.
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The valuation is low and dividend is high. It cold be a trap. They focus in Humara. There is pressure from competition. He wouldn't be buying here as it carries more risk than it looks like.
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$78.750
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Exchange Income(EIF-T) 

February 21, 2019

He likes this name. They are modeling 20% EPS growth, 10% FCF growth. Pays a nice dividend easy for them to pay. Payout ratio of 60%. The only negative is that their balance sheet is a little too levered. The name doesn't get the respect it deserves. he think it is going higher.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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He likes this name. They are modeling 20% EPS growth, 10% FCF growth. Pays a nice dividend easy for them to pay. Payout ratio of 60%. The only negative is that their balance sheet is a little too levered. The name doesn't get the respect it deserves. he think it is going higher.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$33.270
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 21, 2019

What is a good sector to deploy cash now? He would look into global financials, health care and technology. Longer term he would go with technology. It is not really that expensive given its growth rates higher. There are many ETFs to access it like XLK. In terms of individual names Google [Alphabet (GOOGL-Q)] shows high growth rates and attractive valuation.
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What is a good sector to deploy cash now? He would look into global financials, health care and technology. Longer term he would go with technology. It is not really that expensive given its growth rates higher. There are many ETFs to access it like XLK. In terms of individual names Google [Alphabet (GOOGL-Q)] shows high growth rates and attractive valuation.
Unknown
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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