Director & Portfolio Manager at Scotia Wealth Management
Member since: Sep '11 · 2799 Opinions
The answer is "very little". If these tariffs really go on, and if they go on big (25% across the board), and if they're lasting, and if this is really their game plan, the playbook is going to be deeply recessionary. It'll be deeply recessionary for Canada, and could be recessionary for the US as well.
It won't be a question of what should you own. It'll be more a question of what should be sold. You'll want to really bring down your equity allocation.
People want to know if this is really going to happen. Anything can, and we're certainly in uncertain territory. As your anchor, look at Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan. This involves 3% GDP Growth, 3% debt to GDP (very deflationary), and 3M more barrels. Looking at the US, its biggest priorities are to grow and to cover their debt. If they don't get in front of that debt, at some point it's going to be calamitous. They're never going to get in front if it if that economy doesn't grow. Getting from 2% to 3% is not going to happen with tariffs.
A lot of it is the antics of negotiation, and he doesn't want to be wrong and misallocated in portfolios. But 3 months from now, he'd gamble that we'll be out of the tariff woods.
Fentanyl at the border, the Arctic, and paying our fair share of NATO. The trick will be that if tariffs are put on, the waiting game begins of how long will they last? If they are put on, markets will just drift down and down and down.
He believes that at some point the Trump administration will cry uncle and lift them, because tariffs weren't actually their primary motivation. His guess is that tariffs will last 2-3 days or weeks, and then Donald will move on to something else.
Just had significant miss in the segment that's 40% of its business. Q4 was way worse than feared. Overreaction to downside. Thinks earnings have likely bottomed, as he thinks tariffs won't happen. Looks really good at 11x 2026 earnings, with 18% EPS growth rate for 2025-2027 -- really nice PEG ratio. At 8.3x, cheaper than peers.
The proposed, and then reversed, move to the US is just noise. Good growth stock, buy when weak but not if we're going into a recession. He's more inclined to buy now than to wait for Tariff Tuesday next week.
He just trimmed target due to additional capex. EBITDA up 10%, nice. He is worried about tariffs on this name. Always trades a bit pricey. Expects 11% EPS growth, trades at 19.5x. Could probably get cheaper, but good grower over time.
If you think tariffs will go away, good technical level to start nibbling at.
Growth estimates of pipelines have really gone up in past few months with nat gas prices going higher. More throughput looking likely on Trans Mountain. More incentive in Canada to talk about moving oil East-West and North-South.
Perhaps #4 or 5 on his list of which pipes to buy first. Solid company, valuation more attractive than previously. You won't get hurt with this one.
An opportunity, as it just sold off on marketing segment.
Growth estimates of pipelines have really gone up in past few months with nat gas prices going higher. More throughput looking likely on Trans Mountain. More incentive in Canada to talk about moving oil East-West and North-South.
So much at play. Donald wants more barrels per day, but are companies going to respond? He's not sure. They well remember their near-death experiences from "production at all costs" years ago. There's also Russia -- is there going to be a potential thaw down the road? Same with Iran. The IEA thinks global demand will be 2-3% higher in 2026 and 2027, peaking at 2029-2030.
Canadian oil companies are pretty cheap, pretty attractive, returning a lot of cash to shareholders. Would he invest in oil with all this noise? No. He'd go more for the natural gas side -- it's an export that needs to happen. Both Germany and Italy came to us a while ago, and now we're finally responding. Price of nat gas in Asia is higher than here. Out nat gas price is about double what it was a year ago. That's where you want to be.
Doesn't think the 10% tariff will be put on. With Canadian energy trading at a discount, the price already swings, so 10% is not really that big a deal. These companies can survive if a 10% tariff is imposed.
Deferred capex, a positive. Flexibility with its fleet. Strong balance sheet. Under 6x PE, way cheaper than US peers. Softness this year due to tariff uncertainty, sees growth returning in next couple of years. If tariffs don't go on, a nice buy. Put it in a non-registered account as more of a trading stock.
He models 22% growth at 23x PE. Normally he'd like it, but it's had too big of a move from the fall. Not convinced it'll hit target numbers. Less exposed to tariffs.
Would be less exposed to any tariffs imposed.
Really solid earnings the other day. Targets are way higher than what the street expected. Great numbers in growth and free cashflow. Sector is immune from tariffs. 24x PE for 2026, growing at 15%. Don't be a hero, wait to get it at a lower level.
Terrible result. One out of every 20 stocks is going to hit you in the head. You want a stock like this in a non-registered account, so you can sell it for the capital loss. Market still believes in 78% EPS growth from here. He's holding.
Bought, in part, on prospects of a greener world. Came down on weaker China and on the (much less green) Trump victory. Didn't execute as well in Q4, softer sales, higher capex. Copper's a good long-term bet. Trades at 15x with 19% growth.
Still likes it. USA really needs to grow its way out of this deficit.
Hit all its numbers. Q4 was a modest beat. 21x PE for 2026, growing at 28%. One of the best techy names out there, and the aggregator of all the autonomous vehicles in the system. He'd look to buy more.
Hurt by pricing, competition, and CRTC rulings. Tailwinds from immigration have changed. Intensive capex with higher interest rates. Needs to sell assets and towers (and lease them back). Dividend is too high. Compelling down here.
In registered accounts, he's held on. In non-registered, he sold in November for the loss, and then got back in after the 30 days passed. You'll be fine longer term.