Lyle Stein

Holy cow, what a ride! We've had a country taken over, we're still in the midst of a major war, now there's stuff going on in Iran, the Fed is in discombobulation, tariffs are on, tariffs are off.

He can't recall having gone through anything like the last 3 months in terms of geopolitical volatility.

Unquestionably, it's this Middle East conflict. We still can't even begin to think about the unintended consequences (second- and third-derivative effects) of what's gone on over the last 30+ days.

Ships that were moving crude, nat gas, and fertilizer and left 37 days ago are now in ports. But there's nothing coming behind them. What's that going to mean for global crops and production of all kinds of things? Gasoline prices in small and emerging economies? They're really hurting.

We can estimate how much this will take off global GDP, but we really don't know at this point.

This ceasefire is very fragile. He wouldn't want to handicap an outcome.

As an investor, it's easy to get caught up in the noise. But when you think about it, what has happened?

Everything else being equal, oil prices are going to be higher moving forward. Insurance won't cost the same as it did in February and before. Will there be tolls? We don't know. They're talking $2M per ship that goes through. That'll just increase the price.

Put all this stuff together, oil prices are now higher. That has an impact that will carry through, but we don't know to what extent.

Take the semiconductor industry. They need helium. What is that going to mean?

It's really hard to know the exact impact but, basically, global costs have gone up. So growth implications have to be ratcheted down. The market hasn't factored all that in yet.

Hard Assets, Low Obsolescence. 

In this kind of environment, cashflow is king. Best cashflow comes from hard assets -- you can look at them and determine their value in terms of what they're producing in terms of revenue/cashflow/dividends.

Low obsolescence means that they have somewhat of a moat (as per Warren Buffett) around themselves. Nobody can replace it in the near term. It's not going away. 

Those are the kind of assets you want to hold at certain times, get paid with that dividend. If growth comes, that's great. But it's going to be there 5 and 10 years from now. You're not worried about 5 days, 5 weeks, or 5 months.

These things survive all kinds of uncertain times. And we're in one now.

Tough call. Likes it more today than back in November. Rolled over since the peak last year. Mag 7 names are suffering from a technical name -- they're "tired" ;) 

Not as sexy as a chip manufacturer. Doesn't have a specific AI product. Not cheap. Growth hasn't been stellar, so the multiple is contracting. That's indicative of a tired market. Question of how to monetize Copilot will hang over it for at least a year.

Everybody owned it. If everybody owned it, who's left to buy it when things start to go soft?

He's out. No clarity regarding its ability to growth the US market. Management change. No question it's a cheap stock. All weight-loss drugs have had prices come down; that's the uncertainty, and how do you value that?

Precious metals should be in every portfolio as an insurance policy. It's a diversifier. He uses bullion as that play. Then you have the leverage on bullion, which are the shares (for all practical purposes).

In between, you have something like SII that runs an ETF. Or you could have a streaming company that collect royalties off of the operating companies.

There's a hierarchy -- bullion, miners of bullion, royalty companies, then a Sprott who's an asset manager. He's owned them all.

His position today is that he's trimmed back his gold position dramatically by reducing names. For example, AEM was a 10% holding but today it's at 6%. Same thing with all the names in the portfolio.

Gold hasn't performed over the last 35 days, but it did its job over the last 2 years. He'd be a buyer today. His clients should be at 10% for the insurance component; today they're not quite there at 8%. The equity component is about 7%. So 8 + 7 = 15% in golds today. His gold plays are AEM and FNV.

Precious metals should be in every portfolio as an insurance policy. It's a diversifier. His position today is that he's trimmed back his gold position dramatically by reducing names. For example, AEM was a 10% holding but today it's at 6%. 

Gold hasn't performed over the last 35 days, but it did its job over the last 2 years. He'd be a buyer today. His clients should be at 10% for the insurance component; today they're not quite there at 8%. The equity component is about 7%. So 8 + 7 = 15% in golds today. His gold plays are AEM and FNV.

Precious metals should be in every portfolio as an insurance policy. It's a diversifier. His position today is that he's trimmed back his gold position dramatically by reducing names. Doesn't own it today, but there's nothing wrong with it. He just took the weighting down in his precious metal names.

Preferred shares have been spectacular fixed income investments. At his firm, they look at how much cash is generated for returns and at the growth profile.

There are so many options out there, so he's hesitant to recommend a specific one. His portfolios have held Enbridge preferred shares in US dollars for a long time. Wonderful yield, better than the common shares.

If you can buy a preferred share at a discount ($22-23), you have some upside potential should it be taken out. A lot of preferred shares have been taken out.

You can do an internet search to look for names. In the space, he owns pipeline and financial names. Yields can be 5-6%.

His clients have about 10% in producers, all with a gas bias. Natural gas is a long-term solution to all the green problems in the world. Stability comes from market demand from data centres, etc. Perfect intermediate fuel between today and nuclear power.

As an investor, your head will spin trying to figure out what the price of oil is doing today. First thing to look at is the futures contracts. Specifically, look at December -- price has gone down for the last 2 months. It's not discounting a high price going forward. When an investor values companies, they're valuing them off that long-term price than off the spot price.

Great name. Well run, likes management. Likes its ability to grow over time. Small cap.

His bias is toward natural gas names right now. Natural gas is a long-term solution to all the green problems in the world. Stability comes from market demand from data centres, etc. Perfect intermediate fuel between today and nuclear power.

His bias is toward natural gas names right now. Natural gas is a long-term solution to all the green problems in the world. Stability comes from market demand from data centres, etc. Perfect intermediate fuel between today and nuclear power.

He owns no communications stocks based on the macro view. Slow-growth sector, at best. Good dividends, but they are at risk.

If he were the new CEO coming in, the dividend would be high in the pecking order of ways to restructure the company. If you need a tax-loss, a perfect candidate. If it then pops up, so be it. Much better fish to fry.