NVIDIA CorporationNVDAHOLDOct 29, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 25, 2026. Market Open.
Thinks we're now in the later innings of the GPU cycle. Bifurcation between open- and closed-source models. Over time, NVDA will be the leader for open source. But Anthropic, OpenAI, and others like them will move ahead in closed-source. Over time, what part of the market will NVDA capture? Valuation's not expensive.
After owning for 5 years, she sold.
Exploding growth, visibly growing 48% compounded annually from 2026-2030. Trading 14x PE for 2028. Just beat and raised. Moat. Exceptional margins of 75%. Concerns on circular financing. 5 customers control 70% annual recurring revenue. Competition is trying to break in. Cyclical.
People aren't crediting it with enough value. Still a Buy. Still going to go up a lot. Yield is 0.45%.
Critics say Nvida is making investments to keep all their balls in the air -- making money by paying their customers, which is called circular financing. It's considered a sign of danger, because we saw this happen leading up to the Dotcom collapse. He strongly disagrees. NVDA's CEO knows that the companies that are using his chips are starting to make a ton of money, so why not back them up? The Dell CEO confirmed that to him.
We saw NVDA jump yesterday after another quarter of blowout earnings. They surprised on both the top and bottom line. EPS growth rate of 111% versus this time last year! Sales growth of 106%. Question is whether that's going to be sustainable long-term?
Not that it won't continue to be innovative and profitable, but some of these tech giants in the AI space have analyst expectations set very high.
He will watch to see if the monetizing of this $1.5 trillion infrastructure will happen. It's still early innings. Some say this is like Cisco in 2000, but NVDA is a high value-added product. NVDA will maintain and increase pricing power. NVDA is the centre of the AI trade.
There's little chance their earnings will disappoint. There's a 75% chance they will meet expectations and talk about a good Q3. They could talk about their next-generation chip, too. All this could lift the stock after being sideways. A dividend won't move the needle and it's premature. From October 2022 to October 2025, NVDA rose 1,700%, but much slower in the past year. But this could be a base to accelerate again; it's trading at its 100-day moving average.
Not at all. There are too many people calling for a bubble. You don't have a bubble top when so many people are prognosticating that we might have a bubble. That's one sign.
The other sign is that if you look at forward earnings, it may be 26, 27, or maybe 30x forward PE. COST and WMT are trading at 50x. So that's not really a bubble. The darling of 2000, CSCO, was trading at 126x sales. That's a bubble.
He can see a bubble at some point in the future, and it's likely as this name continues skyward. But at the moment, it's fundamentally viable and driven by the demand for compute. The demand is actually there. Their chips are needed for AI, and the only reason we can't run AI at its full capabilities is because we can't get the energy to do so yet.