His fear was of too many potential disruptors in this area, and he wasn’t sure that they could deliver. He would be tempted to be more of a seller than a buyer even though the yield is attractive. Technology is changing quickly in automobiles, and if car companies start giving away access to this type of service, it is going to be very hard to convince people to pay for it.
This bank is so tied to the energy complex in the west and the western economy, there is probably going to be a little bit of rough water before calm seas set in. He would be more comfortable buying one of the bigger banks, as they are breaking out of their technical formations, meaning they are making better money. Watch the loan loss provisions get built into the big banks when they report in a month. If they start to go way up, that augurs poorly for this bank.
Has not been a great stock to own. Great yield. He keeps waiting for the Chinese growth to show, but China has had a rough year. More than half their sales come out of Asia. Thinks this is an entry point, but is getting somewhat impatient with these big international banks because they are slow to turn. This one has had a combination of being in Europe, which appears to be turning, and of being in China, which rolled over last year.
The UK is the biggest part of their business, and Brazil being #2. It is also big in the US. The problem is just a function of getting them turned. They have been beaten with a stick by the regulators for so long. You think that things are starting to get better, and then they don’t. He is losing patience. Things are getting better in Europe and he thinks this will be a beneficiary of that.
Didn’t take any of the new issue. This was a 4% yield, and he thinks it is safe. He is looking for growth with some yield, and this one is only yield. If you are looking to buy this for a fixed income type of investment and just to have in a portfolio and are happy with the yield, it is OK. You should wait for it to pull back a little.
Markets. The US employment trend has been pretty consistent for 5 years now. Unemployment is consistently coming down over time and more people are finding work. About 95% of the US population is now working. We are almost back to the top of 2007. A lot of Americans are working and that provides tons of benefits which means a lot of ammunition for the investment side of the business. The S&P had a wonderful bounce September through October, and he feels we are just going through a digestive phase. If we didn’t have a bit of a sideways move here, he would be concerned. We could go a few weeks or months sideways, or even give a little bit back, but it doesn’t break the double bottom showing on the chart. His cash position is currently below 10%. He has been investing through the entire fall, especially after the 2nd bottom went in. There is still a lot of room.