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Economy. Coming into this year we had the fear of weak demand, similar to January 2015 when everybody was freaking out about a weak China and a weak global economy. Fast-forward to the end of 2015 which showed the strongest growth in 5 years. The same pattern is coming to pass this year, where once again China’s weak global economy is perceived to be weak, and yet demand is growing by about 1.4 million barrels per day. The issue was oversupply which is now almost approaching zero, courtesy of very strong demand and supply falling off the cliff, not just in the US. US production is now down to about 800,000 barrels a day from the peak. That trend will continue until we get a high enough oil price to allow for an increase in activity in the US. The rig count now is at about half of where it needs to be able to maintain flat production, let alone to grow production. For 2017, 2018 and 2019, unless we incentivize an increase in activity in the US, he thinks we will be short of oil and we will get a price hike. He thinks we are going to see $60-$65 in the next 6-12 months. January and February was the worst period in the history of the oil and gas business. We have come through that period and the worst is over.

In this current environment, you need to separate the company from the stock. Has a lot of admiration for the company team. They were trading at a relative discount to some of their peers. He really likes the company, but has been bearish on gas for a very long time. He is especially bearish going through this summer because there was no heating demand this past winter. As a result, storage in North America is epically high, and Canada is even higher. It would have to get into the mid to high $20s before he got interested.

Has seemed to take forever for Coribb to finally come online, and that is ramping up now. Full ramp is going to take another 3-4 months. Feels the dividend is sustainable. During the weak period of January-March, a lot of fund flow found its way into those names that were perceived to be much lower risk. This was one of them. Because of that the stock held up very well, relative to many of its peers. As a result, it never fell as much as oil fell. Because of that he finds the valuation not overly compelling. Feels the 6% dividend yield is sustainable.

Given that they don’t have to pay a dividend any more, free cash flow would come down to maintenance capital to maintain flat production levels. His guess is that it would be in the mid-$40, because their heavy oil required a price of around $33-$34 for about half the production, and the remaining half is liquids rich gas plus light oil. If you own, consider trimming.

Has been tainted with the Amaya (AYA-T) brush. Had a Short attack which drove the stock down to $8. Should they be successful in finding someone to take them out, a price range of $17-$20 is probably not a stretch. A moderate growth business, but the free cash flow they generate is massive and should be commanding a much larger premium than what it is getting. Expects there will be a full take out of the company.

The vast majority of production is dry natural gas, and has rallied along with the whole group. As people get more optimistic on oil prices, he can feel an undercurrent of euphoria on natural gas. This is on his radar screen. Thinks gas is going to get pretty damn ugly in the next couple of months. He would like a better entry point. This is probably the best way to play the natural gas leverage.

(A Top Pick June 8/15. Down 54.43%.) This company finds small businesses that require capital, and buy royalties streams from them in exchange for cash. They are still earning very good rates of return. However, occasionally they have to take a write down. He is still buying.

(A Top Pick June 8/15. Down 46.56%.) It is really a terrible situation for service stocks. Not overly optimistic on the service space. There is still so much latent capacity, especially with the drillers.

(A Top Pick June 8/15. Up 4.47%.) No longer owns this. It has massively outperformed how oil has done. However, unless they do some wildly accretive acquisitions, it is trading at fair value. He wouldn’t own this today.

His only hang-up is that they have $1.2 billion in debt and just raised $100 million. They still have $1.1 billion of debt, and relating that to the amount of cash flow they’ve been generating, it is still about 3.5X, which is too high. He would rather buy names that have way less debt, which means that as oil prices recover they will be generating more free cash flow than they can deploy into the field, and can compress their multiples.

Because of concerns with the Western Alberta economy, and even the Canadian economy, there are signs of weakness. The stock has always appeared cheap to him, but he never sees it reclaiming a higher multiple because there will always be the concerns that it is a highly cyclical business. Unless the economy is rip-roaring, it is not the type of stock you want to own.

Loves the company but at $3.20 the stock makes no sense to him. It is already embedding huge upside from making accretive acquisitions. He doesn’t like paying up for a deal that they may or may not do. The stock is overvalued.

A great company, but the stock has had a very, very great run. Looking at the valuation, relative to what he can buy in Canada, he doesn’t understand this one.

Probably a good tax loss candidate, but at $.07 maybe you just hang onto it. The downside is 100% and your upside is limited. He would suggest that bankruptcy is not far off. Not a name he would hold.

They ran a strategic review, which resulted in no buyers, and the CEO decided to leave the company. If you own, he would just sell the stock.