DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

ENPH has been hit hard on slowing growth in solar, but also last week Trump proposed eliminating tax credits on solar applications. This is a big risk and until this is fully decided we would be cautious on the stock. Sentiment is extremely negative on the sector. EPS fell sharply in 2024 and is expected to recover this year, but many customers could pull orders and without credits demand could falter. The company has missed estimates in four of the past eight quarters. We would hold off on any buying for now.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free  

BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

PPL is up 4% this year and 25% over 52 weeks. It's 18X earnings with a 3.23% dividend that has shown decent recent growth. Debt is high as is common in the sector, but OK earnings growth is expected over the next two years. Cash flow is high and stable, though we would like to see higher free cash flow conversion. The share count has declined over the past six years with buybacks. All in, we would consider it OK. Fundamentals and sector outlook are fine. It is priced well. We would not expect huge growth here, but we would consider it decent for income and potential growth over time.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free 

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

AMGN is a large, safe, blue chip healthcare company trading at a low valuation of 13X earnings, with a 3.29% dividend that has shown growth. Cash flow is high and stable and the company has shown good historical earnings growth. Cons are that earnings growth is slowing, the sector is vulnerable to possibly-negative government changes (price controls) and lots of competition on some of its newer products. We would like to see a better future pipeline of products. Amgen's reliance on legacy drugs, like Prolia, and biosimilars to drive growth is likely to create an overhang as these products lose exclusivity over the coming years. Its last quarter was decent, with results ahead of expectations. We would consider it a decent, safe buy in the healthcare sector.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free 

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The Benefits of Long Term Investing: Compounding returns and wealth building

One of the most powerful aspects of long-term investing is the ability to benefit from compounding returns. By holding investments for years or decades and reinvesting dividends or profits, your money grows exponentially over time. Compounding is less effective in day trading because positions are rarely held long enough to accumulate significant returns from reinvested gains. Gains are typically re-deployed into new positions, which, more often than not, are not as good as the position just sold.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free 

COMMENT

The U.S. market is overcrowded. Going back to 1968 there have been 3 major peaks in the U.S. market of high household ownership of stocks. 1968 saw 28% household ownership, 2000 saw 25%. In both cases they were followed by a 50% drop. Now the household ownership is 30% compounded with foreign ownership of U.S. stocks being more than the previous two times, although this year there has been somewhat of an exodus to other markets. When the S&P 500 reaches this level the following historical return is close to 0%. However U.S. tech stocks have a greater portion of the market now so this pattern may not repeat. This all means investors should be more vigilant and make sure the fundamentals justify what they own.

DON'T BUY

It is not a U.S. bank he would buy today. It has made an effort to improve operations since 2008 but is one of the less profitable banks. It is an international bank and is spread too thinly. He would buy JP Morgan

BUY

It is involved in private lending. It is a newer company and its valuation is lower than its peers and it is growing faster. It has pulled back with the other alternative investment managers. It is also somewhat different from the others since it has a high proportion of permanent capital with more predictable returns. 25% earnings growth is predicted for this year and 20%per year over the next 5 years. Even a little less growth would still be good.

COMMENT

There has been a 10% pullback this year and this tends to happen every couple of years with the S&P. But the component of tech stocks may mean more frequency for 5, 10 and 20% drops.

Unspecified

It has had a great run and is the best preforming Canadian bank. All banks have recovered since April. You can probably count on a 5 to 7% return plus the dividend.

BUY

There are concerns it might be too diluted if the acquisition goes through. However the acquisition would be accretive and the 7-11 stores could become more profitable, as well as supplying more food for ATD's stores. It is still an uphill battle and if it doesn't go through it would allow ATD to concentrate more on organic growth.

COMMENT

It has had 6 consecutive quarters of beating expectations. He prefers CNQ with its strong history of consistent growth and 5% dividend which it has been raising for 25 years.

HOLD

It has dropped 90% since its IPO. A buyout from Telus has been proposed so you could hold it until the deal closes for a bit more.

Unspecified

It is in its third year (of three years) of paying back $600 million in debt. It still has $158 million to pay back in the second, third and fourth quarters this year. Oil prices are off but management still thinks they can do it with flexibility in capital spending and a supportive banking syndicate. The CEO and CFO collectively bought $250 000 of stock recently. This could be significant since there has generally not been much insider buying in the last few months since the April sell-off. If the debt is paid off they will have all this free cash flow for other purposes including re-instating the dividend, which would lead to a stock price increase,

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 17/24, Up 45%)

One year ago it was trading at a discount to NAV and has ownership in 4 publicly traded subsidiaries. The prior 10 year return to shareholders was 15% and you can expect the core distribution earnings to be about 17%. It is fine to start accumulating for the long term or you could wait for a pullback. It is a long term success story.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 17/24, Up 23%)

It has returned to its premium valuation and is a very profitable specialty insurer. It grows at a 15 to 20% historical level. It uses technology to grow rapidly and be a low cost insurer.