On a short-term basis, this bank is running into resistance. Some of the indicators are a little bit high right now. The whole sector is reasonable and ranks well. One of the few pro-cyclical sectors that do rank well besides tech and industrials. He would rather pick this one up at around $95 or wait for it to break out to new highs at around $107.
This is lagging the other groups on a short-term basis, but the chart shows a nice solid trend line going up. It is banging right into the 21 day, around $51, right now, which is important for short-term traders, and he would like to get above that. He would like to see it test the October low again of about $48, or break out to a new high. You could buy this knowing that the downside is kind of limited and knowing you don’t have to wait too long for an upside breakout.
Hugging just below $9, which is the 50 day moving average, which is positive. Also, has the 16 week relative low, sort of converging. All these things are converging, where the risk/reward sets you up in a good situation. The upside, compared to the downside, is a lot greater. On a long-term basis, some of the indicators are starting to roll over.
This is starting to get back into the post-recession levels at the $3 range. A lot of the indicators are very oversold. When you have something that is oversold, it doesn’t mean that it can’t continue to be oversold. Looks like it is going to probe some of the low levels in 2008-2009 and the high $1’s and the low $2’s. Anything in that area is good if you are a long-term investor.
Energy. Technicals broke down through the $70’s and have reached a new low in the $67 area. He got out of all his energy stocks by the end of June-beginning of July. Still had some service companies connected to the business and hung onto those because he felt it was more of a price issue on the producers. However, once he got into September, they started acting a little odd. The TSX Energy Index has now moved back into oversold territory, so the herd mentality is decidedly negative. As we retest what looks like October lows, he thinks we are close to finding a bottom and we are getting back to the 2010-2011 levels. At this point, the risk/reward to sort of dabble in energy looks pretty good.