Chief Portfolio Manager & Founder at Castlemoore Inc.
Member since: Jan '07 · 2206 Opinions
Watch the U.S. 10 year bond yield since it is the biggest instrument in the investment world. The bond market is much bigger than the equity markets. Many things are tied to it: mortgages, annuities, etc. Bond yields and the growth parts of the equity markets go in opposite directions. If rates start rising again this would probably affect the stock markets again. He feels rates could go higher since inflation is still higher than it was two years ago. Only the rate of the increase in inflation has slowed down. We haven't seen the impact of higher interest rates yet since everything has been smoothed out through credit.
The 50 year chart for the 10 year bond market shows that we are in new territory. If the 10 year bond yield goes to 3.9 or below, it could be bullish for markets but could also affect the view on recession and lead to a hard landing.
Expect a flood of borrowing by the U.S. government in the years to come - and Canada too.
The utility space has been in a downtrend but is coming back up to trend. Don't be long with the possibility of rates going up.
It is good to pay more for a stock when it is moving higher to its breakout level or even higher since this confirms an accurate thesis. If it pushes through its breakout level then the higher price can become the new breakout level. Upward momentum is good.
The question was on what technical indicators to use. Two basics are the 125 and 50 day moving averages used by lots of trading desks. His favourite is a Japanese system called Ichimoku where you get lots of data in one picture. It easily identifies a bull or bear market.
Exxon Mobil is offering 2.3 of its own shares for Pioneer, valuing PXD at $253 per share in a $60 billion all stock deal. Exxon is down somewhat. The energy space is looking good.
Technology in Canada has been number 1 over the last month and number 2 over the last week. Converge hasn't participated in the long term tech trend. It has had a decent bounce recently but he is not sure if its downward trend is over. He doesn't know its fundamentals but feels there are better places to be in tech.
He bought an initial position recently but is waiting now before buying more on a longer term basis. It needs to prove itself and move to the top end of its range. It had some good fundamental news recently
It has been oscillating up and down with big swings. The sector is interesting and is good to look at if rates go higher. A deflationary theme will cause it to reprice.
He bought it for a trade so has sold it. If you own it you could hold or trim some. Also you could buy it at the $250 mark.
It has 2 business lines: Gotham the service part and Foundry the mining data part, AI etc. It has a lot more to go because it has the ability to change its pricing and is now compartmentalized. It is well positioned for the long term. His favourite way to pick up stocks is when they move sideways - or on a pullback.
It is one of the best asset managers. Buying an asset manager is a good way to have someone else do this type of work and make good calls for you.
It is OK on the monthlies but financials haven't done too much and there are better places to be. You could own TD or Royal Bank for the long term but don't buy for a trade since it could head down.
He is uncertain as to whether to add to it but is interested. It has been in a downward trend with a recent upturn. It is showing a reverse head and shoulders which is a good sign.
The charts show it is coming off the bottom but is still in a long term downward trend. He is not sure if the recent uptrend is meaningful yet.
It has had a recent drop with the acquisition. The basing pattern interests him especially if the dividend holds, but he prefers Pembina Pipelines and others in this space,.