Expects more volatility. We're jumping from data point to data point. Every time something's announced, the markets take that as an indicator of what's next to come. This morning we got ADP numbers from the US at 497K, with the estimate being 225K, wildly higher. This number measures the private sector estimate of job growth in the US.
These things create volatility, and that's what we're seeing in markets. The broad market TSX index is up 3-5% YTD, and the S&P's up 15%. These numbers don't really tell the whole story, as we have some really high flyers in both the TSX and the S&P. SHOP is up around 78% YTD, CSU is up in the 40% range. Then you have NVDA and TSLA in the US that are really driving a big part of those returns. Underneath that, you have a broad market that's really quite volatile.
We'll continue to see volatility until we get some clarity from the Fed and other central banks on interest rates.
He ratcheted up his fixed income, and is staying short duration, but hasn't moved a lot in there. If the inflation numbers start to trend down below 3%, the Fed will be reasonably satisfied with that. This is going to take time to churn through. We just have to wait and see how the economy reacts to 5.5% overnight lending rates.
Consumers seem to be very resilient on spending, but that's going to wear thin in time. That's when we're going to feel more comfortable, when the Fed and other central banks see an end to the hiking cycle.
He got it a bit wrong too. He anticipated China to come back much earlier, and clearly that hasn't happened. Still thinks it's possible. China's cut interest rates and there are other measures to come to stimulate that economy. They do need to stimulate the economy, which would in turn drive the resource-centric Canadian economy.
Likes it. It's an inflation story. Some consumers are gravitating away from restaurants and back to buying their own food, so it's a volume story too. Good place to be. Trading at a reasonable 15x earnings, not overly expensive. If you think we're getting into a mild recession, which might be prolonged, this is a safe bet.
With recently reported quarterly sales up 28% (to all time highs) and EPS up 83%, we reiterate LNR as a TOP PICK. Global market share is growing as are cash reserves. It trades at 10x earnings and under book value. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $54) to $60, looking to achieve $87 -- upside potential over 20%. Yield 1.2%
(Analysts’ price target is $87.80)