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Markets. QE ending is one thing but what you have to focus on is how banks around the world are focused on keeping bond rates low. Don’t expect mortgage rates to spike higher. Europe is coming out of the recession. They are two years behind the US, who are not growing as fast as everyone expects them to do. This cycle could be 5-10 years. For energy stocks and most commodities, you need positive GDP growth and growing global demand. But the world is becoming more efficient at burning oil. A lot of the money he manages has a dividend mandate. He is not moving away from them. He has moved a little down market cap, though.

BUY

It is a renters stock. Every month there is something to get worried or excited about. Had some exciting news recently about a joint venture with a Chinese company for 1.3 Billion. It is a ‘Put’ stake. That is why it is up a $1.50 in the last two trading weeks. They will continue to spend a lot of money drilling. Management has had to jump through a lot of huddles over the last couple of years and the market is still leary. It could have upside to $12-$13 but there is always something that could bring it back down. Now may not be a bad time to look at it though.

COMMENT

If keystone does not get approved then Canada needs to move oil to the east or south. The east coast pipeline will be a reality and most of the cost will be born by TRP. You will see gas prices out east come down. We will be decreasing imports of oil from off shore. There will be lots of little hurdles as it tries to go through towns.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They have been the blue chip gem amongst the 5 we have in Canada. Their main project, the oil sands project has some of the best oil ratios. They had a little hiccup in their operations which is a buying opportunity. They used to be the go to name that would not have hiccups but now it has reversed. It is a great core holding under $30. 4% dividends and 6% growth.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Never been a core holding but has traded it and after a recent meeting is comfortable telling his people to keep an eye on it. Struggling with some operational issues in Albania which is behind them. If you can buy it down here around NAV level he would be okay buying it.

HOLD

He trimmed it from 3.5% down to 2. Still pays a nice dividend. Worries market might look a little forward and see margins drop due to rail capacity coming on line. Maybe the growth in rail is over. Low $20s is where you want to buy it and $26 and change is where you want to trim it.

BUY

International operator. He owns it to diversify himself and get Brent crude pricing. A core holding for him for 10 years. Likes it here. Buy at $50 if you can.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Oct 26/12, Down 19.68%) Liquid rich Nat Gas.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Oct 26/12, Up 8.90%) Small companies are not just looking at what the market wants. They are looking at completion. You can shrug off the last quarter and see it as a buying opportunity. Spot Canadian gas has dropped a dollar. Still likes it. It is just time and gas prices.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Oct 26/12, Up 18.31%) Could have been a top pick again. Low cost producer. Wishes they had a dividend. They own the biggest land position in the deep basin so would be attractive to a larger company that needed land.

WAIT

It has gone down because of the gas trade. They are all down 10%. They came out with a quarter that was neutral. Gas prices are down and the market thinks it could be 6 months.

RISKY

A small cap. They have decline rates on their wells of 60-70%. It is a great package of assets for a bigger company but when you are small there is not much room for another 10 wells. They were supposed to do a merger and that got unraveled. One of the cheapest stocks in Canada but they need to find someone with a bigger pocket book to JV with.

BUY

A massive disappointment for the street. There is a strategic review right now. They have a great asset, a low decline asset but they are saddled with a lot of debt. It is going to be tough for someone to make this work. Eventually the price will get cheap enough that it can be taken out. He has a very small amount to be sold for tax loss selling.

WEAK BUY

He can get US exposure with smaller companies. He doesn’t need to use this one to get into the US. This is one he would use if he needed the high yield of 10% but it will go sideways in terms of growth.

BUY

Has been trimming it recently. They changed their business model for investment bankers but he thinks the easy money has been made in it. If you can get it at $7.50, he would not rush the exit but above $8.50, you should trim it. Nice dividend. It will be fairly flat for the next year.