COMMENT
Market has been on a one way run since Aug/10. You would have thought natural disasters and higher oil prices would have had an impact but the market keeps chugging along. In spit of strong job numbers, good balance sheets, etc., she feels headwinds are increasing. 1) QE2 will come to an end in June 2) beginning of the tightening cycle 3) ECB interest rates went up this week 4) Bank of Canada rates will likely go up towards the end of summer, 5) Fed will probably go up early next year and 6) dampening of consumer growth because of higher prices.
HOLD
Have had some challenges over the past several quarters particularly in their US business. They made an acquisition about 3 years ago. Took a 2nd $50 million dollar write down on it last year. Small part of their business and not affecting their EBITDA but is making headline news. Cdn business remains very stable. A yield play at 7.5%.
HOLD
One of the biggest real estate REITs in the country. Very strong franchise in the big-box stand alone REITs. High quality company. US retail companies coming into Canada is positive for REITS as there is not a lot of unspoken for space. She has been paring a little of her REIT exposure.
COMMENT
Good company. New management about 18 months ago. Straightening out some of the mess. Good management. A little concerned about possible cost over runs and operational issues on their SAGD project in Lindburg. 6% yield.
DON'T BUY
Generally likes the banking group. Dividend increase is expected later this year. Their international operations are a good platform for growth and they are making good inroads and making market share. A little expensive relative to the rest of the banks.
BUY
Benefiting from a strong increase in activity the western Canadian sedentary basin as well as the US. Very strong in terms of rig count and activity. There is a lot of focus on drilling with oil going through $100. Doesn’t anticipate that they will reinstate a dividend soon.
TOP PICK
Energy infrastructure play. Basically have a balance between power, gas and utility. Benefiting from Alberta’s leverage to power prices. With Transalta (TA-T) bringing down its Sundance plant, supply dynamics has tightened up. Also benefiting from strong frac spreads. Very visible growth opportunities for the next several years. Goal is to double EBITDA by 2016. 5% yield.
TOP PICK
Attractive cash flow story. Free cash flow is slated to grow by 20% in 2011 and about 30% in 2012. Cheap at about 13X EPS. 3.2% dividend yield.
TOP PICK
Waste management. Very defensive. Recession resistant. Very strong track record of growth, both organically and by acquisition.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 25/09. Up 83.18%.)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 25/09. Up 67.23%.) High quality REIT. Big Bow project problems in Calgary are basically behind them. Will come on towards the end of this year with an Encana (ECA-T) lease. This is the only REIT with a visible distribution increase and have increases slated for the next 6 quarters. Still a Buy.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 25/09. Down 3.42%.) Still likes.
COMMENT
Market. If TSX gets its head above the $4,300 level, he sees a continuation of the upward trend. Breakout started around the end of August. The little dip that occurred this year was at the 100-day moving average and was quite normal. 100-day moving average is a clear support line.
COMMENT
Gold. Chart looks a little like the TSX with the rally going on. It’s a positive trend. The 1% movement today is really encouraging. We are back were gold had a previous high. Buy gold and wait before it goes below the 100-day moving average and then get out.
BUY
Silver. Very good trend right now. Moving along with all the commodities. Unlike gold, it is actually used for industrial purposes. When it loses momentum, don’t sell right away.