Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM

Everybody gets enthusiastic about something, whether it's a particular stock or a type of trade, and then it unwinds. There's an ebb and a flow. We haven't seen that yet, but there's definitely a divergence. If you follow technical analysis, you may know about Dow Theory and the differences between Industrials and Transportation.

If we look at divergences between different markets, such as US versus international, US is up almost 30% and the others are up 5-10%. The S&P 500 is doing really well. There's even an index with the top 10 from the S&P, and it's up 10% over the base index. That divergence is focused on a few stocks, with NVDA being a key one that everyone's talking about all the time.

He can explain this using technical analysis, which looks for trends and reversals. Right now, we're in a positive trend, and it's a positive trend with a reversal in October 2023. If you're not making 20-30% from then till now, you may want to reevaluate.

It's been a great market, there's no indication of a reversal yet. Technical analysts wait for a reversal before they jump; they don't say to sell just because the markets are the highest they've ever been. If you look at when markets have been high in the past, they usually go higher.

Depends on how it looks. Looking at the reversal of 24 March 2020, there are some times when there are sharp reversals or recoveries and a ton of volatility. Right now what he's looking for is a flaming out, lower momentum. We've already seen lower momentum in that buying isn't as steep, the prices don't go up as fast (still going up, but without the same acceleration).

This is the beginning of an indicator, but doesn't necessarily mean there's going to be a turnaround. Many times in the past, we've seen the setup but the market continues higher.

Started the year at $520, then lost 50% of its value. Starting a recovery, but losing steam. A possibility, but be very careful. Not a lot of volume on the buying, certainly not as much as on the downside. Don't take a big position, $300 would be a good place to get out.

Multi-year drop. Trading in a narrow range, between $80-100, and closer to the low end. Lots of resistance around $100. Avoid, or possibly trade. Could easily drop to $80, don't want it to go below that.

Upward trend goes all the way back to 2013. Very strong stock. Adding at these prices seems daunting, but it is breaking to new highs (a good thing) and could consolidate (come back a bit). Lots of consolidation since July around $4400. No indicator of a turnaround, so you can continue adding.

To add to a current position, plenty of support around $4400. For a new buyer, taking a position now wouldn't be the end of the world. If you're looking to start reducing, it has to drop below $4200.

Pitfalls would include chasing or buying too much. Other risks are not following it and not having a plan. Acceleration is really strong. Good volume along with the buying, which is supportive. Reaching a bit of a limit right now, which may be profit taking, and may pull back to $110. A drop below $105 with a full position is a problem.

Record highs were in 2021. RSI is a very short-term indicator, comparing today's price to where it's been in the last 14 days; right now, pretty close to the top. Doing well again today, but how long can this be sustained? A very jumpy stock. Could suffer a pretty big pullback to the high $200 level very quickly, about a 20% drop. Support level at $280. Valuations are difficult. 

Be very careful. Don't place big bets, not a candidate for 10% or more of your portfolio. If you think it's going higher, you might consider buying some options, which would reduce your overall risk to some degree.

Looks good right now, taking a pause. Chart looks great, now in a consolidation phase (very normal). Very tight trading range around $285-290. Touching $280, which is short-term support, a good sign for taking a position. Your exit strategy should kick in if drops below $275. Dividend is a bonus, so you can afford to hold before it goes up again.

Once it hits $300-310, you know it's going higher and can build on your position.

Looks good fundamentally. Long-term chart shows an upward trend, and then it's gone sideways for the last couple of years. Average price of $156 for that sideways consolidation phase. These bigger, more predictable companies can go sideways for years. Not bad for dividends. For Canadian investors, almost a must-own stock.

Short-term trading range is about $148 to $174. We're closer to the lower level now. Not a bad time to buy. Expectations should be tempered to 10%, or $15, over the next year.

(Note the short timeframe.)
Still likes it. One of his largest positions.

(Note the short timeframe.)
Still holds it, probably won't be selling; he'll wait and see. Has done well because of AI. Could move up and down around this range for a while before it breaks out to the upside. Definitely in the sideways phase.

(Note the short timeframe.)
Outperformed NVDA. Continues to outperform. Earnings earlier this year got him into the stock, and recent earnings are keeping him in. Becoming one of his bigger positions.

Stock price actually incorporates all the news. Stock hit a peak earlier in February; since then, trading right around $78 plus or minus $5. This consolidation could go on for a long time. Before you can ID the next trend, you have to wait for it to break out -- below $73 or above $85. 

You can buy this now for diversification, but it won't be anything exciting. Keep an eye on that lower level. If it dropped below $70, then $60 or below is quite possible. You can discount the news as not important. Stock's been almost a double over the past 2 years.

Not doing too much right now. Starting to trend higher, was $150 in 2022. Short term, nice upward trend; we're hitting breakeven on the year, outside of dividends. If it can get back up to $145-150, good possibility it could catch up to the better-performing banks. He owns CM and TD.