
VP & Portfolio Manager, Chief Investment Officer at Castlemoore Inc.
Member since: Nov '06 · 1375 Opinions
Concerning the whole market he sees smaller and mid cap companies operating a little differently and not as over-valued as the market in general, even with its decline up until Friday. There is a reversal of the enthusiasm in the markets, but with an overhang of enthusiasm especially with the larger companies. The market hit a high in January and he has seen a decline since then even before the Iran war. He feels momentum has been completely lost. It looks like a classic reversal pattern. Usually you see a 30% drop from the high point in a major downturn. There are issues such as rising interest rates and inflation especially with the war in Iran. We don't know where the price of oil is going.
It has dropped from $40 to just under $22 including a 10% drop after its last report and is trading below its long term support level. Things have changed fundamentally since before 6 months to a year ago and there is some concern about the debt level being serviced. It hasn't been this low in a long time.
There is a correlation with financial institutions in the country and internationally and it shows in the chart. He doesn't see a ton of buying volume. It is a similar situation to Royal Bank and is highly connected to the stock market index. He sees some support but wouldn't put new money into it at this point. Banks are definitely a long term holding even though every ten years they can go through a big drop from their highs.
It is in a very difficult space like Biotech. It dropped 10% in a day after the earnings report and continued its downward trend after a small rally. It is very weak now and hitting new lows that haven't been seen in a while. It is technically negative so be cautious. He thinks there is more downside.
They also sell snacks which was part of the growth story, but the growth story didn't work. He has an exit strategy for stocks, especially top picks. His reduce price was $29 and he sold at a loss. Investors should not keep holding losing stocks and should have an exit strategy.
He doesn't have any direct holdings in energy. Since 2022 it has been in a trading pattern around $64 with a high of $71 and a low of $54. It has rallied quickly because of the Iran war. However he wouldn't buy it since he thinks it would still trade in that consolidation range. If owned, he would hold. The world wants the war in Iran to be resolved quickly.