TOP PICK
About 73% of cash flow comes from regulated revenue streams. 6.7% dividend yield.
TOP PICK
10.625% Bonds due July 15/15. One of the largest heavy discount US retailers. No sales over $10. Because of the recession, same-store sales have been fantastic and growing about 8%-10%.
TOP PICK
Discount retailer where you can buy anything under $10. Growing their store base by about 10% and same-store sales.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 8/08. Up 62.69%.)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 8/08. Up 31.93%.)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 8/08. Sold at $22 so he was Up 31.3%.)
DON'T BUY
Appliance/furniture retailer. Sales have fallen. Had more liquidity pumped into it, primarily from Fairfax Financial (FFH-T) including a recent $25 million line of credit giving more breathing space. Housing starts/recovery in Canada seems to go against what is happening in the US, which gives him pause.
BUY
Possibly will be able to retain distributions after 2011.
BUY
Possibly will be able to retain distributions after 2011.
BUY
Almost 13% dividend, which should be sustainable.
COMMENT
49.8% stake in 3 pulp mills in BC. Stronger pulp prices for the last 6 to 9 months have helped them. Thinks that trend will continue. Conservative payout ratio at about 70%.
SELL
Had several issues in the past dealing with debt but have recently resolved some of that. Worries about some of the US states that have laid off 53,000 teachers. Cutbacks could also occur in bussing.
DON'T BUY
Have a more aggressive payout policy so he is a little concerned about post-2011. Also concerned about the Alberta economy, which is 70% natural gas and is still very weak. Also making acquisitions in the US.
TOP PICK
S&P 500 Short Term Futures ETN (Exchange Traded Note). Trades like the volatility index (VIX). To diversify from risks associated with equities. Volatility is probably the best tool. Trades at 5X volatility of equities and moves inverse to equity most of the time. Use as a hedge with no more than 5% of a portfolio. On a correction this will go up and that's when you take profits.
TOP PICK
Currency Share Canadian Dollar ETF. Just tracks the value of the US$. Thinks the Cdn$ will rally against the US$ and will probably be above par in the 1st quarter of next year. That would probably be the trigger to sell. (Also has options so you could do covered calls.)