Stock Opinions by Richard Croft - Stockchase Experts
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Richard Croft @

On Stockchase since : Dec 2004

President at R.N. Croft Financial Group Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Richard Croft - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 19, 2019

Walmart's numbers were very good today, signalling that the U.S. consumer is healthier than we thought in December 2018. That challenges the idea that the American economy was doing well last year until September. But he doesn't any stock that pulls back in the last minutes of a trading day, but he likes Walmart for the long term. Compared to Amazon whose multiple can't be justified on a retail model. (He owns Amazon.) We've never done deleveraging on the scale that the US Fed has done, like it is now. The December rate rise in December was probably a rookie mistake by Powell. He's sure there won't be a rate hike this year. We'll be in a trading range until the US and China sign a trade deal which will be the next catalyst--and it's partially built into the market already. Conversely, we'll see a major sell-off if there's no deal.
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Walmart's numbers were very good today, signalling that the U.S. consumer is healthier than we thought in December 2018. That challenges the idea that the American economy was doing well last year until September. But he doesn't any stock that pulls back in the last minutes of a trading day, but he likes Walmart for the long term. Compared to Amazon whose multiple can't be justified on a retail model. (He owns Amazon.) We've never done deleveraging on the scale that the US Fed has done, like it is now. The December rate rise in December was probably a rookie mistake by Powell. He's sure there won't be a rate hike this year. We'll be in a trading range until the US and China sign a trade deal which will be the next catalyst--and it's partially built into the market already. Conversely, we'll see a major sell-off if there's no deal.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$0.000
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Unknown

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BUY
Caterpillar(CAT-N) 

February 19, 2019

Call option? CAT should rally if the China-US trade deal is signed. If you sell a call option on CAT, go 5-8% out. A deal is only partially priced in now.
machinery
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Call option? CAT should rally if the China-US trade deal is signed. If you sell a call option on CAT, go 5-8% out. A deal is only partially priced in now.
machinery
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$135.800
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
HBP Comex Gold ETF(HUG-T) 

February 19, 2019

He's not a gold bug. If you believe gold is a hedge, then buy a hedge using gold companies. But he doesn't think gold is the crisis insurance that many believe. He's never held more than 5% gold in a portfolio.
E.T.F.'s
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He's not a gold bug. If you believe gold is a hedge, then buy a hedge using gold companies. But he doesn't think gold is the crisis insurance that many believe. He's never held more than 5% gold in a portfolio.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$11.890
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 19, 2019

How long should you hold a covered cold after a stock goes ex-dividend? Say you buy a stock on Monday and sold covered calls on the same day. The stock hits $36 and you sell covered calls at $32. The next day is the ex-dividend day. On Tuesday morning 9 am, the stock is not been sold, so you re-purchase the covered call then sell the stock. On Thursday, he was told he must re-purchase the stock and shouldn't have sold it. The only reason you couldn't sell it the next day is if the optioned was exercised and the stock was taken from you; you shouldn't learned this on Tuesday morning. This is the dividend capture program. The challenge with this is if the dividend is large, then the person who bought the call has the right to exercise it--and if he does this on the ex-dividend date, then he owns the stock and captures the dividend. Such a move doesn't have much time value. Apparently, you didn't know you had lost it. Talk to your broker/firm.
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How long should you hold a covered cold after a stock goes ex-dividend? Say you buy a stock on Monday and sold covered calls on the same day. The stock hits $36 and you sell covered calls at $32. The next day is the ex-dividend day. On Tuesday morning 9 am, the stock is not been sold, so you re-purchase the covered call then sell the stock. On Thursday, he was told he must re-purchase the stock and shouldn't have sold it. The only reason you couldn't sell it the next day is if the optioned was exercised and the stock was taken from you; you shouldn't learned this on Tuesday morning. This is the dividend capture program. The challenge with this is if the dividend is large, then the person who bought the call has the right to exercise it--and if he does this on the ex-dividend date, then he owns the stock and captures the dividend. Such a move doesn't have much time value. Apparently, you didn't know you had lost it. Talk to your broker/firm.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$0.000
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Unknown

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BUY
Online purchases equal less than 20% sales during Christmas, but thinks this level will rise over time--big upside here. IBUY is a very good buy.
E.T.F.'s
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Online purchases equal less than 20% sales during Christmas, but thinks this level will rise over time--big upside here. IBUY is a very good buy.
E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$47.830
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

February 19, 2019

He bought a $175 July call for $8 and sold twice as many $190 July expiry. That's a ratio call spread: he bought a call at a lower strike price and sold twice as many calls at a higher strike price; his higher strike was $190. So if Apple trades up to $190, he starts losing money. He's got no money out of his pocket because he brought in enough money from the sale of two options. That long option will benefit all the way to $190. It's a good trade, but keep an eye on it. He doesn't normally like that with a volatile company, because specific events can make that stock rise dramatically. That said, he understands why one would do this with AAPL, but not with Netflix or Facebook.
electrical/electronic
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He bought a $175 July call for $8 and sold twice as many $190 July expiry. That's a ratio call spread: he bought a call at a lower strike price and sold twice as many calls at a higher strike price; his higher strike was $190. So if Apple trades up to $190, he starts losing money. He's got no money out of his pocket because he brought in enough money from the sale of two options. That long option will benefit all the way to $190. It's a good trade, but keep an eye on it. He doesn't normally like that with a volatile company, because specific events can make that stock rise dramatically. That said, he understands why one would do this with AAPL, but not with Netflix or Facebook.
electrical/electronic
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$170.930
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
A very good holding at 10-15% in a portfolio. XEI creates healthy cash flow, given the dividends flowing consistently.
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A very good holding at 10-15% in a portfolio. XEI creates healthy cash flow, given the dividends flowing consistently.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$20.660
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 19, 2019

Where should a new investor start in today's market with a troubled outlook? He's never found a great time to invest in all his career. So, start--as a balanced investor--and buy the TSX 60 index with XIU, then SPY, XBB and XSB at 25% each, so that you buy the Canadian economy, bonds and the S&P 500.
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Where should a new investor start in today's market with a troubled outlook? He's never found a great time to invest in all his career. So, start--as a balanced investor--and buy the TSX 60 index with XIU, then SPY, XBB and XSB at 25% each, so that you buy the Canadian economy, bonds and the S&P 500.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Up 2%) Likes it. Banking had a bump in Q4, but it's coming back. A good long-term hold because of their dividends. Good cash flow. Banks will increase their dividends.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Up 2%) Likes it. Banking had a bump in Q4, but it's coming back. A good long-term hold because of their dividends. Good cash flow. Banks will increase their dividends.
E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$28.960
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Down 0.4%) Small caps have outperformed since the year started, so he likes this. OUSM takes advantage of the new tax breaks in the U.S. because the top companies within it do. Small caps are more aggressive and should be part of a portfolio.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Down 0.4%) Small caps have outperformed since the year started, so he likes this. OUSM takes advantage of the new tax breaks in the U.S. because the top companies within it do. Small caps are more aggressive and should be part of a portfolio.
E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$26.780
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Down 1%) Half of this are the FAANGs which took a bigger than deserved hit.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Jul 03/18, Down 1%) Half of this are the FAANGs which took a bigger than deserved hit.
E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$137.130
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Goldcorp Inc(G-T) 

February 19, 2019

Today's merger with Newmont Mining Synergies will improve their margins. But he would sell--he doesn't like gold in general and this is a selling opportunity.
precious metals
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Today's merger with Newmont Mining Synergies will improve their margins. But he would sell--he doesn't like gold in general and this is a selling opportunity.
precious metals
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$14.880
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
He think interest rates will be cut this year and would buy $130 calls on TLT. He doesn't see a rate cut, but if you do then buy the calls. These are portfolio bonds with a 20-year term. The duration is 17 on this ETF, so a 1% drop in rates means should translate into a 17% hike in the ETF's value. Yes, do it.
E.T.F.'s
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He think interest rates will be cut this year and would buy $130 calls on TLT. He doesn't see a rate cut, but if you do then buy the calls. These are portfolio bonds with a 20-year term. The duration is 17 on this ETF, so a 1% drop in rates means should translate into a 17% hike in the ETF's value. Yes, do it.
E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$122.290
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
The problem with high-yield bonds are junk bonds, but XHY has held up well. If you don't believe we'll fall into recession, high-yields will perform well. That said, he'd rather buy blue-chip stocks or their convertible debentures.
E.T.F.'s
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The problem with high-yield bonds are junk bonds, but XHY has held up well. If you don't believe we'll fall into recession, high-yields will perform well. That said, he'd rather buy blue-chip stocks or their convertible debentures.
E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$18.950
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Water has more value than oil, long term. Likes this. A good counterbalance to oil in a portfolio.
E.T.F.'s
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Water has more value than oil, long term. Likes this. A good counterbalance to oil in a portfolio.
E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$34.200
Owned Owned
Unknown

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