TOP PICK
(A Past Top Pick Jan 23/07. Up 57.7%.) Doing about 25,000 BOE's per day out of the Brenda/Nicol play and doing cash flow of about $2. Will be bringing on the Shelley play this year and more stuff around Brenda/Nicol and should be about 50,000 barrels by the end of 08. In 09 looking for them to bring on Huntington as well as other plays with Nexen (NXY-T). Sees cash flow greater than today's stock price by the end of 09 or 10.
TOP PICK
Involved with Reliance Industries to bring on a play D-6 that will ramp up to 50,000 barrels a day and then will bring on about 2.5/2.6 of gas. When that comes on, it will be over 400 million a day equivalent and generating over $11 of cash flow. Use any weakness to Buy.
TOP PICK
They have had 3 successes so far. Thinks cash flow in 2011/2012 is greater than today's stock price.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Past Top Pick Jan 23/07. Down 11.1%.) Really likes the story. About 50/50 in oil/gas. Buying out Exalta Energy (EXA-T), which will take them to about 20,000 BOE's a day compared to 8600 in 2006. Have high impact wells that are affected by the Alberta legislation. Expecting cash flow of about $3.20 at the end of 08. Very cheap. Balance sheet in good shape. Hold.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Past Top Pick Jan 23/07. Down 24%.) 71% natural gas. Doing about 3400 BOE’s a day and could go north of 4400. Thinks they will do over $2 in cash flow sold stock is trading at 2X cash flow. $56 million debt, about 2X cash flow, which is why it has not recovered as quickly as others. NAV in the 3rd quarter of 07 was over $8 a share. Hold.
COMMENT
He is in the camp that believes natural gases will firm up by the 4th quarter of 09. Think they will exceed 5500 BOE's a day by the end of 08 and generating about $.70 in cash flow, so is trading about 2X cash flow. NAV is about $2.60. Balance sheet is in pretty good shape.
DON'T BUY
Drilling in Thailand. Doesn't cover this one and doesn't know enough about the size and quality of reservoirs. Have some fabulous wells. If they keep on having the same success, it could go on a lot higher. A one-play story in one country. He prefers 2 or 3 different countries or bases.
COMMENT
Company is paying out about 50% of their cash flow. If natural gas prices recover to $9 in Q4 of 08 and prices firming up from their, then royalty trusts should see significant upside. Distribution should be safe.
DON'T BUY
Natural gas. This one has been troublesome. Missed their numbers even after the acquisition of the Bow Valley’s (BVX-T) assets. Change that the Alberta government has put through is a negative.
BUY
Load up the truck. This is so cheap. It's a lot of oil, international, Malaysia, Vietnam, North Sea, Canada for gas. It may take 2 years for the markets to realize the value of these companies.
BUY
Very attractive. At some point, the large international companies will be looking to get into countries where they have more security of supply and where there is upside in the drill bit. It may take 2 years for the markets to realize the value of these companies.
COMMENT
This company is going to be taken over by Chinese interests at $1.60 in cash sometime in February.
HOLD
Doing about 5000 BOE’s a day and will be growing to 10,000. Have been adding to their production in Albania. CEO of Rally Energy (RAL-T) will be coming on and this move the stock a lot higher. Also doing steam flood to get higher recovery. Will probably spin off US tight gas assets into a separate company.
BUY
Offshore Trinidad discovery is significant with 600 BCF’s. Thinks they have 1/3 of this play. Now testing one more zone in that play so the news could get even better. Potentially there could be 3 TCF here. Over the next year there is a lot of high impact drilling.
HOLD
Has done well since the merger with Real Resources. Operationally, management is very confident. Have assets in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Has a mix of oil and gas. Good balance sheet.