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Stock Opinions by Josef Schachter

COMMENT
Bull run for energy stocks. This cycle is more pronounced because of the issues in Ukraine. In March 2020, we started a new energy bull market, based on the interest in renewables and EVs. We needed to find a lot of lithium, copper and nickel, which would need a lot of capex and a lot of fossil fuels. With cutting off Russia from selling oil, we're in a super-cycle for commodities that probably has 4-5 more years to go. Money will have to be spent to bring on natural gas and LNG. Since March 2020, crude oil price has gone up over 4x, nat gas even higher, and S&P TSX Energy Index over 5x. So it's been a fabulous sector for investors.
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COMMENT
Bearish on price of oil? He's cautious. Historically, when you have these very powerful bull markets, you have corrections along the way. We'll see record oil prices 4-5 years from now, we've had a fabulous run, and he sees the likelihood in 2022 of $150 US a barrel for oil if weapons of mass destruction are used and Russia is prevented from selling oil and natural gas. He sees a recession ahead. CPIs and PPIs are really high. Central bankers are raising the price of money and removing the liquidity. Don't fight the Fed. He sees an economic slowdown by Q3, and that's when the higher price will end as we try to beat inflation up over the next couple of quarters.
Unknown
BUY
Done exceedingly well, near record highs. Still has a long way to go. LNG Canada will benefit it. A lot of drilling will have to happen in Alberta and BC to bring on significant new volume for the export market. A core name for your portfolio.
oil / gas
BUY
Focused on nat gas that's a big beneficiary of LNG. A 9-bagger from March 2020. Great strategic acquisitions. Only cloud on the horizon is the BC First Nations issue. One of the best managed in the sector.
oil / gas
WEAK BUY
Focused on making its environmental footprint as positive as it can be, and the team has done a good job. Paying down debt, and once it does that you'll see moderate growth and shareholder returns.
oil / gas
BUY
One of the largest fleets of generation 3 and 4 deeper coil tubing. Two businesses: coil tubing and tools. Both are being run efficiently. Margin pressure in the sector. Great little story that will be a big beneficiary of LNG drilling. No debt. 5-year bull market target of $3. 2023 will be a pivotal year in the LNG sector.
oil / gas
HOLD
Team has done a good job of building and repositioning the company. Started a dividend, paying down debt. More free cash will let them grow the business, do tuck-in acquisitions, and increase shareholder returns such as a special dividend.
oil / gas
BUY
Really likes it. Mobile drilling rigs in Papua New Guinea with good margins and lucrative business. There will be more contracts. Service business in Canada doing well. Clean balance sheet, working capital surplus. Target price of $5 in the next few years.
oil / gas
HOLD
2B shares, and an equity market value of 118B, the largest of any company he covers. Debt load is 75B. Line 5 gave them more capacity. New facility on the Gulf Coast, so volumes will increase over time.
oil / gas pipelines
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 24/20, Up 1376%) Big beneficiary of nat gas LNG on the west coast. $20 target on it. Will be out of debt by the end of this year, lots of free cashflow, unhedged. Premier company. Potential takeover. A buy on any weakness. He sold on recession concerns.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 24/20, Up 799%) Team has done a fabulous job. Now the largest Canadian nat gas producer. Buy on weakness and hold for 4-5 years. Could potentially be $120-150 if it became a friendly acquisition target. He sold on recession concerns.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 24/20, Up 965%) Favourite oily name. Acquisitions at the right time. Nat gas and carbon capture. Very strong balance sheet, could raise dividend if it wanted or do tuck-in acquisitions. Own for the long term. He sold on recession concerns.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
BUY on WEAKNESS
If you feel the market's had a good run, and that central banks will slow down the economy to get a handle on inflation, then we'll see a global slowdown. Supply chain issues persist. Balance sheet is superb. Hold, or buy on weakness. Because of Ukraine, Canada's become an attractive place for foreign investors.
oil / gas
BUY on WEAKNESS
Working on cleaning up balance sheet. Potentially in the $20s in the next couple of years. 5-year price target of $40. Still a long way to go. Buy on weakness. Free cashflows at today's commodity prices will be spectacular, and this will attract investor attention.
oil / gas
BUY
At record high. Total return security for investors who want a dividend. Dividend should grow 3-5%. A nice core name for a conservative portfolio, expecting 10-15% capital gain potential and a nice, growing dividend. At the right time, he'd consider adding. Yield is 4.9%.
oil / gas pipelines
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