Stock Opinions by Josef Schachter - Stockchase Experts
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Josef Schachter

On Stockchase since : Aug 2003

President at Schachter Asset Management

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Stock Opinions by Josef Schachter - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

April 18, 2019

Thoughts on Jason Kenney as new premier of Alberta. Have to look at the numbers. Rural Alberta went to Kenney, in Edmonton only 1 riding to Kenney, but in Calgary all went to Kenney except for 1 riding. Highest turnout ever. Tagline was "open for business". When gas prices were cheap, Peter Lougheed put restrictions on Sarnia, and they came to heel quickly. So precedent has been set by right-wing governments. Has potential to reduce the deficits. Likely that Alberta will play hardball with BC.
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Thoughts on Jason Kenney as new premier of Alberta. Have to look at the numbers. Rural Alberta went to Kenney, in Edmonton only 1 riding to Kenney, but in Calgary all went to Kenney except for 1 riding. Highest turnout ever. Tagline was "open for business". When gas prices were cheap, Peter Lougheed put restrictions on Sarnia, and they came to heel quickly. So precedent has been set by right-wing governments. Has potential to reduce the deficits. Likely that Alberta will play hardball with BC.
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Why do they have to sell assets? Debt is 65% debt to equity. Cut the dividend. Want to pay down debt by about 1B. In the doghouse right now. Leadership is a question mark, as well as what's a core asset. It's had a bounce, up about 50%. Fabulous recovery. Stocks will cool off in Q2, but will come back in Q4. Dips are windows to buy. Numbers are cheap based on cash flow, but the problem is the debt. May be of interest if it gets below $4.50.
oil/gas
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Why do they have to sell assets? Debt is 65% debt to equity. Cut the dividend. Want to pay down debt by about 1B. In the doghouse right now. Leadership is a question mark, as well as what's a core asset. It's had a bounce, up about 50%. Fabulous recovery. Stocks will cool off in Q2, but will come back in Q4. Dips are windows to buy. Numbers are cheap based on cash flow, but the problem is the debt. May be of interest if it gets below $4.50.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$5.480
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Obsidian Energy(OBE-T) 

April 18, 2019

New interim president and CEO. Pretty good numbers on cardium wells. Issue is the debt. Debt is 22% of equity, but it's going the wrong way. Declining production and volumes. Not as attractive as the others. Need to show they can grow core numbers of the cardium. Guidance is negative. Capex is about equal to cash flow.
oil/gas
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New interim president and CEO. Pretty good numbers on cardium wells. Issue is the debt. Debt is 22% of equity, but it's going the wrong way. Declining production and volumes. Not as attractive as the others. Need to show they can grow core numbers of the cardium. Guidance is negative. Capex is about equal to cash flow.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.430
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Whitecap Resources(WCP-T) 

April 18, 2019

About a 5.6% dividend yield, and they want to follow the dividend model. 84% oil. Sees them having growth in production this year. Really likes it. Target of $8 in 12 months. Prefers Whitecap to Crescent Point.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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About a 5.6% dividend yield, and they want to follow the dividend model. 84% oil. Sees them having growth in production this year. Really likes it. Target of $8 in 12 months. Prefers Whitecap to Crescent Point.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$5.540
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Debt is lower than peers. Equity's going up, debt is going down. Likes the company. He projects 200M in cash flow this year. It's on his watch list. Has a $5 target. If it gets under $2.50, it's a table-pounding buy. It's a buy on weakness, which we might get in Q2.
oil/gas
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Debt is lower than peers. Equity's going up, debt is going down. Likes the company. He projects 200M in cash flow this year. It's on his watch list. Has a $5 target. If it gets under $2.50, it's a table-pounding buy. It's a buy on weakness, which we might get in Q2.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$2.860
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Pengrowth Energy(PGF-T) 

April 18, 2019

If you believe price of oil is not going over $60-70, and if you believe no egress in takeaway capacity, the bear side comes through. A major shareholder just bought more stock. On the value of barrels in the ground, this is like a lottery ticket on oil if it goes to $100. He sees $100 oil on a consistent basis in next few years, but until then the stock will languish.
oil/gas
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If you believe price of oil is not going over $60-70, and if you believe no egress in takeaway capacity, the bear side comes through. A major shareholder just bought more stock. On the value of barrels in the ground, this is like a lottery ticket on oil if it goes to $100. He sees $100 oil on a consistent basis in next few years, but until then the stock will languish.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.550
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Baytex Energy Corp(BTE-T) 

April 18, 2019

Not a fan. Debt level is high at 69%. Narrowing differentials is helping. Management increased its pay package, even though stock is on sale at 2 for 1. This isn't right. When you get your proxy, take a stand and make your vote count.
oil/gas
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Not a fan. Debt level is high at 69%. Narrowing differentials is helping. Management increased its pay package, even though stock is on sale at 2 for 1. This isn't right. When you get your proxy, take a stand and make your vote count.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$2.800
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Husky Energy(HSE-T) 

April 18, 2019

Balance sheet in great shape. Started paying a dividend again. Lots of cash. Good prices on natural gas production. Book value is $19.51. For long-term investors, if the stock goes to $16-17 plus the dividend, that's a pretty good return.
oil/gas
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Balance sheet in great shape. Started paying a dividend again. Lots of cash. Good prices on natural gas production. Book value is $19.51. For long-term investors, if the stock goes to $16-17 plus the dividend, that's a pretty good return.
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$14.490
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 80%) Problem is trying to renegotiate the debt due in the next year or two. So it had to do a restructuring and massive dilution of shares. Still generating cash flow. Sees upside. Could be a $1 stock a year from now. He's going to be adding. Likes management.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 80%) Problem is trying to renegotiate the debt due in the next year or two. So it had to do a restructuring and massive dilution of shares. Still generating cash flow. Sees upside. Could be a $1 stock a year from now. He's going to be adding. Likes management.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.295
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 4%) Pays a dividend. Focused on paying down debt and keeping volumes down. If they pay down debt this year, then in 2020 they can start growing the company. Trading cheaply.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 4%) Pays a dividend. Focused on paying down debt and keeping volumes down. If they pay down debt this year, then in 2020 they can start growing the company. Trading cheaply.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$1.160
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Crew Energy Inc.(CR-T) 

April 18, 2019

(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 36%) Stock is cheap. Book value of $5.76. Believes natural gas prices will be higher in Q4. Natural gas stocks are being thrown away, so there's incredible value there, if you have a 2-3 year time horizon.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Apr 03/18, Down 36%) Stock is cheap. Book value of $5.76. Believes natural gas prices will be higher in Q4. Natural gas stocks are being thrown away, so there's incredible value there, if you have a 2-3 year time horizon.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$1.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Arc Resources Ltd(ARX-T) 

April 18, 2019

Stock is cheap here. Pays a monthly dividend of almost 7%. Book value is $10.39. All natural gas stocks have been beat up. Paid down debt, and equity's gone up. Decent balance sheet. Sitting in the fairway that will benefit from LNG exports 3-4 years from now. Not on his list, but sees the merits of owning it.
oil/gas
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Stock is cheap here. Pays a monthly dividend of almost 7%. Book value is $10.39. All natural gas stocks have been beat up. Paid down debt, and equity's gone up. Decent balance sheet. Sitting in the fairway that will benefit from LNG exports 3-4 years from now. Not on his list, but sees the merits of owning it.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$9.280
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
CNQ vs. SU Suncor has higher dividend. Both big in oil sands. Both generate free cash flow. Suncor's said it will raise dividend and buy back stock. CNQ is also buying back. Suncor performance is much better. Until we get through October federally, and egress gets resolved, foreigners will stay away from Canada.
oil/gas
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CNQ vs. SU Suncor has higher dividend. Both big in oil sands. Both generate free cash flow. Suncor's said it will raise dividend and buy back stock. CNQ is also buying back. Suncor performance is much better. Until we get through October federally, and egress gets resolved, foreigners will stay away from Canada.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$41.940
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

April 18, 2019

SU vs. CNQ Suncor has higher dividend. Both big in oil sands. Both generate free cash flow. Suncor's said it will raise dividend and buy back stock. CNQ is also buying back. Suncor performance is much better. Until we get through October federally, and egress gets resolved, foreigners will stay away from Canada.
integrated oils
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SU vs. CNQ Suncor has higher dividend. Both big in oil sands. Both generate free cash flow. Suncor's said it will raise dividend and buy back stock. CNQ is also buying back. Suncor performance is much better. Until we get through October federally, and egress gets resolved, foreigners will stay away from Canada.
integrated oils
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$44.480
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
40% liquids. Book value is 93 cents, so trades at significant discount. Debt overhang is a concern for growth.
oil/gas
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40% liquids. Book value is 93 cents, so trades at significant discount. Debt overhang is a concern for growth.
oil/gas
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Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.320
Owned Owned
Unknown

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