Throughout the years, indexes and the stocks have gone up and down in random intervals. Recent market highs appear to be breaking records - without a reason. One reason might be due to new investors who don't have a memory of markets crashes from the past. Biggest concern is that market gains are only led by a handful of stocks. However, it appears market strength is broadening out. Traditional stocks are seeing strength despite numerous interest rate hikes. Traditionally, bears have been proven wrong in the total history of American capitalism. However, is a balance between optimism with realistic expectations.
OCGN operates as a small-cap biotech company that focuses on developing novel genes, cell therapies, and vaccines. OCGN generates very limited revenue. OCGN is still burning cash ($62M in the last 12 months), and issuing shares to support its research. The balance sheet has $18M in cash, and, given the burn rate, OCGN should be expected to issue more shares soon. The stock has done very well on early clinical success. But trials are still Phase I/II, and trials are actually quite small. Its focus is on gene therapy with retinal (eye) applications. In such scenarios, stocks are often binary: soaring on good results, crashing on bad results. Insiders own about 2% and have been recent sellers. We do not know this one well enough to recommend but risks need to be considered extremely high.
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TC is down 28% YTD, bringing market cap to $282M. There are no analysts on the company so no estimates. In Q1 sales rose 8.7% and gross profit rose 30.3%. Most divisions showed growth. Cash is $79M but debt is $456M. Strong growth and cost containment at Wavelo helped results. But cash flow was negative in 2023. Considering weak momentum and lots of balance sheet risk, we have a hard time getting excited here about 9% growth and negative cash flow. We are not interested.
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MTW's small size adds risks, and it has a huge amount of debt, at $430M (net) vs only $17M in cash flow in the past 12 months. The stock is reflecting the risks, down 25% this year, but it is priced well at 10X earnings. Control is in the market, and a takeover would make sense. But we do not like investing on that possibility alone. It is profitable, but growth has slowed, and as a cyclical company the balance sheet risk is too much for us to endorse this.
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Market View: Is Inflation Cooling?
The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US rose 2.2% in April, coming in line with market expectations, indicating rate cut may eventually come as inflation gets back to the target level. In addition, the US inflation eases as the consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% in April, in line with expectation but down from 3.5% last month, marking the smallest increase since 2021. The Canadian dollar was 73.5 cents USD. The U.S. S&P500 ended the week up 1.2%, while the TSX was up 0.3%.
It was a mixed week of greens and reds. Materials rose 2.6%, while financials and technology gained 0.5% each. Consumer discretionary edged up by 0.2%. Industrials slid by 1.3%, while energy and real estate gave up 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively. Consume staple ended the week flat. The most heavily traded shares by volume were Tilray Brands, Fission Uranium, and Bitfarms.
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