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Watching for US Treasury announcements this week on quarterly refinancing needs. Appears requirements will be less than originally planned for. Upcoming US Fed meeting will also be indicative of US economy. If US Fed starts to issue more bonds than expected, not a good sign for markets (need to raise capital is bad). Widely expected that US Fed will keep rates flat, and appears rate cuts are on the horizon. Reduction of US Fed balance sheet will also be interesting to watch. Upcoming earnings from big tech companies will be defining on direction of markets (could break momentum of markets).
Educational Segment.
Best place to get growth in portfolio that is not tech oriented is ETF called PAVE. Offers investors an option to get infrastructure spending exposure. As globalization reduces, more spending will occur "at home" in North America. Bricks & mortar staple businesses also provide traditional cash flows. Not a cheap valuation, but would recommend buying on share price weakness. PAVE ETF also pays a nice dividend yield for defensive investors.
SMCI guided higher again, even after doing so already very recently. It is riding a wave of spending, and remains cheap on most metrics and in comparison to peers. The party may not last forever, but it was a solid quarter with a solid outlook, and things look very good right now. The stock is up about 6% after market and is now up about 80% in 2024 alone.
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SFTC has been relatively flat over the last year and part fo the reason could be attributed to lower hardware demand that is forecasted to rebound in 2024. Despite declining revenues in 2023, SMTC's gross profit margins have improved which is a good sign. Growth forecast for the next two years for revenue is quite marginal for revenue over the next two years while EPS growth is similar. We don't see SFTC having a huge growth profile going forward but the stock could still perform well in 2024. We think there are other more intriguing options.
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AEHR gets plenty of its sales from the EV market and demand there has been slowing, which the company has identified in its recent earnings report. AEHR lowered its guidance in its Q2 report which is part of the reason for the large pull back in share prices. The lowered guidance and forecasted demand drop would be the main reason for the decline.
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Case for Owning Equities Over the Long Term:
This might make the prophets of doom quiver a bit. We ran a Bloomberg screen this week, using Jan. 9’s closing market prices, on every stock in North America. The market at that time had been open for a grand total of six trading days, yet we found 21 stocks that were up more than 20 per cent this year, ranging from a high of 106 per cent for Athena Bitcoin Global to 20.6 per cent for Structure Therapeutics Inc. Since we are on the topic of pie-in-the-sky news, how about annualizing those returns? Wow, that would be something.
For our screen, we only used companies with a market capitalization of more than $100 million. The two companies noted above are more than $1 billion each. If we take off our market cap restriction, we get even more early winners.
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Pressures include cash-strapped consumers in China; and some American shave been scared away from Starbucks off by pro-Palestinian protestors who don't realize that Starbucks has no real connection to Israel. IF SBUX's next numbers are weak, the street will conclude that the consumer is trading down from $5 coffee. Wait till their report, though. Is a great brand.