Stockchase Opinions

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF HPYT-T PARTIAL BUY Jan 29, 2024

Covered call bond. Lots of volatility creates excellent yields. Good for income seekers if small portion (diversified). Would recommend for small portion of portfolio. 

$11.810

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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RISKY

Extracting yield from volatility in markets. Difficult to judge outcome of stock for average investor. Would recommend small amount in portfolio for average investor. Not good for retirees. 

HOLD

Portfolio of US treasury bonds. Selling covered calls provides income, but limits upside. Good for dividend investors. MER is a little higher than would prefer. Available in USD version. 

WAIT

Long-dated (20-30 years) bond fund, while using leverage and covered call strategies to enhance income. Doesn't perform well when interest rates go up. Must be confident that rate cuts are coming and pretty aggressively to want to own this. That was supposed to be the case, but now it seems that rate cuts will be pushed back a bit.

Won't start to move until yields start to move and rates start to get cut.

DON'T BUY
17%, too good to be true?

Long US treasuries and writes covered calls to generate income. If you look at the chart, while you've been making 17% in yield, you've lost the equivalent in price terms. You must look at total return. Those that focus on the yield and don't understand the return are doomed to risk. Volatile.

Instead, just hold TLT or ZTL -- US bonds at the long end of the treasury curve -- and don't worry about the yield so much.

COMMENT

A covered call on T-bills. This distribution of 17.21% is suspiciously too high. A few things to consider: you cover-write the bonds here, so you won't capture a bounce in bond prices.

BUY

Wrapper for various covered call ETFs. Gives you more diversification across a number of sectors, while utilizing a covered call strategy for income on 1/3 to 1/2 of the portfolio. He likes that part of the portfolio can breathe to enjoy any upside. Except for tech, most of the other sectors covered are risk-averse.

DON'T BUY

Using call options to generate income on equities and fixed income products. We saw worrying signs a couple of weeks ago that the correlation between the fixed income part of your portfolio and US recession risk may be breaking down. 

Ideally, if there were a recession on the horizon, rate cuts would be forecast and bonds would be purchased. The bond market would go up and there would be a flight to treasuries, all while the stock market's going down. A couple of weeks ago, we saw both bonds and equities going down. With the US launching a trade war against the entire world, investors were trying to get out of US dollar positions. US treasuries may not have the type of cushioning effects you want in the tariff trade war. Short-term instruments are probably better.

DON'T BUY

Holds longer-term bonds with a covered call. Inflation challenges US bond holders and pressures long bonds. So, this ETF is under high pressure. Dividend is 17%.

BUY

Strategy that gets income off the bond market with an option overlay. When you look at the price relative to TLT, it's been down over the last couple of years but the yield has been higher. Total return vs. just owning TLT (plain long bonds without any enhancement) results in doing better with the covered call strategy. Reason is that yields have generally gone up and prices have gone down.

But if it was the other way around, TLT is going to do better.

In a defensive market for bonds you'll get more income off this one, but don't expect much price appreciation. It's an income play. That income is capital gains, which is very tax efficient. Good way to play the bond market, and better in taxable accounts than in registered accounts -- you're getting income from US bonds via capital gains instead of interest.