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COMMENT
Market focus.

He's following the macro inflation data carefully, and that's what's tossing the market around. Both stocks and bonds have been very volatile this year as investors fear higher, more persistent inflation, more rate hikes, and a slowing economy. Sentiment has been swinging quite wildly. 

It comes down to the data. We're seeing inflation come down quite rapidly now YOY. He thinks that's going to continue, and we should hit the target rate of around 2% by year end. The rate hikes are coming to an end.

COMMENT
Effect of rate increases.

He's always been in the camp of a soft landing, and still is. Very strong employment numbers, and as long as people have jobs they're spending money and paying their mortgages. Housing market had a very mild correction. He's not seeing much of a slowdown, except perhaps in durable goods. Services are still trying to catch up from the pandemic, but this should taper off by the end of the year.

Things are slowing down, but we'll see prices coming down and rate hikes coming to an end. 

SELL

Disappointing. TA is taking it private at $13 per share. A good thing, as RNW was paying out all free cashflow in dividends. If you like the company as a whole, there's an option to accept cash plus shares. He'd exit, take the money and run.

HOLD

Very challenging through pandemic. Hit by higher input costs. Took on debt to make acquisitions prior to pandemic. Valuation is massively compressed. Assuming this is the bottom, better days ahead. 

BUY

Sold IP patent portfolio business, used proceeds to pay off debt. Now a pure-play transportation solutions provider, a great business. Leading technology. Record backlog. Great new Board members. Undervalued. Expects a massive re-rating when institutions come back in, especially once new CEO is chosen. Anticipates better execution and financial de-risking.

PARTIAL SELL

Hard to put price targets on high-multiple tech companies. Strong comeback. Economy slowing should not have huge effect on it. If you've made quick money, he'd be tempted to take some profits.

DON'T BUY
Average down?

No. It's probably bottoming here. Difficult to see much upside. Activists want divestitures, keeping it as a pure regulated utility. Very uncertain whether assets can fetch good prices. Renewable multiples have come down dramatically. Put your money elsewhere.

HOLD

At this late stage, there won't be another offer, so you'll have to be happy with $13. Should have received a much higher price. Asbestos litigation costs did them in.

HOLD

Really nice run. Hold on. World leader. Will continue to grow organically or by acquisition for years. Not cheap, but good businesses. Massive infrastructure spend globally. He owns WSP instead.

HOLD

Hold on. World leader. Will continue to grow organically or by acquisition for years. Not cheap, but good businesses. Massive infrastructure spend globally.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 14/22, Up 117%)

Still likes it, tremendously undervalued. Leaders in Canada and US. 6% market share in US, a nascent market. Recently announced 2 significant US contracts. Robust pipeline of states looking to digitize. Trades at barely over 1x revenues. EBITDA positive, improving every quarter. Lots of room still.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 14/22, Down 27%)

Recession proof, high barriers to entry, strong demographic tailwinds. Pullback is a fantastic entry point. Trades at 16x earnings, a big discount to SCI. Possible joint venture with BAM to acquire the #3 US player. Any interest by Brookfield is an endorsement.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 14/22, Up 43%)

Sold off one division for lots of money. Significantly undervalued, worth $60. One of the big banks could come calling. Amazing management. Share buybacks. Huge, regular dividend increases.

WATCH

Interesting business model, gets referrals from insurers. Labour shortages and other issues slowly being addressed. Well managed. He tries to avoid labour-intensive businesses, but he is looking at it.

HOLD

Lingering issues from pandemic should improve. Expects largest shareholding family to buy out minority shareholders at some point. Should see nice jump in sales and profitability over next 12 months.

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