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Latest Top Picks

Stock Opinions by Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBA

DON'T BUY
Richelieu Hardware

He recently sold it around $44, buying earlier around $35-39, because their latest results disappointed. They stocked on products post-Covid due to supply chain problems to gain market share; not a bad strategy. However, they've been stock with costly inventory, so they've had to discount that which really shrinks their margins. Well-managed and consolidate peers well. Long term you will make money, but this go sideways for a while. Zero/no organic growth. Maybe you can buy on dips, if you're long term.

0
BUY
MDA Ltd.

The space economy is booming in telcos and space travel. The only pure-play space company. Lots of runway with double-digit EBITDA growth over 4-5 years. Their technology can launch satellites flexibly as the cost has fallen. He bought it last spring as their backlog grew a lot and their PE declined. One of his biggest holdings. Not a take-out candidate.

electrical / electronic
HOLD

Been a long, rocky road. Still owns it, unfortunately. The owners are committed to making this a success. The balance sheet is good now, and they're making small acquisitions. Hold or buy it now. He expects the company to go private of be sold. Good margins, but the wine industry has been hit hard in recent years (Covid, rising costs).

0
BUY ON WEAKNESS

The black sheep of Canada's big three grocers, but recent results were pretty good and that's raised the stock. Are improving costs and being more efficient. Same-store sales growth is flat, though. They lack a discount brand like Metro and Loblaw, and lack presence in pharmacies. That's why their PE is lower than their peers. Buy at $30-35, though. Well-managed, using technology well for deliveries.

food stores
BUY

Used to own this. The pipelines hold monopolies. They're in an excellent market position and pay an attractive dividend, which will do well as rates fall. Is a long-term hold.

pipelines
WEAK BUY

Wish he had owned more shares. They did a good job selling off assets after the competition forced them.  The easy money has been made, unless they buy companies that reduces dependency to oil/gas. 

oil / gas field services
BUY
MDA Ltd.

Bought it in the spring and a recent top pick. The space economy is booming (telcos and space travel). MDA is the world leader in the space space. A lot of room to grow; expects double-digit EBITDA growth over 5 years. They have the best technology to launch satellites as the cost of that has fallen.

electrical / electronic
COMMENT

Global markets are up mainly on the Magnificent 7, but the breadth is widening. he's very bullish stocks and bonds. Inflation ahs fallen to normal levels as central bank cut rates, rocket fuel for bonds as well as stocks. But the slowing economy and rising unemployment means pic your spots, avoiding sectors too dependent on the consumer. The Canadian market is driven by gold/minerals and energy and financials. The breadth is narrow here, but widening. He sees a soft landing of disinflation and deflation where CPI in Canada was recently negative. Overall, it's good for stocks and bonds. He doesn't touch commodities-- too volatile and can't control prices. China is in big trouble with the consumer losing in their real estate holdings and the consumer is hoarding cash. Today saw China's government issuing stimulus which gives short-term boost.

Unknown
BUY

Used to own this. The pipelines hold monopolies. They're in an excellent market position and pay an attractive dividend, which will do well as rates fall. Is a long-term hold.

pipelines
HOLD
EXE vs. CSH

EXE operates long-term care facilities which require a lot of capital, while CSH is more senior homes. CSH has been divesting lower-return investments to become more of a pure-play. You can charge whatever rent in a market if there's no competition. The seniors' population keeps growing. CSH is paying down debt, which was high a few years ago. In CSH, the easy money has been made, though. It could be a keeper, or take profits.

property mngmnt / investment
DON'T BUY
Extendicare Inc
EXE vs. CSH

EXE operates long-term care facilities which require a lot of capital, while CSH is more senior homes. CSH has been divesting lower-return investments to become more of a pure-play. You can charge whatever rent in a market if there's no competition. The seniors' population keeps growing. CSH is paying down debt, which was high a few years ago. In CSH, the easy money has been made, though. It could be a keeper, or take profits.

other services
PAST TOP PICK
Savaria Corp
(A Top Pick Sep 25/23, Up 52%)

Has owned this for a long time, since it was $5. Are the global leader in this space. Results this year are phenomenal with strong organic growth and increasing profit margins. Are becoming synergistic in their various businesses across US and Europe through cross-selling. Are reaching 19% EBITDA margins from supply chain optimization. Now, it's hitting all-time highs, but is a good long-term investment due to an aging population as people buy stairlifts and elevators. A lot of growth, top and bottom, ahead. Today, the chairman is selling shares, which doesn't scare him, because it doesn't change the fundamentals.

other services
PAST TOP PICK
MDF Commerce Inc.
(A Top Pick Sep 25/23, Up 63%)

It was bought out, an undervalued Canadian tech company as leaders in e-procurement in both Canada and the U.S. This stock was too cheap for too long, then KKR bought it last May. He thought the buying price was way too late.

computer software / processing
PAST TOP PICK
Velan Inc
(A Top Pick Sep 25/23, Down 37%)

They remain the leader in nuclear valves. Shockingly, the French government blocked an American company from buying this small Montreal company. So, the family decided to sell the company and he expects it will be at a higher price. Their backlog and margins are growing. He still owns it. Trades below tangible book value.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
DON'T BUY

The whole sector has been under fire from increased competition. Rogers holds a lot of debt. He owns Quebecor and Telus instead; the latter had tamed their debt and generate a lot of free cash. But Rogers keeps buying stuff over and over; will these media assets pay off? He prefers companies with less debt and more cash flow. The jury is out with BCE about sustaining their dividend (are selling assets to pay down their debt). Quebecor is his top pick in telcos: the only one that's made a good return this year, though Telus is a better long-term pick because of their big cash flow that will let them pull various levers. Don't buy Quebcor or the dividend, but for the growth.

Cable
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