Stockchase Opinions

Stephen Takacsy, B. Eng, MBA MDF Commerce Inc. MDF-T PAST TOP PICK Jul 26, 2023

(A Top Pick Jul 14/22, Up 117%)

Still likes it, tremendously undervalued. Leaders in Canada and US. 6% market share in US, a nascent market. Recently announced 2 significant US contracts. Robust pipeline of states looking to digitize. Trades at barely over 1x revenues. EBITDA positive, improving every quarter. Lots of room still.

$3.700

Stock price when the opinion was issued

computer software processing
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

BUY
Its main business is e-procurement and it had a big meltdown along with the tech rout. It is not only an e-commerce platform for large corporations but has several smaller businesses as well. It is trading well below the sum of its parts. It had a good offer for a very small division which would give it $67 million, basically its present market cap so it could pay off debt, have a net cash position and still keep its two main businesses. It is focused on improving profitability, EBITA and margins. There is lots of upside, maybe $6 or $7 in 12 to 18 months and $14 in the next five years.
BUY

Still owns it. Came down with all tech stocks, and they made a costly acquisition. Also have an e-commerce business with clients like Sobeys; he thinks MDF may sell this and become a pure e-procurement company. He sees upside, because they have valuable businesses they can sell. Shares remain cheap. Growth will resume in the US with a recently acquisition.

HOLD

eCommerce aggregation business.
Does not own stock.
Growth and profitability not strong enough.
Paying down debt which is good for the company.
High valuation would suggest better names to buy.

BUY

Good results last night. Turnaround in profitability, nice organic growth. Wouldn't be surprised if it was acquired. Great commerce platform in the US.

TOP PICK

It develops business to government and e-commerce platforms. It is the number one player in the U.S. and has some recent, very significant contract wins. It is a great turn-around story and is now profitable with positive free cash flow along with 80% of revenue being high margin. He sees good growth.             Buy 2  Hold 2  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $4.56)
COMMENT

It's gone through a couple of management team changes. There are better and more profitable places to be in technology.

HOLD

His biggest position. Not happy with KKR's offer of $5.80. Worth more. Still time for a higher bidder to come forward. Early days for digitizing procurement systems. De facto leader in that space. He's not selling, counting on biggest shareholder to negotiate a higher price.

COMMENT
How to spot the CEOs that shop their company around on the QT and then sell for a low price?

Not really the CEO driving the process. It would be the board's decision whether to sell a company or to replace management. You can read the circular that came out. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 25/23, Up 63%)

It was bought out, an undervalued Canadian tech company as leaders in e-procurement in both Canada and the U.S. This stock was too cheap for too long, then KKR bought it last May. He thought the buying price was way too late.