Major tech earnings are coming this week, so markets are tentative today. Will numbers be positive? Layoffs? Full-year-forecasts up or down? Q1 and Q2 earnings on the S&P have been negative, but Q3 has been positive, so the end of the year looks positive. But if earnings will be lower for the year, then earnings now are too high and need to come down. There's complacency in the market, given the VIX at 16, so volatility could happen in the next several months. Also, the market expects the US Fed to raise rates 25 points next week--the issue is inflation. Unlike the market, he expects rates to stay higher for longer later this year.
The problem with these drug companies is that they depend on their drugs coming off-patent, so do they have a pipeline to replace that? Prefers JNJ because it has other businesses to cushion that loss. PFE is defensive and pays a good dividend. Look for M&A developments too. Not trading at a high PE and are well-financed. Healthcare is highly defensive.
They ran into trouble recently by proposing to buy Kentucky Power, but the deal just died. AQN was smart to trim its dividend and they pledge to sell $1 billion of assets, which is the next thing to watch. How much will they receive? Pays a decent yield. The company is aware of its issues. Don't expect much growth here for a while. Collect the dividend and watch shares rise gradually. Ending the Kentucky deal was good; the balance sheet is better.
Some are looking at Apple the wrong way, citing supply chain problems, but those are going away because they're diversifying their manufacturing away from China. Their services is doing very well and growing. Wearable also is faring well and growing. Remember that margins in services are big and cover smaller margins in hardware. Also, they continue to buy back shares.
He likes Canadian banks. TD has fallen alot over concerns of their First Horizon deal in the U.S. not closing, but regulators would want Horizon to be in strong hands (TD) after what's happened with SVB, etc. Canadian banks are very different from US ones, given heavier regulation here. Canadian banks are safe. TD has great retail operations in Canada and US. He expects the Horizon deal to happen and benefit TD.