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COMMENT
Earnings seasons and double-digit profit declines (i.e. Air Canada): earnings are dreadful or not as bad as feared, depending on your expectations. Anyway, he's conditioned for earnings to be down a lot, and forecasts were slashed earlier. It's a market of winners vs. losers. Winners: big tech mostly in the U.S. and Shopify here, and gold stocks. Losers: banks struggling with loan loss provisions, and oil given low prices. The gold rally is legit and it's onwards and upwards--gold rallies in troubles times and now certainly is. We'll see Canadian Q3 banks report later this month; banks will be pressured by narrow interest margins and of course loan loss provisions, though business loan deferrals may cushion the blow.
BUY
A power producer that was coal generator in Alberta before, but the government snuffed coal power production (and paid transitional payments). Since then, the company has morphed into nat-gas and renewables using those payments. Strong earnings, up 20% as reported last week. They raised their dividend 7% for the 7th straight year. CPS has recovered nicely since the March low. There's more in the tank to grow. It's attracting more ESG investing, which is a tailwind. Good company and growth.
electrical utilities
BUY
An acquirer of private businesses and long-established. Strong managers. They began expanding into distresses credit, so there could be opportunities now. They bought Gluskin-Sheff, a private wealth manager for the rich which they rescued from floundering. Synergy here is good. ONEX is a fine company, though pays little in dividends. You can buy this.
mngmntdiversified
COMMENT
What to buy in gold? Gold as a commodity is enigmatic. Sometimes it behaves like a currency. Sometimes it trades in synch with the market, but historically is a haven during turbulence. In gold mining, there are far, far more bad companies than good compared to other industries. Be careful owning miners--there be strikes, labour problems, landslides. Look at GLD or buying the bullion. He prefers owning a royalty play. On a given day, some mining stocks will rise while others fall. Be conservative. Don't buy junior minors if you're a novice in gold.
investment companiesfunds
HOLD
In Canada, the big banks are good value creators over time. However, he prefers geographic and business diversification, and CM is underdeveloped in the U.S. despite a recent purchase down there. Their asset management is a fee-based business so it isn't effected by low interest rates or loan loss provisions. Their large exposure to lending and deposit activities is a disadvantage. Historically, the big banks yield double-digit returns, including dividend, and CM grows its dividend at 7-8% yearly--but not every year, not this year. If you own, then hold. If not, look at another Canadian bank.
banks
BUY
BCE vs. Telus The dividends are as safe as it gets, bolstered by the work-from-home trend and people using more data. Telus has a home security monitoring which ties in with their connected internet of things theme, and a telehealth business which will likely grow in coming years. Both companies are good and even in quality--can't choose one. It's splitting hairs.
Brian MaddenOwned
telephone utilities
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 07/19, Up 11%)Was a 2-1 stock split in this period, so total return was 11% He's followed this for a long, long time, and the stock has split many times. Disappointed that they lost to Marathon Petroleum in a deal today, but ATD are prudent buyers and will buy something. Respects the managers and their strategy.
Brian MaddenOwned
food stores
BUY
He owns ATD-B instead, but PKI is a great, profitable company. The dividend will grow and the company is a great buyer of assets and opportunities may lie ahead in the wake of today's Marathon deal.
merchandisinglodging
BUY
Open Text vs. Docebo He prefers OTEX, hands-down. OTEX is a former top pick. Likes their strategy and cloud-based business. They're an active acquirer of other businesses. Offers decent organic growth, not as good as Shopify but with a far lower PE than the latter around 15x. A stable cash flow, too.
Brian MaddenOwned
computer softwareprocessing
BUY
They own air carriers and industrial businesses. The former is challenged, but the latter will weather this recession much better. They just announced a big acquisition of a company that installs glass in high-rises. They acquire well. The dividend is safe.
Brian MaddenOwned
Transportation & Environmental Services
BUY
A major insurer. Their biggest expense is going down hard--auto claims. With people under lockdown, people aren't driving much, so the quantity of auto claims is lower than ever based on Q2 results. This boasts their underwriting profit and will be a tailwind for a long while. They're also generating investing income, which may be pressured with interest rates low. IFC is a great company and marketer. A fine consolidator in a fragmented industry. A solid, long-term hold and a buy.
insurance
DON'T BUY
An enigmatic stock with 40% ownership by Chinese industrial concerns who may be treating this as a long-term call option on successful and profitable fuel cell solutions. They never really made money and still don't today. Without that track record, he won't buy. It's for speculative investors.
misc industrial products
TOP PICK
Still likes it and has long owned it. ATD is dominant in convenience stores across North America and Europe. They may expand to Asia and Australia. They use procurements scale to price sharply on gas which attracts shoppers into their modern stores, which enjoy high gross margins on cigarettes, coffee and snacks, which boast margins 3-5x higher than gas. ATD is a great acquirer, but are moving more into organic growth which attracts a higher multiple for investors. (Analysts’ price target is $45.85)
Brian MaddenOwned
food stores
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