TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 7/08. Down 6.3.) Converted from an income trust to a Corp and pays a dividend. Likes the play in the Bakken oilfields Southeast Saskatchewan. Positive on oil and thinks it could average $80 in 2010.
TOP PICK
7% US$ bond maturing Feb 15/28 and currently yielding 11%+. Seeing a trend in the US where online sales are up (about 12%) as well as same-store sales growth for companies like this.
TOP PICK
Great management team. Benefited from a great slate of movies in the first half of 2009 with another strong slate coming in the 2nd half. People are returning to movies versus going on luxury vacations, buying new cars, etc. 7.6% yield should be safe.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 7/08.) 7% bonds maturing Dec 31/12. Started seeing serious deterioration in the businesses underlying the company and sold the bonds quite some time ago.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 7/08. Down 85%.) He sold his equity holdings but bought the high yield bonds and gets about 20% yield. Not much debt and have almost 100 rigs to back up the debt. $2.75 in 12 months is not too far off.
HOLD
50/50 split between oil and gas Very solid management team. Good quality suite of assets. Dominant swing factor for them are holdings in the Montney region, particularly Dawson Creek. Natural gas prices are hovering around $2.50. Not economical for them but does not detract from the longer-term value. Could be some short-term volatility.
WATCH
Very good management team. Big swing factor for them is the decreased activity in real estate, particularly commercial. Starting to see signs that commercial real estate developers are trying to spend more money. Expect they will do quite well in the longer run on the rebound. Doesn't think yield of 16% will be cut but there is the potential. Quarterly results are due August 11 so see what they say about coming quarters.
HOLD
More weighted to natural gas. With natural gas prices hovering around $2.50 it is somewhat problematic for them. Have a very good property in Sundance and this is what you need to stick with in times of volatile commodity prices.
BUY
Slightly more weighted to natural gas. Very decent hedge book. Sold forward much of their natural gas for 2009 and part of 2010. Also sold forward much of their oil. This should help them maintain their distributions for the rest of 2009 at least. 11.75% distribution.
HOLD
Trades at a slight premium to some of its peers in the US but do have a tax-free distribution until 2011. Has been a beneficiary of Alberta's threat to raise alcohol taxes as people rushed out to buy. Government has repealed this tax, which will benefit them in the long run. Once they are taxable in 2011 13.75% distributions will probably come under fire at about 20%.
COMMENT
Has done very well as people have reduced spending and doing more shopping in malls. This is a royalty trust structure and will be very taxable in 2011. 15% distribution.
HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) Interesting things happening.
WATCH
Companies that are currently structured as REITs will have to come under tighter guidelines to continue to qualify. Business that is held under the REIT unit structure has to be passive in nature so it is a long that borderline. Watch to see what management does.
WATCH
Companies that are currently structured as REITs will have to come under tighter guidelines to continue to qualify. Business that is held under the REIT unit structure has to be passive in nature so it is a long that borderline. Thinks this one can easily restructure so it is not a concern to him. Watch to see what management does.
COMMENT
31% distribution indicates market is expecting a cut. Has a CPA agreement with Air Canada that provides them with a minimum amount of block hours. Amounts to about an 85% payout ratio so there is not much danger of a cut. Starting to look better as unions have ratified an agreement allowing Air Canada to operate outside of bankruptcy proceedings. Have also renegotiated bank lines. Starting to look at this and may Buy shortly.