COMMENT
Markets this year.

Question is whether we've had a jackrabbit start, or is it a dead cat? Stocks that were off the hardest in 2022 have rebounded the most early this year, largely because you had the exaggerated effect of tax-loss selling in December. 

COMMENT
Interest rates.

People say maybe central banks aren't going to raise rates so much and it's not going to be quite so bad, and they bid up the fallen stocks again. Where to from here? The determining factor is going to be interest rates. People are saying that the banks may not raise by so much, they've done enough, but let's do the math. The Fed funds rate is around 5%, inflation is around 7%. He's not sure how 2% below inflation is restrictive monetary policy. How is 1 year of raising rates going to undo 25 years, since the long-term capital crisis of 1998, of flooding the market with capital. 

COMMENT
Hard or soft US recession?

Everyone's talking as though recession is what matters to markets. What matters to markets is corporate earnings. Interesting period here, when it's the first time in 30 years that companies have had the ability to raise prices and have those price increases stick.

WEAK BUY
CM vs. BNS

A bit like chalk and cheese. CM is the most domestic and Canadian bank. BNS is the most international, especially in Latin America. BNS has more risk because of all that could go wrong in developing countries. CM has more risk because it rarely has found a log that it couldn't trip itself over. Invest with the one that you bank with. It will at least be emotionally satisfying, as your bank charges will be covered by dividends, which will increase regardless.

WEAK BUY
BNS vs. CM

A bit like chalk and cheese. CM is the most domestic and Canadian bank. BNS is the most international, especially in Latin America. BNS has more risk because of all that could go wrong in developing countries. CM has more risk because it rarely has found a log that it couldn't trip itself over. Invest with the one that you bank with. It will at least be emotionally satisfying, as your bank charges will be covered by dividends, which will increase regardless.

COMMENT
Canadian banks.

Banks are off anywhere between 15-30%. Better to have shares of the bank than to have money on deposit with the bank, even with GIC rates where they are. He thinks interest rates are going higher. Bank earnings have been weaker than expected. Bank earnings are easily manipulated. Invest with the one that you bank with. It will at least be emotionally satisfying, as your bank charges will be covered by dividends, which will increase regardless.

WEAK BUY

Amongst the telecom players, BCE has its 6% dividend, RCI.B has a 3% dividend but perhaps a more robust growth rate and more diversified income stream. Telus is in the middle with a 4% yield. Doesn't know if it has the growth trajectory to give you superior returns. Sure, it'll be fine, but the other two are better bets.

BUY

6% dividend yield. A better bet than Telus. 

BUY

3% dividend, but perhaps a more robust growth rate and more diversified income stream than others. A better bet than Telus.

HOLD

Not one of his better moves, but he's still holding. Trying to get the Kentucky deal done. In a perfect world, the deal doesn't go through. Need to get debt down and rebuild confidence with investors. Dividend cut did not help. Got ahead of their skis. 

HOLD
EVs are charged mostly at home. Wouldn't this hurt business?

Excellent question. It's a ways in the future. Canada will stop selling internal combustion by 2035, but the vehicles will be around well into the 2040s. EVs are not going to put ATD out of business anytime in the investible future. Lots of runway left, same as for energy companies.

WAIT

GOOG used to have a motto, "Don't be evil." Then quietly, they said don't worry about that. Future remains to be seen. Every tech that seemed to have had a natural monopoly faces competition. ChatGPT is that competition right now. Wait till you see a plan that you can understand as to how GOOG will retake dominance. 

HOLD

Real estate is going to be challenged. BN is primarily in the property business, which is still booming. Interest rates will be an issue, but it may take 5-10 years to be felt by the big players. Inflation and interest rates will change how people value properties. Work from home won't have as big an impact as believed. 

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Mar 30/22, Down 20%)

Benefits from trading activity, and volumes have been down. Sell your losers, and let your winners run.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 30/22, Up 23%)

Most boring tech on earth. Electrification of the world will be a big boost for it. Chart just goes up and to the right. Part of a theme of the onshoring of America. Likely to own for a while.