Brendan CaldwellAlphabet IncGOOGWAITMar 01, 2023

Their fund has held it for years and years. Gemini models show it'll be a leader in generative AI. Trading 26-27x PE, fairly fully valued. 

Their cloud remains one of the fastest-growing businesses in tech. AI continues to make search better.

They join the Dow on Monday which will give it a brief bounce. Key staff leaving hurt the stock earlier this week. Likes GOOG a lot. 

Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.

A Hold for him today instead of a Buy, just on valuation (~30x PE). Very robust growth outlook. To add, wait for a bit of a pullback -- the potential for valuation upside gives you less risk, and you can't expect multiple expansion from current price point.

Fantastic year. Recently pulled a bit back from peak. Gemini has been exceptional. Ancillary assets deserve attention. Great long-term hold.

AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem. 

Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.

Still one of the highest-quality businesses in the world. Wide range of opportunities despite the runup. Cloud has been doing extremely well. Reasonable valuation. 9/10 on fundamentals. Regulatory scrutiny a potential risk. Massive user base, proprietary data.

First quarter since Covid it didn't buy back stock. Raised capex by $5B. Gemini is outstanding, leading it to win at Search as well as to concrete monetization. Only trading at 22x PE for 2028 and 17% growth. Stock still works, more to go.

A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.

Will lose market share on Search. But it's a story of a much bigger pie, so their eventual benefit will be much greater. Pulled AI into the Search model, and Gemini is in a leadership position. Multiple in the high 20s still undemanding. Spits out lots of cash. Lots of irons in the fire.

Completely vertically integrated -- owns the silicon, the best models, awesome distribution platform. Search was declared dead in the water, but revenue is actually growing. A more comfortable pick than MSFT.

Given its networks, will be a direct beneficiary from AI. Expensive, and has to grow into its multiple. So many divisions at play. Yield is 0.22%.

Popped so much on earnings because it's the clear winner on AI. Eclipsed ChatGPT in the ability to advertise on AI and to integrate everything.

They turned in a great report about Google cloud which surprised him. They've improved margin despite spending aggressively in building their cloud.